Lebanon: Inch by inch

Forecasts of a breakthrough in Lebanon's political deadlock looked optimistic at best this week. A meeting between the 14 March leader Saad Al-Hariri and Shia speaker of parliament Nabih Berri, a key figure in the opposition, is anticipated. At the time of going to press, it is by no means clear that it will go ahead.

A Western diplomat told Al-Ahram Weekly that polarised Lebanese politicians should take the initiative instead of depending on diplomacy. "Yes, there is outside intervention, and Syria's position is a major obstacle, possibly a decisive obstacle. But the two sides could also be making progress by meeting each other," he said. "The bottom line is that they don't trust each other."

Berri seems unwilling to waste time in a meeting where a good chance of success is not assured. In an interview with Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, he said the governing coalition must cede the "blocking third" of cabinet seats demanded by the opposition, which is led by Hizbullah, and in return he would prevail on it to drop its call for early elections.

Berri warned: "there are many escalatory steps and I use the brakes quite a lot, as I did before and will do later. I do not know, however, for how long I can succeed given the mutual intransigence."

Opposition protesters have been camped out in downtown Beirut since the start of December, demanding a greater say in government following Israel's war on Lebanon last summer. Reuters reported this week that the opposition was considering upping the ante with a civil disobedience campaign. Loyalists in the public service would cease to go to work, pay bills and taxes.

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