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Arab Leaders: Crisis averse
Arab leaders cannot afford to be inert, believing that the region's woes or future threats do not concern them, writes Abdel-Moneim Said
This region is stumbling from one crisis to another. Over the past few years, we've seen major wars, a spate of terrorist attacks, as well as an Intifada that has cost thousands of lives. We've seen countries fall apart, and we know that within a few years they will break up yet again into new countries we know nothing about. The ever-present Palestinian problem, that one problem that we've elevated into a cornerstone of our communal grievances, remains unresolved. Fifty-eight years after losing their homeland, the Palestinian people have yet to secure an independent state. Some territories were freed by the Oslo Accords, but these are now lost. As if this wasn't enough, the victory of Hamas in Palestinian general elections has bankrupted the Palestinian Authority and put the nation on the verge of civil war.
It is a sad scene, indeed, even when you consider "lesser" problems. Look at Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and Sudan, and think of the horrors unfolding there. In the middle of all that turmoil, some Arab countries have managed to keep their stability and a modicum of respectability intact. But even they cannot afford to sit on the fence. Whether you're talking of a central issue or a peripheral one, Arabs who may not want to get involved end up doing just that. With every crisis spiralling into greater horrors, aloofness comes at a price. When Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and other Arab countries recently criticised Hizbullah's behaviour, saying that the Shia group put an entire country at risk, acting irresponsibly, their remarks backfired. Domestic pressures were such that those who asked Hizbullah to put the jinni back in the bottle opened their own Pandora's box replete with regional and international demons. Arab honour, once again, was at stake.
What I am saying is that major Arab countries, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, cannot afford to ignore the perils stalking them every step of the way. Every crisis ignored tends to snowball. Every disaster ignored comes back to haunt them. The balance of power in the region keeps shifting with every crisis, and no country can afford to block off the world and enjoy a moment of peace. Sooner or later one regional crisis or another will seep into the domestic situation of any given country.
More
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2006/812/op15.htm
It is a sad scene, indeed, even when you consider "lesser" problems. Look at Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and Sudan, and think of the horrors unfolding there. In the middle of all that turmoil, some Arab countries have managed to keep their stability and a modicum of respectability intact. But even they cannot afford to sit on the fence. Whether you're talking of a central issue or a peripheral one, Arabs who may not want to get involved end up doing just that. With every crisis spiralling into greater horrors, aloofness comes at a price. When Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and other Arab countries recently criticised Hizbullah's behaviour, saying that the Shia group put an entire country at risk, acting irresponsibly, their remarks backfired. Domestic pressures were such that those who asked Hizbullah to put the jinni back in the bottle opened their own Pandora's box replete with regional and international demons. Arab honour, once again, was at stake.
What I am saying is that major Arab countries, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, cannot afford to ignore the perils stalking them every step of the way. Every crisis ignored tends to snowball. Every disaster ignored comes back to haunt them. The balance of power in the region keeps shifting with every crisis, and no country can afford to block off the world and enjoy a moment of peace. Sooner or later one regional crisis or another will seep into the domestic situation of any given country.
More
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2006/812/op15.htm
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The Arab scene is one of anger and despair. After each crisis, we hear people calling for retaliation and others advising pragmatism. Peace is of course preferable to war, but at what price? When we talk about national security, we have to consider the bare facts. What we're faced with is more than the simple options of war and peace. What is bringing us to heel is more than the disputes between the trigger-happy and the prudent in our midst. What we need is deterrence, and that's a weighty matter.
Deterrence is a multi-faceted thing. You have to have the means and the resolve to use them, and you have to let your adversary know that you're ready to use force when necessary. Your adversary should know that its actions come with a price. That's what keeps the adversary at bay. That's why deterrence is a matter of life and death. Had Arab countries owned, even collectively, a credible means of deterrence, their luck would have turned.
Israel is our adversary. And that's a country known to possess a powerful arsenal of weaponry and is willing to use it. What encourages Israel to attack is our lack of deterrence. Our eagerness to negotiate for peace makes things worse. For it is important to let the adversary know that peace is not the only option. This is why Israel is so eager to disarm the resistance in Lebanon and Palestine ahead of any talks. Israel is acting like a wolf, and we're acting like a shepherd with no guard dogs.
One important caveat: You mustn't use inadequate force, for that would be courting trouble. So we must have a credible deterrent on a national or pan-Arab level. And we must be willing to use that deterrent if our national security comes under threat. That's what we all should begin to discuss.
More
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2006/812/op13.htm