The Latino Voting Paradox

Louis E. V. Nevaer is the author of “The Rise of the Hispanic Market in the United States” and “HR and the New Hispanic Workforce.”

As voters across the nation prepare to cast their ballots on “Super Tuesday,” it is becoming clear that for Democrats, Latinos hold the key to regaining the White House – but only if fewer Latinos vote for the Democratic nominee in the general election.

The paradox arises from the geographic concentration of Hispanics across the country, and the convoluted nature of the Electoral College – where Al Gore won the popular vote, including more votes from Hispanics than Bush, but lost the election in 2000. Because the president is chosen by the Electoral College and not the popular vote, some votes do count more than others. One million Latinos in Texas could vote for Hillary Clinton, but Texas only has 34 votes in the Electoral College. If 100,000 Latinos in Ohio voted for Barack Obama – enough to tip that state in his favor – he would win all 20 of that state’s Electoral College votes. So it is possible for Latino voters in key states to tip their states towards one candidate.

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