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From the Open-Publishing Calendar
From the Open-Publishing Newswire
Indybay Feature
Thu Oct 12 2006 (Updated 10/16/06)
655,000 Iraqis Killed Since US Invasion, Majority In This Past Year
Thu Oct 12 2006 (Updated 10/16/06)
Between 420,000 and 790,000 Iraqis Killed Since US Invasion
A Johns Hopkins study published in UK Journal The Lancet estimates that 655,000 more Iraqis have died as a result of war and political violence since March, 2003 than would have died if mortality rates had remained the same as during 2002. The number was calculated using a random sampling of households throughout Iraq in a similar fashion to what is done after natural disasters. While the number of additional deaths in the first year after the war was likely over 100,000 a significant finding of the study was that the death rate in the past year is more than twice what it was in the first year of occupation and over half the total additional deaths are from this past year alone.

Links to copies of the study in PDF format: 1 | 2

The study found that between January 2002 and March 2003 (before the US invasion), the mortality rate in Iraq was 5.5 per thousand per year (with a 95% probablity that the true number was between 4.3 and 7.1) from all causes, with almost none of this reported as being due to violence.

Between March 2003 and April 2004, the mortality rate was 7.5 deaths per thousand people per year (with a 95% probablity that the true number was between 5.8 and 9.7), with approximately 4.5 deaths per thousand per year resulting from violence.

Between March 2004 and April 2005, the mortality rate was 10.9 deaths per thousand per year (with a 95% probablity that the true number was between 8.1 and 14.0), with approximately 6.6 deaths per thousand per year resulting from violence.

Between March 2005 and April 2006, the mortality rate was 19.8 deaths per thousand per year (with a 95% probablity that the true number was between 14.6 and 26.7), with approximately 12.0 deaths per thousand per year resulting from violence.

For the total post war period this comes out to 13.2 deaths per thousand Iraqis per year with approximately 7.2 deaths per thousand per year comming from violence. Applying this to the Iraqi population one comes up with an estimated 655,000 (with a 95% probablity that the true number was between 420,000 and 790,000 ) Iraqis who have died as a result of violence after the US invasion compared to prewar values.

While the estimated mortality in the post war years from violence was 12 per thousand, this number wasn't constant across the whole of Iraq. The areas which have averaged greater than 10 deaths per thousand per year by violence in the post-war years were only the Sunni governorates, with estimated death rates by violence below 2 per thousand per year in some Shia and Kurdish governorates. Across all of Iraq, 56% of the violent deaths were due to gunshots, 13% car bombs, 14% other explosives and 13% airstrikes.

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