German US ambassador warns of energy war under Trump

Internal document to the State Department: German US ambassador warns of energy war under Trump

by Christian Kliver

[This article posted on 1/21/2025 is translated from the German on the Internet, https://www.telepolis.de/features/Internes-Dokument-an-das-Aussenamt-Deutscher-US-Botschafter-warnt-vor-Energiekrieg-unter-Trump-10249859.html.]


German US ambassador Andreas Michaelis. Image: U.S. Department of State / Public Domain

LNG and oil are to be used to enforce “America First.” Joe Biden contributed to this. But there was also a prominent helper in Germany.

The sanctions against Russia's energy sector imposed by outgoing US President Joe Biden shortly before the end of his term in office play into the hands of re-elected President Donald Trump. They could even become an element of Trump's “America First” policy.

The reason: the sanctions will make it almost impossible for international oil importers to continue doing business with Russia. This will also have a noticeable impact on German and European energy supply.

Some of these theses do not come from Moscow. They come from Washington. More specifically, from a report by the German ambassador to the United States, Andreas Michaelis. The paper was received in Berlin shortly before the change of government in the US and is available exclusively to Telepolis.

According to the diplomat's assessment, the new US government will exert great pressure to ensure that the supply gaps created by Western sanctions are filled with US oil and gas exports. Michaelis predicts that these sales will be an important economic factor and political lever on the road to the US's goal of “energy dominance”.

International oil importers would hardly be able to do more business with Russia. The global energy market will therefore split along the new fault lines of the geopolitical realignment in the near future.

The explosive part of the dispatch: the German ambassador explicitly points out that the sanctions against the Russian energy industry were tightened by former President Joe Biden just a few days before the change of government in the US. In other words, when it comes to the powerful energy industry, “America First” applies to Biden as much as Trump.

Energy exports as a priority

And in Germany? Trump's designated Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, explicitly praised the expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacities in this country during his Senate hearing. Minister of Economic Affairs Habeck had pushed through the “LNG Acceleration Act” and – despite all the protests from the Green Party base – had three terminals for liquefied natural gas built in record time; in Wilhelmshaven (mid-December 2022), Brunsbüttel (early 2023) and Lubmin (both early 2023). Rubio commented:

I recall that in 2018, on two occasions, once at the United Nations and once at a NATO conference, then-President Trump pointed out that Germany's dependence on Russian energy was a real weakness. He was ridiculed for it. I remember that Germany's representatives at the United Nations smiled about it. He was actually one hundred percent right.

This dependence on Russian energy was a significant loss of deterrent. Vladimir Putin took into account in his many calculations when he invaded Ukraine that the Europeans would complain, maybe impose a few sanctions, write a few strongly-worded letters about it, but ultimately could do nothing effective because they depended so heavily on Russia and in some cases continue to depend.

I think France is the third largest payer for Russian energy worldwide, and I think a few other countries in Europe are close behind. So there is still a significant dependency in this regard, and this dependency on Russian energy is a huge lever that Vladimir Putin has over his neighbors in Europe.

However, there is also good news. For example, I have been following with great interest the German engineering skills with which they have managed – after lifting the licensing requirements and within nine months – to open a floating LNG terminal to receive exports from the US and other countries.

I think that Europe is now trying to break free from this dependency. But it remains a real weakness and an enormous lever for Putin to use with his neighbors and the wider world.

Marco Rubio

“Energy dominance is on all Republican priority lists,” Michaelis writes in his report to the German Foreign Office. The expectation is that the new US administration will quickly end the moratorium on LNG terminal approvals from the Biden administration and issue further export licenses.

In the words of the German ambassador to the United States, it is not only Joe Biden who has played into the hands of his successor Donald Trump. German Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) has also played into the hands of the “America First” policy with the LNG terminals.

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According to German diplomats, the US and Russia are now in much more direct competition with each other in the global and European energy markets than they were during Trump's first term in office (2017–2021). While Trump himself sees increased oil and gas supplies to Europe as a way of reducing the European trade surplus, energy exports are becoming an increasingly important part of the US economy.

Differences within the EU

Trump's re-election victory and the foreseeable course of US energy policy are likely to spark discussions in the European Union: on the one hand, some EU member states, including Germany, see an opportunity to improve transatlantic relations after difficult years by expanding energy cooperation with the US. The loss of Russian supplies could be compensated by US exports.

On the other hand, Trump's “America First” approach, his announced withdrawal from international climate agreements and the focus on fossil fuels in parts of the EU are likely to meet with criticism. Many EU countries are committed to a faster transition to renewable energies. However, this would pose a direct threat to US business plans.

There is also disagreement on how to deal with US sanctions against Russia. While some Eastern European countries mostly welcome the hard line, other EU countries fear a further escalation of tensions with Moscow.

With the sanctions against Russia that have now been passed, the expansion of US LNG and oil supplies to Europe will inevitably come to the fore in transatlantic relations, predicts the German ambassador to Washington. He says that the resulting points of contact must be used to develop a positive relationship with the new US administration.

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This seems necessary because Washington is currently massively tightening the course in energy policy across party and government lines. In the last days of the Biden administration, the General License (GL, in German: Generalerlaubnis) 8k was significantly amended. The provision of the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) regulates energy transactions with certain Russian companies. It was originally set to expire at the end of April 2025.

But then the U.S. Treasury suddenly revoked GL 8k and issued General License 8l on January 10. GL 8l allows energy transactions with Russian energy companies only until March 12, 2025. “This means that after March 12, there will be no more general licenses for energy transactions with Russia,” the German Embassy in Washington notes.

According to US statistics, the country's global crude oil exports are now around four million barrels per day, up from 700,000 barrels per day in January 2017. A glance at government statistics shows a similar increase in LNG sales.

In January 2017, the US market exported about 1.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of liquefied natural gas. After three years of war in Ukraine and numerous sanctions packages by the US and the EU, monthly exports now exceed 12 Bcf/d.

According to the German ambassador in Washington, the US LNG industry has become an integral part of the US economy and is important for meeting global energy demand; “replacing almost half of lost Russian gas into Europe,” as the US industry newsletter Daily Energy Insider puts it.


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According to the embassy in Washington, a lot will depend on the extent to which the sanctions are actually enforced. Friday's measures – the amendment of the OFAC regulation – are directed “directly against the Russian energy sector”.

This will make it difficult for oil importers to continue doing business with Russia in the foreseeable future. They also sent a clear message to countries that continue to import Russian oil. “These countries could be subject to US sanctions if they continue to purchase oil from Russia,” the German Embassy said.