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Indybay Feature
"Katrina's Real Name is Global Warming"
As the Bush administration promotes regulations that allow more pollution from power plants, we look at the increased impact of human-induced global warming in the form of extreme weather events such as Hurricane Katrina.
The Bush administration has drafted regulations that would ease pollution controls on older, dirtier power plants and could allow those that modernize to emit more pollution, rather than less. The language could undercut dozens of pending state and federal lawsuits aimed at forcing coal-fired plants to cut back emissions of harmful pollutants such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide. The draft rules were obtained by the Washington Post from the Natural Resources Defense Council.
Meanwhile, as the Gulf Coast struggles to cope the devastation left behind by Hurricane Katrina, a number of analysts around the country and the world are reflecting on the unusual severity of the storm and are making a connection with global warming.
In Germany, Environmental Minister Jurgen Tritten sparked a political firestorm this week when he penned an article in a German newspaper saying "Greenhouse gases have to be radically reduced worldwide. The US has, up until this point, had its eyes closed to this emergency." He linked Hurricane Katrina to global warming and America's refusal to reduce emission.
In 2001, the Bush administration announced it would not ratify the Kyoto Protocol that has been signed by 120 countries. The global treaty went into effect earlier this year without the support of the United States.
In an article in the Boston Globe Tuesday, journalist and author Ross Gelbspan writes, "The hurricane that struck Louisiana yesterday was nicknamed Katrina by the National Weather Service. Its real name is global warming." Gelbspan goes on to write, QUOTE "Unfortunately, very few people in America know the real name of Hurricane Katrina because the coal and oil industries have spent millions of dollars to keep the public in doubt about the issue."
* Ross Gelbspan, special projects editor of The Boston Globe. He conceived, directed and edited a series of articles that won a Pulitzer Prize in 1984. He is author of "The Heat is On: The High Stakes Battle Over Earth's Threatened Climate" and "Boiling Point: How Politicians, Big Oil and Coal, Journalists, and Activists are Fueling the Climate Crisis -- and What We Can Do to Avert Disaster."
http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=05/09/01/147233
Meanwhile, as the Gulf Coast struggles to cope the devastation left behind by Hurricane Katrina, a number of analysts around the country and the world are reflecting on the unusual severity of the storm and are making a connection with global warming.
In Germany, Environmental Minister Jurgen Tritten sparked a political firestorm this week when he penned an article in a German newspaper saying "Greenhouse gases have to be radically reduced worldwide. The US has, up until this point, had its eyes closed to this emergency." He linked Hurricane Katrina to global warming and America's refusal to reduce emission.
In 2001, the Bush administration announced it would not ratify the Kyoto Protocol that has been signed by 120 countries. The global treaty went into effect earlier this year without the support of the United States.
In an article in the Boston Globe Tuesday, journalist and author Ross Gelbspan writes, "The hurricane that struck Louisiana yesterday was nicknamed Katrina by the National Weather Service. Its real name is global warming." Gelbspan goes on to write, QUOTE "Unfortunately, very few people in America know the real name of Hurricane Katrina because the coal and oil industries have spent millions of dollars to keep the public in doubt about the issue."
* Ross Gelbspan, special projects editor of The Boston Globe. He conceived, directed and edited a series of articles that won a Pulitzer Prize in 1984. He is author of "The Heat is On: The High Stakes Battle Over Earth's Threatened Climate" and "Boiling Point: How Politicians, Big Oil and Coal, Journalists, and Activists are Fueling the Climate Crisis -- and What We Can Do to Avert Disaster."
http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=05/09/01/147233
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It looks to me like there has been no significant increase in the number of hurricans to hit the US in the past 150 years.
For more information:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml
That graph doesnt show any multidecade trend but the last row is a little misleading since its for a shorter time period so the number per year is actually near the highest on the list even though the number listed is lower than the other full decade categories.
Another thing that shoudl be kept in mind is that globalclimate change isnt going to cause everything to be worse but will change where things happen etc... Some areas may get more rain and some may get less. Some areas may get on average colder. This hurricane was a result of global warming in the way to hit the coast but that doesnt mean that without global warming another hurricane may not have hit at a different time etc... (its a result in the sense that humans have changed weather patterns so anything that happens can be blamed on that since the way it happens now is different form how it would have happened without human intervention..although of course there is no way of knowing what would have happened without the change )
31.Aug.2005 12:46
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ignored by Bush = criminal negligence link
This work is in the public domain
Previous evidence that global warming would result in more severe storm surges was ignored by the GW Bush administration. The result of ignoring global warming predictions is lost lives and damage in the billions. The petroleum corporations need to be held accountable for their role in bringing about global warming, and the Bush administration's criminal negligence in ignoring the warnings.
