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In search of good headlines
The US intensifies its military threats against Venezuela
Under the pretext of fighting drugs, President Donald Trump is escalating military threats against Venezuela and openly threatening attacks on land. The US government appears determined to bring about regime change, even though the majority of the US population is against it.
By Jan Tölva
[This article posted on 12/11/2025 is translated from the German on the Internet, https://jungle.world/artikel/2025/50/usa-militaerische-drohungen-gegen-venezuela-auf-der-suche-nach-guten-schlagzeilen.]

An image from a U.S. Southern Command video of the air strike on an alleged smuggler boat in the eastern Pacific, in which four people were killed, on December 4.
Image:
U.S. Southern Command / Press Release / Lethal Kinetic Strike, Dec. 4, 2025

It is rare enough for US President Donald Trump to be right about what he says. But when he said in an interview with CBS television in early November that Nicolás Maduro's days as president of Venezuela were numbered, he may have been right. The situation is becoming increasingly difficult for Maduro, who has been in office for over twelve years and is suspected of electoral fraud.

Even during his first term in office, Trump made no secret of his dislike for Maduro. He imposed harsh sanctions and recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's interim president in 2019, as the US considered the 2018 presidential election there to be rigged.

However, since Trump moved back into the White House in January, he no longer seems willing to settle for sanctions and symbolic politics. The signs point to military escalation.

Whether Trump actually wants to invade Venezuela is something even he himself probably doesn't know. The fact is, however, that his administration is gradually expanding its military operations.

On his first day in office, Trump declared the transnational criminal organization “Tren de Aragua” a foreign terrorist organization by executive order. The Cártel de los Soles, which operates in the same industry, was first sanctioned as a terrorist organization by the Treasury Department in July and then declared a foreign terrorist organization by Secretary of State Marco Rubio in November. Even though he has not yet been mentioned in official documents, the Trump administration considers Maduro to be the head of the Cártel de los Soles, which, according to US sources, recruits from the Venezuelan security forces and armed forces, and thus a narco-terrorist.

However, experts are divided on whether the cartel really exists as a centralized, structured organization. Contrary to what the US authorities believed, the name Cártel de los Soles, which refers to the sun-shaped insignia of Venezuelan generals, is nothing more than a metaphor for widespread corruption in Venezuela. It is a catchy term that was readily adopted by the local media as early as 1993 – long before Maduro's predecessor Hugo Chávez came to power in 1999 – when two high-ranking military officers were investigated for drug trafficking.

Ultimately, however, it is irrelevant whether or not there is a formally organized cartel. It is highly unlikely that the military, which is involved in virtually every relevant business in Venezuela, has no involvement in the lucrative drug trade. Maduro himself is also likely to be involved in illegal activities. His fortune is estimated at between one and two million dollars – difficult to explain given his monthly salary of around 4,000 US dollars, but on the other hand a modest amount for a man who is said to play a leading role in the billion-dollar drug trade.

Memories of the 2003 invasion of Iraq
And yet the way in which the US government is trying to incriminate Maduro and his government is strikingly reminiscent of the verbal acrobatics of President George W. Bush's administration before the 2003 invasion of Iraq, even if the accusations were completely different. Back then, too, there was no doubt that Saddam Hussein was an autocrat and a criminal. However, the specific allegations against him that were used to justify the war quickly evaporated.

Then, as now, the US government appears determined to bring about regime change. According to CBS, 70 percent of the US population surveyed is currently opposed to a direct military attack on Venezuela. In 2003, too, the majority was long opposed to an invasion—until February 5, when Secretary of State Colin Powell attempted to prove to the UN Security Council, using a PowerPoint presentation, that Iraq was hiding weapons of mass destruction. Years later, he himself admitted that much of what he had claimed later turned out to be false.

In the US, however, support for an invasion rose noticeably at the time, and suddenly a majority was in favor.

Whether Trump actually wants to invade Venezuela is something that probably not even he himself knows. The fact is, however, that his administration is gradually expanding its military operations. At the end of August, the U.S. Navy began deploying additional ships to the Caribbean. On September 2, a Venezuelan boat was attacked and sunk for the first time, allegedly for smuggling drugs. There have now been more than 20 such attacks, with more than 80 deaths.

“Non-international armed conflict with irregular combatants”
In early December, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed media reports that survivors of a sunken ship were deliberately killed in a second attack in September. Most experts consider this to be a war crime. However, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who had previously boasted about the success, denied any blame. He said that it was not he himself who was responsible, but the commander in charge, Admiral Frank M. Bradley.

However, this is no longer just about attacks on speedboats. On October 2, Trump told Congress that the US was in a “non-international armed conflict with irregular combatants.” On October 15, Trump said he had authorized covert CIA operations inside Venezuela and spoke for the first time about attacking targets on land. On October 30, the Wall Street Journal reported that the US had identified potential targets in Venezuela. On November 27, Trump said on camera that there would be attacks on land “very soon.” On November 29, he posted on Truth Social that the airspace over Venezuela should be considered “completely closed.”

Everything points to the president, who is struggling domestically, wanting direct military confrontation. Trump may simply need some good news at last. His peace plan for the Gaza Strip is not developing as desired, the cost of living is rising at home, and Trump's approval ratings in polls have fallen to just over 40 percent. In addition, following a nearly unanimous decision by Congress, the publication of the so-called Epstein files, which could significantly incriminate Trump, is still pending in December.

Free access to Venezuela's rich mineral resources
Meanwhile, the Democrats find themselves in a dilemma. On the one hand, they do not want to take sides with Maduro, but on the other hand, they do not want further military escalation. For the time being, they are therefore retreating to procedural issues. In the Senate, they have introduced a bill that would prohibit the president from using military force unless there is a declaration of war or “specific authorization.”

What could still prevent a direct armed conflict, assuming Trump actually wants one and isn't just bluffing, would be Maduro's voluntary withdrawal. In mid-November, Trump spoke with him personally on the phone; details were not disclosed, and Trump appeared open to further talks. With a possible new government, Trump could then broker an agreement on what is probably really at stake: free access to Venezuela's rich mineral resources.

If Trump were concerned about drugs, he probably would not have pardoned former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, who had been sentenced to 45 years in prison by a New York court for cocaine trafficking and weapons possession.

Hardly anyone believes that Trump is actually concerned about drugs. If that were the case, he probably would not have pardoned former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández last week, who was sentenced to 45 years in prison by a New York City court in March 2024 for trafficking 400 tons of cocaine and weapons possession. He had also been found guilty of accepting millions in bribes from cartels and protecting them from prosecution.

In 2019, Hernández's brother Juan Antonio “Tony” Hernández had already been convicted of drug trafficking by a US court. He is also alleged to have accepted bribes from the Mexican Sinaloa cartel, which he in turn used to promote his brother's political career and his election as president.

Now, former President Hernández had written a letter directly to Trump, in which he portrayed himself as a victim of his predecessor Joe Biden and his vice president Kamala Harris. After the pardon, Trump confirmed that, in his view, it had been a conspiracy. “If someone sells drugs in a country, that doesn't mean you arrest the president and put him in prison for the rest of his life,” Trump said. The irony of this statement, when looking at Venezuela, seems to have been lost on him, of course.