Arctic ice melt to threaten Florida, scientists say

Arctic ice melt to threaten Florida, scientists say
Last Updated Mon, 08 Nov 2004 21:33:22 EST
TORONTO - The pace of the Arctic ice melt is accelerating, proving climate change is occurring more rapidly than previously thought, scientists say.

The development threatens to raise global water levels and submerge low-lying regions around the world, including parts of Florida and already flood-prone Bangladesh.




This also throws in doubt the survival of numerous species of animals, and of the fragile cultures of northern aboriginal peoples around the world, says a new study.

The grim assessment is the conclusion of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, a study being published Tuesday at the International Scientific Symposium on Climate Change in Reykjavik, Iceland.
More than 300 scientists from 15 countries – including Canada – and six aboriginal groups have contributed to the four-year study measuring how fast the Arctic is warming up.

It suggests the Arctic is warming at twice the global average rate and temperatures there could be 4-7 degrees Celsius higher by 2100. Siberia and Alaska have already warmed by 2 to 3 degrees since 1950.

The report suggests summer sea ice around the North Pole may almost disappear by the end of the century. Ice around the pole has already receded by about 15 to 20 per cent over the last 30 years, and the ice melt, increasing rain and receding permafrost are likely to raise sea levels in future, according to the report.

Robert Correll, the American chair of the International Arctic Science Committee, says, "Assuming that the climate does warm at about three degrees centigrade, which is kind of in the middle of all the projections we have, we believe ... we're talking about the sea level rising at rate of about a metre every 50 years or so."

That's a much faster rate than previously thought. The problem, the report says, is everyday greenhouse gas emissions from industries and activities such as burning fossil fuels.

Foreign ministers of the eight-nation Arctic Council, which includes Canada and the United States, are due to meet to discuss the report on Nov. 24 in Reykjavik. But there are reports of deep divisions on the council on environmental issues and on treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol for cutting greenhouse gas emissions, which the U.S. has declined to support .

Scientists predict the marine environment is likely to change the most. The number of species dependent on sea ice, including seals and polar bears, could decline. Some could even become extinct.

Under the scenario described in the assessment, the polar bear is "unlikely" to survive, while land-based northern species including caribou, muskox and reindeer would find their habitats severely reduced.


Robert Correll
The report has already caught the attention of Inuit groups, who fear the rapidly melting ice will mean trouble for their way of life. The Inuit rely on a cold climate and the species who thrive in it for food, shelter and clothing.

"From my point of view the powerful message is that the Arctic is really impacted, and the people are really impacted — but this is a global phenomenon," Correll says. He argues the Arctic is the way to understand what is happening to the rest of the world.

Correll says the impact of rising water levels could be devastating.

"It will eliminate about the lower 15 or 20 per cent of Florida." An extra metre of water, he says, "will eliminate 40 per cent of the land mass of Bangladesh."

Inuit leaders say the global effort to battle Arctic climate change should start in Canada. They are calling for Ottawa to make changes, including cutting greenhouse gas emissions to below levels already agreed to under the Kyoto Protocol.

Written by CBC News Online staff