There was advanced warning about increased storm surges from future hurricanes given to coastal regions. If these warnings were heeded by the federal government there could have been life saving disaster preparations implemented ahead of time. Most of the financial support to implement these programs would need to come from the federal level. Since the Bush administration ignored these warnings about global warming, that amounts to criminal negligence..
"EXPERTS TO WARN GLOBAL WARMING LIKELY TO CONTINUE SPURRING MORE OUTBREAKS OF INTENSE HURRICANE ACTIVITY
Problem Tied to Rising Sea Temperatures From Trapped Greenhouse Gases; Trend Portends More Storm Damage Costs for FL, AL, LA, TX, NC and SC.
WASHINGTON, D.C.//October 21, 2004///With four hurricanes and tropical storms hitting the United States in a recent five-week period, 2004 already is being called "The Year of the Hurricane." But this year's unusually intense period of destructive weather activity could be a harbinger of what is to come as the effects of global warming become even more pronounced in future years, according to leading experts who participated today in a Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School briefing.
The recent onslaught of four major tropical weather disturbances - Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne - that did so much damage in the United States and nearby Haiti have spurred new questions about the relationship between hurricanes and global warming. While experts can't say that climate change will result in more hurricanes in the future, there is growing evidence and concern that the tropical storms that do happen will be more intense than in the past. Fueling concerns about the link between global warming and hurricanes is a new study on hurricane intensity published on September 28, 2004 in "The Journal of Climate." The study used extensive computer modeling to analyze 1,300 future hurricanes and projected major increase in the intensity and rainfall of hurricanes in coming decades.
"Global warming may well be causing bigger and more powerful hurricanes," said James J. McCarthy, a biological oceanographer at Harvard University and lead author of the climate change impacts portion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (2001). "Warmer seas fuel the large storms forming over the Atlantic and Pacific, and greater evaporation generates heavy downpours. With warmer, saltier tropical seas, the IPCC has projected larger storms, heavier rainfalls and higher peak winds."
Paul R. Epstein, M.D., associate director of the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School, said: "Scientists cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricanes will occur in the future. However, even if the number of storms remained constant, more powerful hurricanes with stronger winds, higher storm surges, and heavier downpours would have an even greater potential for damage, including increased risks to human life and public health, more floods and mudslides, increased coastal erosion and damage to coastal buildings and infrastructure. This is the pattern that we already may be seeing related to the overall increase in extremes.""
above info from;
http://www.med.harvard.edu/chge/hurricanespress.html
second opinion for global waming skeptics;
"(b) Increasing Storms and Floods
Dr. Thomas Karl, director of the National Climatic Data Center (NOAA), says that global warming has produced an increase in precipitation during the 20th century, mostly in the form of heavy rainstorms, little in moderate, beneficial rainstorms. Thomas Karl also reports that recent decades have produced a 20% increase in blizzards and heavy rainstorms in the U.S. "Hundred-year events are become more frequent now," notes Karl. In a report issued in November, 1999 the Britain's Meteorological Office warned that flooding in Asia and Southeast Asia would increase more than ninefold over the coming decades. Floods are already increasing worldwide. The year 1998 was the worst on record, with 96 floods in 55 countries.
Scientists are saying that global warming is causing early snowmelts. During the month of December 1996 and the first week of January 1997 unusually warm weather caused an early snowmelt that resulted in record flooding in parts of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California, Nevada and Montana. These floods forced about 500,000 people to leave their homes. In California alone state officials estimated flood damage to homes and businesses at $1.6 billion. [31]
k) Coastal Flooding
Global warming is melting ice to the tune of 50 billion tons of water a year from the Greenland ice sheet. A NASA high-tech aerial survey shows that more than 11 cubic miles of ice is disappearing from the ice sheet annually. "We see a significant trend (in loss of ice mass)," said William B. Krabill, NASA scientist and lead author of a study on Greenland ice melting. "When we can go back after five years and see 10 meters of glacier gone, there is something happening." This is increasing the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world, if this meltdown trend continues. [53]
The rising sea level has led to salt water encroachment producing the "Ghost forests" of South Florida and Louisiana. Since about 1970, the invading salt water has killed hundreds of acres of southern baldcypress trees in Louisiana coastal parishes and sabal palm in Florida. [90] "
above from;
http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g_dgr.htm
The responsibility of the damage and lost lives from the recent hurricane belongs to the petroleum corporations and their sponsored puppet government led by George Herbert Walker Bush.
