Discrediting Fouad Siniora to save him

The challenge for the Bush administration as the Lebanon war explodes into its second week is just that - to keep faith with Siniora and his "Cedar Revolution," even as it stands by its close ally, Israel. This isn't simply a question of appearances and public diplomacy. Unless Siniora's government can be strengthened, there is little hope for achieving the American and Israeli goal of bringing Hizbullah's guerrillas under lasting control.

"America's role is to energize a political outcome that helps to satisfy Israeli military objectives by other means," says Bush one administration official. The problem is that the American diplomatic timetable is so slow that by the time a cease-fire is reached - more than a week off, by US estimates - Lebanon may be too broken to be put back together anytime soon.

Administration officials rightly insist that returning to the status quo in Lebanon would be a mistake. After last year's triumph of forcing a withdrawal of Syrian troops, Siniora's government was struggling (and largely failing) to establish a viable nation. This nation-building effort was hamstrung by Hizbullah's insistence that it maintain what amounted to a state within a state.

The administration's strategy is to let Israel do the dirty work of breaking Hizbullah, and then move in a foreign "stabilization force" to bolster the Lebanese Army. Once Israel has pushed the guerrillas north, this international force would help the Lebanese Army deploy to the southern border with Israel and the eastern border with Syria. The plan is for a beefed-up successor to the existing United Nations force in Southern Lebanon, known as UNIFIL.

The administration's informal deadline for getting a UN mandate for this new international force is July 31, when UNIFIL's current mandate expires. The French now command that force, and the US hopes they can remain in that role, with new troops coming from such robust military powers as Italy, Turkey and Canada.

Siniora has privately warned the Bush administration that by bombing so many targets in Lebanon, Israel is undermining its own strategic goals. Lebanese are angry with Hizbullah for starting the war by kidnapping Israeli soldiers, and most want to see the militia under government control. But Siniora has angrily asked why the Israelis are hitting Lebanese airports, ports, roads, villages, facilities and other targets that primarily impact civilians. And he has denounced attacks on the Lebanese Army, which even the Israelis say is the key to long-run stability and security.

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