Scenarios for the FARC

If in the past a kind of strategic equilibrium existed between the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarios de Colombia) and the armed forces, events of the last months have tipped that balance in favor of the Colombian government. The guerrillas have lost all possibility of negotiating a humanitarian accord under favorable conditions. They cannot sustain political or military offensives, and have suffered a severe loss of credibility among the population. Today the FARC cannot count on any significant allies in the region or in the world.

Even so, the most likely scenario is that the FARC will continue its path, with decreasing capacity to carry out initiatives and the likely fragmentation of its command and geographic fronts. This had already been happening, as evidenced by the liberation of the 15 hostages.

The strategy outlined by the Southern Command (SouthCom) and the Pentagon, and expressed in Plan Colombia II, does not seek the definitive defeat or negotiations with the guerrillas. Eliminating the FARC from the scene would be bad for business and undermine the imperial strategy of destabilization and re-colonization of the Andean region. That project cannot be carried out without a direct or indirect war, without permanent destabilization as a vehicle for the territorial and political reconfiguration of the strategic region that includes the arc curving from Venezuela to Bolivia and Paraguay, and passing through Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru.

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