There is no amount of money to bring back the dead, however the cost of repairs and clean -up belongs to the petroleum corporations for their role in bringing about global warming, not the taxpayers..
WMR 01.Sep.2005 08:22
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
repost link
August 31,2005 - What happened to the SELA (Southeast Louisiana) Urban Flood Control Program? According to Gulf Coast Investigators, who warned about financial malfeasance involving the redirection of money first appropriated by Congress in 1995 to the pockets of supporters of jailed former Governor of Louisiana Edwin Edwards, the catastrophe that has struck New Orleans could have been avoided. The SELA funds were to be used by the US Army Corps of Engineers to replace old pumps and levees. The old levees and pumps, first built in the 1930's with New Deal money, failed as a result of Katrina. New levees and pumps were to be installed to beef up the New Orleans' flood control system to withstand a Category 5 hurricane. The flood control money that was not ripped off by Edwards was diverted by George W. Bush to fund his Iraq adventure. That, in addition to the presence of Louisiana's National Guard and equipment in Iraq, left Louisiana unprepared for the cataclysmic Category 4-5 hurricane.
WMR2 01.Sep.2005 11:23
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
repost link
September 1, 2005 -- Flood protection money to Halliburton = Blood money for the Big Easy. With reports that the Bush administration diverted $250 million in SELA (Southeast Louisiana) Urban Flood Control Program funds from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to Iraq, it is time for Congress to sit down with former Corps of Engineers Senior Executive Service Principal Assistant for Contracting, Bunnatine Greenhouse. Ms. Greenhouse, who hails from Louisiana and likely knows something about those diverted flood abatement funds to Halliburton, was fired in retaliation for her June 27 congressional testimony in which she stated that Corps contracts for Kellogg, Brown & Root/Halliburton Iraq infrastructure projects were improperly awarded -- through a no-bid process -- as a result of political influence by Bush and Cheney political appointees in the Army's hierarchy. On August 27, Ms. Greenhouse was removed from her career civil service position just as Hurricane Katrina bore down on New Orleans. Congress should order the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to obtain copies of all Corps of Engineer documents on contracts for Halliburton and the diverting of New Orleans flood control funds to Iraq reconstruction. The possibility that Dick Cheney's firm took money that was to go to New Orleans flood control projects should be a priority for Congress -- which should cancel its Labor Day recess and get back to work before September 12.
How much money is enough for you Scrooge Cheney? (Apologies to Ebenezer). Care to spare a Halliburton dime for New Orleans?
It is no wonder that Dick Cheney is no where to be found during America's worst natural disaster. When the people of New Orleans discover that Cheney's firm profited at the expense of their loved ones' lives, they will want to tear Cheney from limb to limb. And who can blame them?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ignored by Bush = criminal negligence link
This work is in the public domain
Previous evidence that global warming would result in more severe storm surges was ignored by the GW Bush administration. The result of ignoring global warming predictions is lost lives and damage in the billions. The petroleum corporations need to be held accountable for their role in bringing about global warming, and the Bush administration's criminal negligence in ignoring the warnings.
There was advanced warning about increased storm surges from future hurricanes given to coastal regions. If these warnings were heeded by the federal government there could have been life saving disaster preparations implemented ahead of time. Most of the financial support to implement these programs would need to come from the federal level. Since the Bush administration ignored these warnings about global warming, that amounts to criminal negligence..
"EXPERTS TO WARN GLOBAL WARMING LIKELY TO CONTINUE SPURRING MORE OUTBREAKS OF INTENSE HURRICANE ACTIVITY
Problem Tied to Rising Sea Temperatures From Trapped Greenhouse Gases; Trend Portends More Storm Damage Costs for FL, AL, LA, TX, NC and SC.
