Puppetry in Afghanistan, Pakistan

Ostensibly the reasons are the activities of the Taliban and their allies who operate on both sides of the borders.

Hamid Karzai the President of Afghanistan has no army worth its name. At best, he has a contraption that a well schooled Boys Brigade equipped with bangers can put to flight. The fight against the Taliban is being carried out by foreign troops.

If the American-led soldiers were to leave, Karzai and his government will hold on to their boots pleading to be dragged along into exile.

Secondly, compared to Afghanistan, Pakistan has a war-tested army equipped with nuclear weapons, so how can anybody take Karzai's threat serious?

The most important point is that the Talibans Karzai threatens to chase across the border are well within Afghanistan including its capital Kabul where they operate with impunity. Karzai is like a dull pupil in an examination hall who rather than try to answer the questions, is staring at the ceiling as if the answers are written there.

He is a man who behaves like a spoilt child; always weeping; he cries about his masters bombing innocent citizens, he weeps about the destruction in the country while helping to perpetuate it and now barks across the border.

The humiliation of the Afghan regime stems from the impunity with which the Talibans operate in the country despite the presence of heavily armed foreign troops.

Apart from kidnappings and seemingly effortless attacks on the army by the Talibans, Karzai is not even safe to attend public functions in Kabul as he could be attacked. Perhaps the most humiliating episode in recent months is the attack last week in which the Talibans set over 1,000 inmates free from prison including four hundred of their own.

To any discerning mind, the Talibans have been intact since they swept into power in Kabul. When the Americans and their allies invaded the country, the Talibans suffered very little casualty as they simple disappeared from city after city with their super structure including army and government.

The Talibans are fighting a classical guerrilla warfare to which the invaders and their puppets have no answer.

Like the normal guerrilla warfare, the Talibans need not hold any territory, at least not for long, while the invaders need not just to hold territory, but also to try maintaining a semblance of normality and security which can only be done at great costs.

The Karzai regime has tried to employ some of the Taliban tactics such as banning the planting of puppies used for cocaine production. It has also moved against "foreign" culture by sanctioning the airing of Indian films. All these have failed.

Ban Ki-Moon the United Nation's Secretary General can see quite clearly that the war against the Talibans is a lost one. So he has come out publicly to advice the Karzai regime to negotiate with the Talibans.

But the puppet cannot take such a fundamental decision; it has to wait for orders from its masters. For the latter, after wasting so many lives especially American and British, and sinking in so much funds, military hardware and prestige, that will not be an easy decision to take. Some governments in Europe like the British may even fall as a result.

On the other hand, Pakistan is also barking at Afghanistan; threatening retaliation if attacked, despite its awareness that the Taliban and Al Qaeda operate freely on its territory. But what can it do to stop them? Its soldiers sent to the border area are killed or kidnapped even by its own citizens.

But the government needs to join Afghanistan in beating the drums of war because it lacks cohesion and its support is waning.

Historically, war or the threat of one has been an effective tool for mobilizing a populace behind a government. Since the clashes with India and bloodshed in Kashmir have died down, it would need another distraction.

The main problem of the Pakistan government is that it lacks credibility. This is typified by the struggle over the restoration of the Chief Justice Iftikar Mohammed Chaudhry and sixty other judges sacked by President Pervez Musharraf.

He sees their restoration as an affront on his office, a victory for the opposition and a possible loss of the presidency. This is because an independent judiciary may reverse the controversial Presidential vote that saw him clinging to power. It was the fear that the judiciary was going to rule against him that led to mass sack of the judges and detention of Lawyers.

On the other hand, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) which formed government does not want the restoration of an independent judiciary because it fears that the corruption charges against late Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Zardari might be revived.

So what better way to divert attention and rally the country than to threaten Afghanistan with severe retaliation?

Pakistan's hope of democratic development now lies with the Pakistan Muslim League led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, the militant judiciary and civil society forces. It is they who can check mate Musaraff, the PPP and Islamic fundamentalists.

On the other hand, skirmishes between Afghanistan and Pakistan can be a welcome excuse for American and Western troops since it would be a ready excuse why the war is going so badly.

If the two puppets shove each other, it could help them and their masters politically. But personally, I won't lose any sleep about the clowns in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

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