Lessons to Remember for November Ballot

1. Voters need to be convinced. While progressives don’t have a history of winning most ballot measures, some progressives have argued recently that if certain measures are placed on the ballot, they will win without a campaign simply because of the city’s liberal nature and the way the measures are worded. The past few years have proved that untrue, and that even choices that seem like no-brainers to any self-respecting San Franciscan can face an uphill battle. Government reform measures in particular fall into this category, as voters appear more willing to trust city government with Gavin Newsom at the helm than they did with Willie Brown as Mayor.

2. Ballot measures need a committed volunteer base. If you need a campaign to win a ballot measure, you need a big group of volunteers to work that campaign, especially if you’re up against the big money conservatives often possess. Obtaining that active base requires that before placing a measure on the ballot, broad and deep buy-in from a variety of communities needs to be obtained, and the measure needs to address a concern that they’re passionate about. The past several years have seen more ballot measures placed on the ballot by Supervisors rather than those obtained through signatures or that resulted from a strong grassroots push. While obtaining consensus on a measure from a variety of groups can be extremely difficult, it’s vital to ensure there’s a large base willing to pound the pavement for a campaign.

3. Endorsements are not as important as you think. The past several years have also proven that endorsements from prominent progressives, the Bay Guardian, and a smattering of progressive groups are not enough to win a campaign. In fact, in some races, all three seemed to make little difference in the outcome. While endorsements sometimes do play an important role, if there’s one indicator of victory, it’s far more likely the strength of its field campaign, not its number or quality of endorsements.

4. Keep it simple. Lately it seems the more complicated the measure, the less of a chance it has at passing. The goals of progressives are simple –social equity, environmental justice, governmental accountability, etc. – but it’s difficult to translate these goals into ballot measures. All of these goals should appeal to the liberal values of most San Franciscans, but unless it’s clear how a ‘yes’ vote will achieve one of those goals, city residents will vote no. Progressives need to pick issues and causes that can be easily explained and that have a clear benefit if enacted.

5. Factor expected level of turn-out into any decision. Progressives need heavy turnout on the East side to win contentious elections. If there’s absolutely nothing else on the ballot to bring them out, any campaign is going to be much, much more difficult. While sometimes it’s hard to gauge level of turnout early enough to make an educated decision when it comes time to file a ballot measure, it’s an important element to consider.

As November approaches, there’s sure to be a bunch of ideas kicked around as to what to put before voters. Several Supervisors already have proposals they’re hashing out, and a variety of community groups are considering placing something on the ballot.

In order for them to win, however, the most important thing to remember is that they’re going to have to convince voters they have the right proposal. To do so, they need a simple message with a clear goal; they need committed troops on the ground to deliver that message; they can’t rely on endorsements to carry them through; and they need to make a cold, hard analysis of who’ll be heading to the polls on Election Day.

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