WASHINGTON, D.C.//October 21, 2004///With four hurricanes and tropical storms hitting the United States in a recent five-week period, 2004 already is being called "The Year of the Hurricane." But this year's unusually intense period of destructive weather activity could be a harbinger of what is to come as the effects of global warming become even more pronounced in future years, according to leading experts who participated today in a Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School briefing.
The recent onslaught of four major tropical weather disturbances - Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne - that did so much damage in the United States and nearby Haiti have spurred new questions about the relationship between hurricanes and global warming. While experts can't say that climate change will result in more hurricanes in the future, there is growing evidence and concern that the tropical storms that do happen will be more intense than in the past. Fueling concerns about the link between global warming and hurricanes is a new study on hurricane intensity published on September 28, 2004 in "The Journal of Climate." The study used extensive computer modeling to analyze 1,300 future hurricanes and projected major increase in the intensity and rainfall of hurricanes in coming decades.
"Global warming may well be causing bigger and more powerful hurricanes," said James J. McCarthy, a biological oceanographer at Harvard University and lead author of the climate change impacts portion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (2001). "Warmer seas fuel the large storms forming over the Atlantic and Pacific, and greater evaporation generates heavy downpours. With warmer, saltier tropical seas, the IPCC has projected larger storms, heavier rainfalls and higher peak winds."
Paul R. Epstein, M.D., associate director of the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School, said: "Scientists cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricanes will occur in the future. However, even if the number of storms remained constant, more powerful hurricanes with stronger winds, higher storm surges, and heavier downpours would have an even greater potential for damage, including increased risks to human life and public health, more floods and mudslides, increased coastal erosion and damage to coastal buildings and infrastructure. This is the pattern that we already may be seeing related to the overall increase in extremes.""
above info from;
http://www.med.harvard.edu/chge/hurricanespress.html
second opinion for global waming skeptics;
"(b) Increasing Storms and Floods
Dr. Thomas Karl, director of the National Climatic Data Center (NOAA), says that global warming has produced an increase in precipitation during the 20th century, mostly in the form of heavy rainstorms, little in moderate, beneficial rainstorms. Thomas Karl also reports that recent decades have produced a 20% increase in blizzards and heavy rainstorms in the U.S. "Hundred-year events are become more frequent now," notes Karl. In a report issued in November, 1999 the Britain's Meteorological Office warned that flooding in Asia and Southeast Asia would increase more than ninefold over the coming decades. Floods are already increasing worldwide. The year 1998 was the worst on record, with 96 floods in 55 countries.
Scientists are saying that global warming is causing early snowmelts. During the month of December 1996 and the first week of January 1997 unusually warm weather caused an early snowmelt that resulted in record flooding in parts of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California, Nevada and Montana. These floods forced about 500,000 people to leave their homes. In California alone state officials estimated flood damage to homes and businesses at $1.6 billion. [31]
k) Coastal Flooding
Global warming is melting ice to the tune of 50 billion tons of water a year from the Greenland ice sheet. A NASA high-tech aerial survey shows that more than 11 cubic miles of ice is disappearing from the ice sheet annually. "We see a significant trend (in loss of ice mass)," said William B. Krabill, NASA scientist and lead author of a study on Greenland ice melting. "When we can go back after five years and see 10 meters of glacier gone, there is something happening." This is increasing the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world, if this meltdown trend continues. [53]
The rising sea level has led to salt water encroachment producing the "Ghost forests" of South Florida and Louisiana. Since about 1970, the invading salt water has killed hundreds of acres of southern baldcypress trees in Louisiana coastal parishes and sabal palm in Florida. [90] "
above from;
http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g_dgr.htm
The responsibility of the damage and lost lives from the recent hurricane belongs to the petroleum corporations and their sponsored puppet government led by George Herbert Walker Bush.
There is no amount of money to bring back the dead, however the cost of repairs and clean -up belongs to the petroleum corporations for their role in bringing about global warming, not the taxpayers..
