The Middle East in flames

The Middle East in flames
Israel is trying to reorganize the Middle East in line with the US empire.

The situation in the Middle East is escalating once again. With an attack on Iran that violates international law, Israel has lit the fuse on a powder keg that now seems ready to explode. Since then, the countries have been at war. However, this conflict has been in the making for some time and ultimately serves the geopolitical and economic interests of the US, while Europe, Russia, and China, along with Iran, are on the losing side. Not to mention the ordinary people who just want to live in peace.

by Felix Feistel

[This article posted on 6/18/2025 is translated from the German on the Internet,

On the night of Friday, June 13, 2025, Israel launched a massive attack on Iran. Around 200 fighter jets attacked targets in the country, including nuclear facilities and military installations. This operation was flanked by drone attacks that were apparently launched from within the country itself. According to reports, drones had been smuggled into Iran over a long period of time and then launched during the night — an operation very reminiscent of the Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian strategic bomber fleet. The Israeli Air Force was initially able to operate unhindered because Israel had taken control of Iran's air defenses through a cyberattack, thereby disabling them. According to unconfirmed reports, a hacker calling himself Mr. Soul has managed to return control to Tehran.

Since then, the conflict has escalated. Israel and Iran are showering each other with drone and missile attacks. Western media outlets are exaggerating their coverage, particularly in favor of Israel, with headlines such as “Tehran is burning” and downplaying Iran's successes. Telegram is a more useful source of information, with videos from the scene circulating and a better assessment of the damage than sensationalist media reports.

RT is also reporting in a live ticker, and for details in video form and assessments from all kinds of experts, check out the livestream from Al Jazeera, which is also reporting on the war in English. The events are not significantly different from any other war: attacks are taking place, people are dying, buildings are being destroyed and are burning.

The details are buried under the fog of war, consisting of propaganda and censorship, but they are not that relevant. What is more interesting is the big picture, which is more difficult to paint than simply publishing sensational reports. However, a few things can be said for certain.

With its attack on Iran, Israel launched a war of aggression against a sovereign country and its population in violation of international law. The fact that such news is not heard in the German media speaks volumes, given that no opportunity is missed to make such claims in connection with the Russian war in Ukraine.

Germany and the West clearly stand behind Israel. According to reports, at least one German tanker aircraft was even spotted over the region, assisting the Israeli Air Force by refueling its aircraft. The German government, of course, has not commented on this. According to reports, numerous NATO countries are involved in the war on Israel's side.

US President Trump claimed that the US was not involved in the attacks on Iran, but this is implausible. Israel depends on US support, especially in the military sphere, and the US armed forces supported Israel at least in repelling the Iranian counterstrike. It is very likely that the US was also involved in planning and executing the attack on Israel, especially in view of the drone operation, which bears suspicious similarities to that carried out by Ukraine in Russia.

It is possible that Trump himself was not involved in the planning—the plans may have originated with his predecessor Biden. But that says a lot about the power of the president, who does not seem to have his military and intelligence apparatus under control. Assuming that Trump's claim reflects his ignorance, this makes it clear that a transatlantic “blob” of warmongers is acting independently of government authority and pushing through its own interests. This influential group extends at least ideologically into the MAGA movement and across the Atlantic to Europe, where the majority of governments stand behind Israel.

The Trump camp also appears to be divided by the war. At least Tucker Carlson has expressed criticism of the warmongering and has also attacked Trump himself, even though he was previously a major supporter of Trump. In Germany, even the opposition is divided. While many on the conservative to right-wing spectrum support Israel's attacks, the AfD is at least rhetorically striving for moderation. However, this party fundamentally supports Israel, including its actions in the Gaza Strip, and AfD members of parliament, including Alexander Gauland, have already stated in the past that solidarity with Israel means dying for this country if necessary.

Tel Aviv launched its war of aggression in violation of international law on the grounds that Iran was working to obtain nuclear weapons in order to wipe Israel off the map. And even if Iran's rhetoric toward Israel has been anything but friendly, this statement is an easily transparent protective claim. Even US intelligence agencies have consistently denied this claim in the recent past. Moreover, it was Trump who unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement with Iran during his first term in office and reimposed sanctions on the country.

