Would Arnold Really Challenge Barbara Boxer?

But how serious is Arnold about challenging Barbara Boxer, and how much of it is just hype from an adoring media that simply can’t bear to see him retire from politics? It’s unclear exactly how the rumor of him running got started, and whether he would want to be a mere legislator in a chamber of 100 egos. If Arnold does challenge Boxer in 2010, he will quickly find that the political dynamics are very different from his prior runs and he would face an uphill battle. Be that as it may, expect the media to continue drumming up his candidacy.

I first heard about Schwarzenegger running against Boxer last November on the day after the Election, when pollster David Binder gave his regular re-cap of the election results. It’s not uncommon at these events to have political junkies speculate about future elections, and there was nothing at the time to convince me that it was any more than just talk. But word about it has intensified over the past few months that now Boxer is raising money to prepare for such a prospect, and Democrats are relieved that she is taking the threat seriously.

The fact is – the media loves Arnold, and simply can’t stand the idea of covering politics without an action-hero celebrity around. Arnold’s name sells newspapers, and the Governor’s appearances at Editorial Board interviews elicit more requests for his autograph than tough questions about state government. Last year the Chronicle did an atrocious job of covering the Governor’s race, as reporter Carla Marinucci repeatedly did puff-pieces on Schwarzenegger and hit-pieces on Phil Angelides. Arnold’s a larger-than-life figure, and it makes the job of covering state politics a hell of a lot more fun.

In 2010, Arnold won’t have many options to pursue a political career besides running for the U.S. Senate. Even if the state legislature convinces voters to extend term limits in 2008, the measure in question won’t affect the Governor’s office – so Arnold will be termed out anyway. He can’t run for President either, because the Constitution bars the Austrian-born actor from seeking the White House. And unlike Jerry Brown, don’t expect him to run for some petty constitutional office – could you imagine Arnold as the state Insurance Commissioner?

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