Afghanistan: Growing talk of a political deal with the Taliban

Over the past week, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates; General David Petraeus, previously the commander of the Iraq occupation and now head of US Central Command; and General John Craddock, the current commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, have all advocated talks with the Taliban. Senior British military commanders have made similar calls.

The discussion is motivated by a number of factors. The insurgency itself has expanded rapidly over the past two years, driving up US and NATO casualties and giving rise to warnings that the war could last at least another decade. US commanders have repeatedly stated that they need thousands more troops but few are available, due to the ongoing occupation of Iraq. European NATO members have made only token responses to Washingtons appeals for additional combat forces.

The model being invoked is the Iraq Awakening, which involved the recruitment of Sunni Arab insurgents into US-paid and protected militias. From the end of 2006, as many as 100,000 Iraqis signed up to the militias. They assisted the US military to secure Sunni districts and hunt down more hard-line elements that refused to stop fighting. Buying off the Sunni insurgency was a significant factor in the sharp reduction in US casualties since the end of 2007 and the relative stabilisation of the occupation.

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