McClatchy: Edwards, Romney Lead in Iowa

McClatchy: Edwards, Romney Lead in Iowa

McClatchy has a new Iowa poll out, taken Dec. 26-28. It shows that there was no spike among Iowa voters in concern for international affairs or terrorism in the wake of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan.

The poll shows that Mitt Romney has a significant lead, 27% to 23% for former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, whose momentum has slowed, and that Huckabee has lost ground even among evangelicals as the spotlight has been put on him.

This is a really small poll, of 400 Democrats and 400 Republicans, with a massive plus or minus margin of error, of 5%. So I don't think Edwards' one-point lead in this poll means much. But that the race is tight is obvious enough. And, it is likely that the finding of no increased concern about international affairs or terrorism is solid. If so, that does help Edwards. Also, the article argues that Edwards' numbers have shown an upward trend, and that he could benefit if the second-tier candidates don't reach 15%, since voters could then turn to someone else, and he is the second choice for a lot of, e.g., Richardson supporters.

posted by Juan Cole @ 12/30/2007 01:28:00 PM