WMR 01.Sep.2005 08:22
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
repost link
August 31,2005 - What happened to the SELA (Southeast Louisiana) Urban Flood Control Program? According to Gulf Coast Investigators, who warned about financial malfeasance involving the redirection of money first appropriated by Congress in 1995 to the pockets of supporters of jailed former Governor of Louisiana Edwin Edwards, the catastrophe that has struck New Orleans could have been avoided. The SELA funds were to be used by the US Army Corps of Engineers to replace old pumps and levees. The old levees and pumps, first built in the 1930's with New Deal money, failed as a result of Katrina. New levees and pumps were to be installed to beef up the New Orleans' flood control system to withstand a Category 5 hurricane. The flood control money that was not ripped off by Edwards was diverted by George W. Bush to fund his Iraq adventure. That, in addition to the presence of Louisiana's National Guard and equipment in Iraq, left Louisiana unprepared for the cataclysmic Category 4-5 hurricane.
WMR2 01.Sep.2005 11:23
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
repost link
September 1, 2005 -- Flood protection money to Halliburton = Blood money for the Big Easy. With reports that the Bush administration diverted $250 million in SELA (Southeast Louisiana) Urban Flood Control Program funds from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to Iraq, it is time for Congress to sit down with former Corps of Engineers Senior Executive Service Principal Assistant for Contracting, Bunnatine Greenhouse. Ms. Greenhouse, who hails from Louisiana and likely knows something about those diverted flood abatement funds to Halliburton, was fired in retaliation for her June 27 congressional testimony in which she stated that Corps contracts for Kellogg, Brown & Root/Halliburton Iraq infrastructure projects were improperly awarded -- through a no-bid process -- as a result of political influence by Bush and Cheney political appointees in the Army's hierarchy. On August 27, Ms. Greenhouse was removed from her career civil service position just as Hurricane Katrina bore down on New Orleans. Congress should order the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to obtain copies of all Corps of Engineer documents on contracts for Halliburton and the diverting of New Orleans flood control funds to Iraq reconstruction. The possibility that Dick Cheney's firm took money that was to go to New Orleans flood control projects should be a priority for Congress -- which should cancel its Labor Day recess and get back to work before September 12.
How much money is enough for you Scrooge Cheney? (Apologies to Ebenezer). Care to spare a Halliburton dime for New Orleans?
It is no wonder that Dick Cheney is no where to be found during America's worst natural disaster. When the people of New Orleans discover that Cheney's firm profited at the expense of their loved ones' lives, they will want to tear Cheney from limb to limb. And who can blame them?
Another point people are missing is that hurricanes are more devastating now because:
1) More people than ever are living along the coast in harm's way
2) Coastal wetlands, which provide some degree of natural protection, have been systematically destroyed for development
1) More people than ever are living along the coast in harm's way
2) Coastal wetlands, which provide some degree of natural protection, have been systematically destroyed for development
Generally, hurricane season is considered to run from June 1 though November 30, with the peak activity taking place between mid-August and October. The reason for this seasonality is that in order for a hurricane to form, a certain amount of heat is necessary. The sea surface temperatures (SST) are only high enough to form tropical storms during these months.
It has long been known that storms tend to be stronger during times in which SSTs tend to be higher. These temperatures tend to fluctuate naturally over time in a process called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AOM), which causes the SST to oscillate with an amplitude of between 0.1 and 0.2ºC.
A common explanation that has been given throughout the past decade for the increase in strong hurricanes is that we are in an “upturn” of this cycle. However, the SST of the Atlantic has increased 0.5ºC since our last upturn in the early 1990s, two to five times higher than the temperature increase historically associated with AOM fluctuations.
Studies on the statistical record of the occurrences of the strongest category of storm, maximum hurricane wind speeds, and minimum central pressures suggest a systematic increase in the strength and intensity of tropical storms. These assertions were made by Thomas R. Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya of the government-funded Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).
Knutson and Tuleya based their assertions on a study they have conducted using a highly sophisticated computer model. Their computer simulation uses future climate projections from nine different global climate models and four different versions of a new higher-resolution version of the GFDL hurricane model (the model used to predict and forecast hurricanes).
Their report was published in Journal of Climate in September 2004. According to their study, an 80-year buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide at a rate of 1 percent per year (compounded annually) would result in a one-half category increase in hurricane intensity on the commonly used Saffir-Simpson scale (which ranks hurricanes from a low-intensity category one to a very severe category five). Their study also indicated that there would be an 18 percent increase in precipitation near the center of storms.
