Elections in Iraq were never going to be peaceful, but they did not need to be an all-out war on voters either. Mr Allawi's Rocket the Vote campaign is the direct result of a disastrous decision made one year ago. On November 11 2003, Paul Bremer, then chief US envoy to Iraq, flew to Washington to meet George Bush. The two men were concerned that if they kept their promise to hold elections in Iraq within the coming months, the country would fall into the hands of insufficiently pro-American forces. "Die, then vote. This is Falluja" - Naomi Klein

11/30/2004 The mood in Sunni communities makes its likely that they will be underrepresented if the Iraqi election occurs in January. Anger over the US attack on Falluja and threats to those engaged in voter registration have resulted in a low number of Sunnis registering to vote.
Iraq's US-backed Shiite parties have insisted that polls must go ahead on 30 January, rejecting calls by other parties and politicians to postpone them. But Shiite unity does not extend to the candidates. A group of 38 Shiite Muslim political parties broke off negotiations Tuesday with backers of Sistani, claiming a candidate list under discussion was dominated by religious extremists. Sistani had assigned a committee of six of his aides to try to put together a unified Shiite ticket for the Jan 30 national election.
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11/26/2004: Leading Iraqi political parties, including the group led by former presidential candidate Adnan Pachachi and the two main Kurdish parties (the KDP and the PUK), have signed a petition calling for the planned 30 January elections to be delayed. Muqtada al-Sadr has accused the Iraqi government of violating terms of the deal that brought an end to fighting in Najaf. He also accuses the government of conspiring with two major Shiite parties, Dawa and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), to marginalize al-Sadr's movement and prevent its clerics from speaking in mosques. The clash between Mr. Sadr and the two major Shiite establishment parties comes as Sistani is trying to bring all the Shiite political groups together to present a unified slate of candidates for the national elections.

11/21/2004:It has been announced that Iraq will hold national elections on Jan. 30th. "Those planning the transitional process appeared not to have taken the Muslim calendar into consideration" since the election campaign will coincide with the haj in mid-January, and "the transit of several million pilgrims from Muslim countries such as Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan overland through Iraq to Mecca". American military officials have said that they plan to extend tours of duty in Iraq and to increase troop levels in Iraq through the elections.

11/19/2004: Iraq's deputy prime minister has indicated for the first time that the much-heralded elections due in January could be derailed by the country's violent insurgency. 47 Iraqi political parties and related bodies have decided to boycott the election saying the election results are a foregone conclusion, with rewards already lined up for the parties collaborating with the occupation. The parties that have said they will boycott the election include not just Sunni Islamist ones, but others like the National Arab Current, the Iraqi-Turkoman Front, the Democratic Christian Party and the communist People’s Union party, as well as Shi'a parties. The Association of Muslim Scholars (AMS) has warned that the situation in Falluja will directly affect the elections and even delay the process.
It is hard to see how any election can seen by Iraqis as "free and fair" when the media is now being heavily censored and leaders of even nonviolent opposition groups are being intimidated and arrested. On Tuesday November 16th, US forces arrested Naseer Ayaef, the deputy head of Iraq's interim parliament and a high-ranking member of the Iraqi Islamic Party despite the fact that as the deputy speaker of the national council (parliament) he was supposed to enjoy immunity. The arrest was linked to pressure exerted on the Iraqi Islamic Party because of its opposition to the military offensive against Falluja.
Not all groups in Iraq oppose the upcoming election. Deputies of Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani have warned Shia that they risk going to hell if they fail to participate in the January 2005 elections. His tacit approval of the US led onslaught on Falluja has been seen by some as being driven by his desire to gain ground against the Sunnis (and gain ground in the eyes of the US State Department) ahead of the January vote. Many Kurds also hope to gain since the two Kurdish political parties (the KDP and the PUK) are among the most organized parties in the country. Some of the Asyrian minority also seem to support the election. The US has made it so Iraqis living abroad will be allowed to vote and this could benefit Shiites, Kurds and other minorities that left Iraq under Sunni Arab rule. The $90mn allocated for overseas voting could also allow the US to rig the election by registering pro-US Kurds and Assyrians living in the US and Europe.
The US election strategy of pitting various ethnic groups against each other could lead the country towards civil war. Insurgents bent on undermining Iraq's American-backed interim government have carried out a campaign of assassinations against public officials they see as collaborating with the U.S. presence in the country. On November 13th, gunmen killed the Shi’ite Muslim mayor of a Baghdad suburb and on November 14th, a prominent official of the Iraqi Communist Party was gunned down with two of his bodyguards outside of Baghdad. US use of Kurdish fighters to attack cities like Mosul have lead to revenge attacks against Kurds. Attacks on Christians are also on the rise.
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