In addition, Iran had participated in talks on a new nuclear agreement, agreements that are now history for the time being due to Israel's attack.

Israel may therefore have shot itself in the foot with this war and pushed Iran toward the atomic bomb, although the official rhetoric in Tehran still claims that Iran is not seeking a nuclear bomb—but who knows what to make of that.

This is therefore a rehashing of the propaganda about weapons of mass destruction that the enemy allegedly possesses. Such propaganda was used to justify the US's war of aggression against Iraq, which was contrary to international law.

However, even if Israel's accusations are confirmed, this is still no justification for an attack on Iran. This would be a violation of the United Nations Charter's prohibition of the use of force, which, according to Article 51, only allows a war of defense. Whether this can also be carried out preventively is highly controversial in legal theory. This concept is mainly supported by US lawyers. But even if one accepts the concept of a preventive or preemptive strike, it is subject to strict limitations. A preventive strike is only permitted if an attack by the enemy is imminent and the time available to eliminate the threat is short. However, neither of these conditions was met, as even Israeli and US propagandists claimed that Iran was still weeks or months away from having a nuclear bomb, and even then it would be unclear whether Tehran would simply attack Israel.

This seems rather unlikely given the US presence in the region, as Iran would be entering into a direct conflict with the US. Furthermore, attacks on nuclear facilities are also prohibited under international law. Israel is therefore in any case violating international law and committing a war of aggression contrary to international law.

Iran also criticizes that the latest resolution submitted by France, Great Britain, Germany, and the US to the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has given Israel justification for its attack.

However, Israel has probably been planning a war with Iran for some time. To this end, the government has methodically cleared the Gaza Strip and Hamas out of the way, weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon through direct attacks and the overthrow of the Syrian regime, separating both groups from Iran, and occupied parts of Syria.

A war against Iran was only a matter of time, as Israel has long sought to eliminate Iran.

It is likely that the primary goal in this war is not the destruction of Iran's nuclear capabilities — most of which are located underground, beyond the reach of missiles and bombs — but rather regime change in Iran. That is why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the Iranian people and called on them to rise up against their government. Netanyahu has now even declared that the death of revolutionary leader Khamenei could end the war. Iran has already experienced such attempts at violent regime change from outside in the past. The name of the Israeli operation, “Operation Lion's Roar,” also suggests that this could happen again. The lion was the symbol emblazoned on the Iranian flag when Iran was still ruled by Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The goal could therefore be a coup d'état with the enthronement of Pahlavi's son — who promptly spoke out from exile and called on the population to resist the government.

While the US and Europe support Israel and the US is moving parts of its navy and air force to the region to possibly attack Iran directly, the Yemeni Houthis are coming to Iran's aid. On Sunday, June 15, they attacked Israel with several ballistic missiles in close coordination with Iran. According to reports, Pakistan has also declared its solidarity with Iran and is threatening Israel with nuclear annihilation in the event of a nuclear attack on Iran. Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons and has a Muslim majority population.

In addition to its war of aggression against Iran, which violates international law, Israel launched another one: it attacked the Yemeni capital Sanaa with targeted air strikes. According to its own statements, the military targeted high-ranking Houthi leaders.
Far-reaching consequences

The entire war has the potential to escalate into a conflagration that would plunge the region into chaos, but also have consequences beyond. A regime change in Iran in favor of the West would bring the country into line with Western, especially US, interests. Unsurprisingly, the current attempts at regime change are in line with strategy papers from US think tanks, such as the Brookings Institute, and follow their script fairly closely. Moreover, such a regime change is in line with the US strategy developed after September 11, 2001, to reorganize the entire region and subject all countries that oppose US hegemony to regime change and civil war — from Syria, Libya, Egypt, Iraq, and Somalia to Iran. Iran is the last country on the long list of countries that the US intelligence apparatus wants to overthrow.