The Saffir-Simpson scale is based on wind speed: a category one storm has wind speeds of 74-95 miles per hour (mph), a category two storm 96-110 mph, category three 111-130 mph, category four 131-155 mph, and a category five storm has wind speeds above 156 mph. So a one-half category increase means that wind speeds will increase by just over 10 mph. This implies that every storm will have the potential to do much more damage than it would if global temperatures were as they are today.
The link between the strength of tropical storms and global warming was first presented as a theory in 1987 by Dr. Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. On July 31 of this year, Dr. Emanuel published a paper unveiling a new method of measuring hurricane strength. He believes that this new measurement is much more useful than the old standards of measuring wind speed, core pressure, etc.
While conducting a survey of tropical storms of the last 75 years, instead of measuring the peak strength of a hurricane, the number of them, or the amount of rain they dropped, Dr. Emanuel measured the amount of energy they dissipated. The measurement is called the “Power Dissipation Index,” or “PDI,” which is obtained by measuring both the time that the hurricane lasts and its strength as time passes.
“The best way to put it is that storms are lasting longer at higher intensity than they were 30 years ago,” said Dr. Emanuel. The new measurements give us new insight into the trends that the storms are following. Dr. Emanuel made note that hurricane and cyclone durations have increased by approximately 60 percent since 1949; and average peak wind speeds have increased by about 50 percent. Average Atlantic storm PDI is about 230 percent what it was in 1949 and about 160 percent what it was at the peak of the early 1950s, which was the highest measured prior to the 1990s.
Hurricane patterns also show that as temperatures rise, Atlantic hurricanes go farther east and have a higher likelihood of making landfall on the US East Coast. So not only are hurricanes becoming stronger, but they are making landfall more often. This trend will continue to get worse as global temperatures rise.
In addition to this problematic trend, the proportion of the US population living on the coast is increasing. This means that more people are moving into the path of the hurricanes, and the cost of damages caused by hurricanes will increase even faster than their strength.
It is widely accepted by the scientific community that global warming is fueling larger, stronger hurricanes. The link between global warming and hurricane frequency, however, is not so well established.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made the connection between global warming and the amount of precipitation and wind speed of average hurricanes backed by scientific data and experimentation as early as 2001 in its report Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. The report did, however, explicitly mention that there was no evidence that global warming would increase the frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms.
Scientific organizations such as PEW and Realclimate, along with countless others, have undertaken painstaking studies on the frequency of hurricanes over the last century. The data shows that there has not been an increase in the frequency of hurricanes over the last century, though the data is much more accurate after the appearance of weather satellites in the 1970s. The past decade has not been particularly bad in this respect. These scientists cite the fact that in the 2004 season, although four hurricanes hit Florida, this is not all that out of the ordinary. For example, in both 1926 and 1964, three hurricanes hit Florida.
But people’s fears about an increase in hurricanes are not unfounded. According to a National Weather Service report, “Hurricane seasons during 1995-2004 have averaged 13.6 tropical storms, 7.8 hurricanes, 3.8 major hurricanes, and with an average ACE index of 159 percent of the median.... In contrast, during the preceding 1970-1994 period, hurricane seasons averaged 9 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1.5 major hurricanes, with an average ACE index of only 75 percent of the median.”
By the very nature of weather dynamics, it is impossible to assign a specific cause to any particular hurricane. Weather patterns are very complex, and the specific reason for any one event cannot be determined. However, the recent studies indicate that the probability of having a strong storm such as Katrina make landfall in the US is higher today than it would be if global temperatures were not rising. This is because even without knowledge as to the specific cause for a specific event, patterns can be recognized and suspected causes tested.
More
http://wsws.org/articles/2005/sep2005/warm-s13.shtml
It has long been known that storms tend to be stronger during times in which SSTs tend to be higher. These temperatures tend to fluctuate naturally over time in a process called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AOM), which causes the SST to oscillate with an amplitude of between 0.1 and 0.2ºC.
A common explanation that has been given throughout the past decade for the increase in strong hurricanes is that we are in an “upturn” of this cycle. However, the SST of the Atlantic has increased 0.5ºC since our last upturn in the early 1990s, two to five times higher than the temperature increase historically associated with AOM fluctuations.
Studies on the statistical record of the occurrences of the strongest category of storm, maximum hurricane wind speeds, and minimum central pressures suggest a systematic increase in the strength and intensity of tropical storms. These assertions were made by Thomas R. Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya of the government-funded Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).
