This is What Winning Looks Like

We are going to win, this much is clear. Not because love is stronger than hate, not because of our unquenchable passion for freedom, but because our enemies are all dumber than a box of hammers. Maybe even two boxes. Anyone who doubts this need only review the events of the past two weeks.

Let's start with the Epstein files. Just for fun, we'll look at how, in a parallel universe, a sane and rational administration might have handled the fact that their boss had been best buds with the world's most notorious sex trafficker. During the campaign this mythological chimaera might have deemphasized Epstein, never bringing up the files himself, and responding to questions about them with vague platitudes about transparency and the need for a full investigation. Once in office, our fantasy PR team would have advised releasing files in dribs and drabs, pleading the need for careful redaction while feigning worries about defamation suits and personal privacy. The least damaging material would be revealed first, with selected pedophiles (mostly Democrats) slated for sacrifice to protect the greater good. Such a strategy might well have gotten alterna-Trump through the midterms, and maybe all the way to 2028, but we'll never know for sure.

Back in this universe, spare a tear for Amy Poehler. In a triumphant return to Saturday Night Live, Poehler skewered Pam Bondi in what at the time looked like a savage parody -- only for Bondi herself to go in front of a House panel and deliver a performance so deranged it made Poehler look like Janet Reno by comparison. Bondi's unhinged rant launched a thousand DOW AT FIFTY THOUSAND memes, and the image of her ignoring the Epstein survivors in the back of the room will be a permanent stain on her legacy. For the cherry on top, the internet swiftly coughed up a 2014 ad from Bondi's reelection campaign for Florida Attorney General in which she pledged to "...fight to put human trafficking monsters where they belong, behind bars."

You might think Bondi was a lock to take home the Embarassing Cabinet Secretary gold medal at the Winter Cringelympics, but you would be wrong. ICE Barbie Kristi Noem, Secretary of Homeland Security, is matching Bondi stride for stride. Not only does Noem regularly commandeer a $70 million government jet for trips around the country with her boyfriend, Corey Lewandowski, but there's a love shack built into the back of the airplane for the couple's trysts. On a recent trip, Lewandowski fired the jet's pilot for leaving Noem's blanket behind when the party had to change planes, only to hire the guy back a few hours later because no one else could fly them home. Noem also routinely screams at her staff for not getting her on television as much as "immigration czar" Tom Homan.

Noem and Bondi have even managed to outdo the two cabinet secretaries who are actually in the Epstein files - Howard Lutnick of Commerce and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from Health and Human Services. Even Kennedy's casual admission on a podcast that he "...used to snort cocaine off toilet seats" couldn't get him into the media spotlight last week. Hell, he'd have to put coke at the top of the government's revamped food pyramid to even have a chance. For his part, Lutnick has to be congratulating himself on dodging a bullet. His story about having dumped Epstein in 2005 was completely blown out of the water by the latest batch of files, but most of the fury that might have been directed at him has instead gone toward his more flamboyant colleagues. Pro tip: Being boring can be a real advantage sometimes.

An honorable mention goes to Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who got caught shielding Jared Kushner's communications with Iran from her own agencies AND showed up in person for some bizarre reason at the FBI's raid on Fulton County, Georgia's election files. Scott Bessent of Treasury put in a sincere but middling effort, admitting Trump's lawsuit against the IRS would end up costing taxpayers $10 billion. Pete Hegseth of Defense looked like an early contender after Signalgate, but has kept a disappointingly low profile since.

None of this would matter much if Trump's merry band of fuckups was better at their actual jobs than they are at public relations, but luckily that's not a problem. Nearly lost in the hilarity of the Wall Street Journal's hit piece on Noem were a couple of very interesting admissions. One, Lewandowski has been pushing for a wholesale change in contractors, demanding nearly every service purchased by DHS come from a new vendor. And two, quoting the article, "The pair have fired or demoted roughly 80% of the career ICE field leadership that was in place when they started." It was already known that Noem requires all expenditures over $100,000 to obtain her personal approval. No organization the size of DHS can withstand this kind of upheaval and micromanaging unscathed. Institutional memory and informal networks are essential to managing large hierarchies -- if everything was done by the book, nothing would get done at all. By taking a jackhammer to the institutional foundations of DHS, Noem is ensuring the department will grow increasingly dysfunctional.

The effect is being seen in the trenches. A subreddit for ICE agents has been flooded with complaints about missing paychecks. No one seems to have gotten their 50K signing bonus, and many officers report not even receiving their regular salary. It's not only ICE agents who aren't getting paid. The WSJ also reports that Florida is still waiting on compensation for building the Alligator Alcatraz concentration camp, and Noem isn't returning state officials' phone calls.

Meanwhile, over at DOJ morale and staffing have plummeted. Bondi began her tenure by firing dozens of FBI agents who had been assigned to investigate Trump during the Biden administration. A few days ago, several federal prosecutors in Minnesota resigned over the department's handling of the murders of Renee Good and Alex Pretti. A recent article on DOJ staffing issues in the New York Times uses phrases like "denigrated, distracted and depleted work force" and "struggling to keep pace." Justice Connection, a support group for struggling DOJ employees (yes, really!) even has a timeline of Bondi and Trump's ravages of their workplace.

While the Times estimates the DOJ's total losses constitute only about five percent of its massive employee base, not all those who remain are doing anything resembling their old jobs. ICE has borrowed thousands of federal law enforcement personnel from across the department to help with its invasion of Minneapolis and other cities. In addition, hundreds of FBI agents were recently pulled from investigative work to help cross out the names of rich pedophiles in Epstein's emails.

The chaos has taken its toll on effectiveness. Bondi's difficulties in securing indictments against Trump's political opponents are well documented, but the rot has affected the DOJ's ability to investigate actual crimes as well. Believe it or not, the FBI used to be good at catching kidnappers. Really good in fact, to the point that holding rich people hostage for ransom was virtually unheard of in the US because it was considered impossible to pull off. Two weeks ago someone decided to give it another shot, abducting the mother of NBC anchorwoman Savannah Guthrie from her Arizona home. The FBI still has nothing. Agents have detained one individual who turned out to have nothing to do with the crime, raided two houses that turned out to have nothing to do with the crime, and have even resorted to testing DNA from random winter gloves found on the side of nearby roads. So far none of the gloves have turned out to have anything to do with the crime. Even if they finally make an arrest, the Bureau's reputation for swift apprehension of kidnappers will lie in tatters.

The take home here is that it's much easier to break things than to fix them. Chaos and disorganization lead to disgruntlement, disengagement, and eventually resignations. Constant churn in turn breeds more disorganization and chaos, in a self perpetuating cycle that traps top-heavy organizations in eternal dysfunction. Individual pain points like payroll processing can sometimes be eliminated with heroic applications of money and verbal abuse, but the basic problem can only be solved if everyone involved is motivated and empowered to do so - and both motivation and empowerment are in short supply in federal law enforcement these days. Even if Tom Homan takes over at DHS, repairing Noem's damage will be impossible in the short and probably medium terms. Justice is in similar straits.

They can't keep this up much longer. Trump is only 27 percent of the way through his term, and the wheels are coming off already. His approval rating has gotten so low Gallup stopped measuring it, and Democrats are romping to victory in special elections even in red states. Not only is Trump going down in flames, but the federal law enforcement apparatus that has been so instrumental in maintaining racialized capitalism will be crippled for years after he's gone. David Graeber's classic essay The Shock of Victory laments the tendency of radicals not to recognize when they've won, citing the example of the global justice movement in the early years of the twenty-first century. Let's not make the same mistake this time around.