Peace process in Afghanistan worrisome

The Taliban has been reorganized since 2005, focusing on political rather than economic targets in its attacks. In 2006, it used a range of approaches (ambushes, suicide bombers, and roadside bombings) to attack US, NATO and Afghani government forces in the south. This year, it has frequently threatened to launch its "largest ever attack in the spring". Kandahar, Helmand, Uruzgan and Farah Provinces have become the main battlefields. Despite the launch of "Operation Achilles" in early March by NATO and the government, the security situation in the country continues to deteriorate.

Why is this happening? There are four main reasons. Firstly, assistance and aid from the international community for Afghanistan's reconstruction is not yet in place. The country's lackluster economy and serious government corruption have deeply disappointed many of the country's impoverished people. This has driven some of them to support the Taliban. Conversely, Taliban forces in the east and south have the support and protection of local people and are bankrolled by various groups in the Middle East. Both their economic situation and their armory have improved significantly in recent years.

Secondly, this year, conflict between the Karzai government and the Northern Alliance has intensified. The partnership is unstable. The Karzai government has decided to provide arms to the Pashtun tribe in Kunar and southern regions which pledge loyalty to the government. In the meantime it has continued to disarm the Tajiks and the Uzbeks. With the influence of Russia increasing in Afghanistan, the Karzai government has begun to assign pro-Russia personnel to key government positions. The Northern Alliance is not entirely happy with this development. In February of this year, the Northern Alliance organized a demonstration in Kabul, during which approximately 2.5 million Afghans shouted anti-American slogans.

Thirdly, NATO troops have some major weaknesses. NATO troops in Afghanistan are mainly composed of troops from Britain, the Netherlands, Canada, Germany and France. In July last year, NATO troops took over military command in six provinces in southern Afghanistan from the US-led allied forces. Since then, they have played a leading role on Afghani battlefields. However, they have three major weaknesses. Firstly, their combat strength does not compare to US military forces. NATO forces were mainly engaged in peacekeeping operations in the past; therefore both their combat strength and weapons are inferior to those of the US forces. Secondly, NATO troops are heavily dependent on US military forces for many things including emergency support, air support and logistics support. Thirdly, NATO still needs to coordinate with US forces.

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