Knutson and Tuleya based their assertions on a study they have conducted using a highly sophisticated computer model. Their computer simulation uses future climate projections from nine different global climate models and four different versions of a new higher-resolution version of the GFDL hurricane model (the model used to predict and forecast hurricanes).
Their report was published in Journal of Climate in September 2004. According to their study, an 80-year buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide at a rate of 1 percent per year (compounded annually) would result in a one-half category increase in hurricane intensity on the commonly used Saffir-Simpson scale (which ranks hurricanes from a low-intensity category one to a very severe category five). Their study also indicated that there would be an 18 percent increase in precipitation near the center of storms.
The Saffir-Simpson scale is based on wind speed: a category one storm has wind speeds of 74-95 miles per hour (mph), a category two storm 96-110 mph, category three 111-130 mph, category four 131-155 mph, and a category five storm has wind speeds above 156 mph. So a one-half category increase means that wind speeds will increase by just over 10 mph. This implies that every storm will have the potential to do much more damage than it would if global temperatures were as they are today.
The link between the strength of tropical storms and global warming was first presented as a theory in 1987 by Dr. Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. On July 31 of this year, Dr. Emanuel published a paper unveiling a new method of measuring hurricane strength. He believes that this new measurement is much more useful than the old standards of measuring wind speed, core pressure, etc.
While conducting a survey of tropical storms of the last 75 years, instead of measuring the peak strength of a hurricane, the number of them, or the amount of rain they dropped, Dr. Emanuel measured the amount of energy they dissipated. The measurement is called the “Power Dissipation Index,” or “PDI,” which is obtained by measuring both the time that the hurricane lasts and its strength as time passes.
“The best way to put it is that storms are lasting longer at higher intensity than they were 30 years ago,” said Dr. Emanuel. The new measurements give us new insight into the trends that the storms are following. Dr. Emanuel made note that hurricane and cyclone durations have increased by approximately 60 percent since 1949; and average peak wind speeds have increased by about 50 percent. Average Atlantic storm PDI is about 230 percent what it was in 1949 and about 160 percent what it was at the peak of the early 1950s, which was the highest measured prior to the 1990s.
Hurricane patterns also show that as temperatures rise, Atlantic hurricanes go farther east and have a higher likelihood of making landfall on the US East Coast. So not only are hurricanes becoming stronger, but they are making landfall more often. This trend will continue to get worse as global temperatures rise.
In addition to this problematic trend, the proportion of the US population living on the coast is increasing. This means that more people are moving into the path of the hurricanes, and the cost of damages caused by hurricanes will increase even faster than their strength.
It is widely accepted by the scientific community that global warming is fueling larger, stronger hurricanes. The link between global warming and hurricane frequency, however, is not so well established.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made the connection between global warming and the amount of precipitation and wind speed of average hurricanes backed by scientific data and experimentation as early as 2001 in its report Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. The report did, however, explicitly mention that there was no evidence that global warming would increase the frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms.
Scientific organizations such as PEW and Realclimate, along with countless others, have undertaken painstaking studies on the frequency of hurricanes over the last century. The data shows that there has not been an increase in the frequency of hurricanes over the last century, though the data is much more accurate after the appearance of weather satellites in the 1970s. The past decade has not been particularly bad in this respect. These scientists cite the fact that in the 2004 season, although four hurricanes hit Florida, this is not all that out of the ordinary. For example, in both 1926 and 1964, three hurricanes hit Florida.
But people’s fears about an increase in hurricanes are not unfounded. According to a National Weather Service report, “Hurricane seasons during 1995-2004 have averaged 13.6 tropical storms, 7.8 hurricanes, 3.8 major hurricanes, and with an average ACE index of 159 percent of the median.... In contrast, during the preceding 1970-1994 period, hurricane seasons averaged 9 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1.5 major hurricanes, with an average ACE index of only 75 percent of the median.”
By the very nature of weather dynamics, it is impossible to assign a specific cause to any particular hurricane. Weather patterns are very complex, and the specific reason for any one event cannot be determined. However, the recent studies indicate that the probability of having a strong storm such as Katrina make landfall in the US is higher today than it would be if global temperatures were not rising. This is because even without knowledge as to the specific cause for a specific event, patterns can be recognized and suspected causes tested.
More
http://wsws.org/articles/2005/sep2005/warm-s13.shtml
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