San Francisco Peak Oil Hearing, July 28, 2006

Every day, a river of cars flows across the Bay Bridge into San Francisco, bringing workers, tourists, and visitors to the city. All run on petroleum fuels. Every day, a staccato procession of planes land at SFO, bringing tourists, conventioneers, and returning residents. All fly on petroleum fuels. Every day, a phalanx of trucks deliver food to grocery stores, restaurants, and corner markets. All run on petroleum fuels. Every day, roads are paved, potholes are filled, roofs are tarred, machinery is lubricated, tires are replaced. All are derived from petroleum. Every day, hundreds of thousands of purchases take place, every one enabled by petroleum.

What will happen when the petroleum behind all these activities costs $100 a barrel? $200 a barrel. Or more? San Francisco’s viability as a major West Coast city is based on cheap petroleum. But the century of cheap petroleum is quickly coming to an end, and an era of expensive, scarce oil is dawning. Just as US production of oil peaked in 1970, declining ever since despite the availability of the most advanced technology in the world, production of oil from an increasing number of other countries has peaked as well. Currently, 33 of the top 48 major oil producers in the world are in irreversible decline, among them the UK, Norway, Mexico and Indonesia. Within a few year—and indeed some claim it has already happened—global oil production will peak, and begin a protracted decline. The consequences are unthinkable. A world—and a city—built on cheap petroleum face the largest challenge of modern times.

Nothing exists that can seamlessly replace petroleum. For transport, ethanol and biodiesel have been touted, but both require tremendously higher levels of energy inputs for production compared to petroleum, and the competition with food production is already apparent with the rising price of corn in the Midwest. For other uses—lubrication, paving, plastics, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, paints, inks, solvents, detergents, rubber, and thousands more—no drop-in substitute is remotely ready. Alternate sources—such as the tar sands of Canada—produce in net only a half-barrel of oil for every barrel of energy consumed, and now require vast quantities of natural gas, water, and electricity just to produce 5% of the US consumption. As petroleum production reaches its peak, every aspect of our lives will be profoundly impacted.

What can be done? First, it’s important to understand the phenomenon. This is not an oil company conspiracy, nor is it the result of OPEC’s actions—this is the result of a century and a half of ever-rising exploitation of a finite energy source. Second, we need to examine how we use energy in San Francisco to determine ways to either reduce consumption or find non-fossil alternatives to supply it. We need to examine our food supply—completely dependent on petroleum for planting, harvesting, processing, and transporting—along with city operations and residential, commercial and transportation requirements to assess their vulnerability in an era of rising energy prices. We need to be creative, cutting edge, and pioneering in developing programs to mitigate the impact of high prices and increasingly limited supply of oil on San Francisco, and we need to work closely with our neighbors as well, as we all will be facing the same challenges.

On July 28th, at 2PM, the San Francisco Local Agency Formation Commission will be holding the first of several hearings on the issue of peak oil, at City Hall. The public is invited to attend as San Francisco—the first city in the country to pass a peak oil resolution—launches an effort to develop a plan of response. Indeed, citizen participation is critical, since the future of our city will be determined by our collective effort to face and respond to peak oil.