As Russia and China's closest and last remaining ally in the region and a member of the BRICS, Iran would be turned against these countries and join the long line of US puppet regimes in the region. This would weaken resistance to US hegemony. The next targets would be Russia and China, as has long been foreseeable. A collapse of Iran, followed by war and civil war, as is conceivable, would create another civil war country ruled by terrorist regimes that would divide the country among themselves.

The masses of refugees are also a weapon that could be used to plunge the entire region into chaos. Since Shiite refugees would be unlikely to move to Sunni-majority Syria or Sunni Iraq or Afghanistan, their only option would be to head north.

Armenia is probably out of the question as a destination, leaving Shiite Azerbaijan, Transcaucasia in Russia, and Turkmenistan. Although Turkey is also predominantly Sunni, it has served as a gateway for refugees on their way to Europe in the past.

Such refugee flows could destabilize the region. This would affect not only the Middle East, but also Central Asia, all the way to Russia, where there is a large Muslim population. In such a case, Europe could also expect new refugee flows, which would likely destabilize this region as well.

A prolonged war with Iran would also drive up oil prices massively. This would hit economically stricken Europe, which is in recession and facing a wave of bankruptcies, particularly Germany, even harder. Europe would slide even further into economic decline, making it even less of a threat to the US and more vulnerable to takeover by US corporations. But China would also be hit hard. Iranian oil imports account for around 10 to 15 percent of Chinese oil consumption. Iran is already considering blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which is the most important route for oil exports from the Persian Gulf.

All of this is likely the reason why Russia and China are not actively intervening in the conflict, but are instead trying to resolve it diplomatically. Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone over the weekend with the leaders of both countries, as well as with Donald Trump, and offered diplomatic support. China condemned the Israeli attacks, but also offered support for negotiating a peace agreement.

However, this is likely to be difficult, as the Israeli government, like the transatlantic blob, appears determined to start a war in the region and defeat Iran. Iran, for its part, is determined to resist Israel and sees itself as resisting hostile aggression. Simply labeling the leaders on both sides as insane is an infantile simplification of the situation. Both sides have their respective geopolitical interests and have no desire to submit to the other in any way.

The interests of both parties are diametrically opposed: The Iranian government has stated that it is ready to negotiate as soon as Israel stops its attacks on the country, but also emphasizes its determination to fight. The Israeli government, in turn, is calling on Iran to return to the negotiating table—from which the Iranian government was driven away in the first place by Israel's actions. Iran continues to strive to shut down the Israeli war machine, while Israel wants to destroy Iran's nuclear and missile systems.

All in all, the conflict threatens to escalate and plunge not only the Middle East but also Europe and Russia into chaos. Once again, the US would be the beneficiary, as refugees would not reach its shores and it would be able to expand its hegemony due to Europe's economic decline and China's weakening as a result of declining oil imports from Iran.

At the same time, the conflict has the potential to escalate into a nuclear conflict. But even if this does not happen, it could quickly turn into a conflagration. As always when governments fight for supremacy, it is ordinary people who suffer, losing their livelihoods or their lives and being plunged into fear and terror.

Therefore, further escalation of this conflict must be prevented by all means. Here in Europe, we can do nothing else but prevent our governments from intervening and urge them to pursue diplomacy.

However, no one is likely to be interested in diplomatic mediation by the EU states. The West has revealed its hypocrisy and double standards too clearly. Condemning Russia's actions in Ukraine while covering for Israel, despite the major differences between the two cases, shows the world what interests the West represents and that it does not care about ethics, morality, or international law. Whatever the outcome, Europe has presumably already suffered some losses. But diplomatic and moral failures should not be compounded by civilian casualties or direct military confrontation.

Germany should therefore not involve its military in this war and should urge both sides to end the hostilities as quickly as possible. Unfortunately, this cannot be expected from the German government, which is clearly pro-Israel.

Felix Feistel, born in 1992, studied law with a focus on international and European law. He worked as a journalist during his studies and has been working full-time as a freelance journalist and author since passing his state exam. He writes for manova.news, apolut.net, multipolar-magazin.de and on his own Telegram channel. Training as a trauma therapist according to Identity-Oriented Psychotrauma Theory and Therapy (IoPT) broadened his understanding of the background to world events.