there won't be a depression

http://forum.truthout.org/blog/story/2005/6/23/171724/029

I'm disappointed no one else voted "No" on the depression question.

We've had a series of recessions. Putting aside the disastrous real estate bubble which may get worse with this eminent domain ruling, there are no major indicators to show we're headed toward a fiscal or monetary depression ( although it's important I won't cover energy in this post ). Yes the wealth is concentrated in the top 3-5 percent of the population, The ratio of wages to per capita spending is much greater than it was 20-40 years ago but wages haven't improved--for most folks they've sunk. I find the rate of sustainable, competitive, mutually equitable investments to be alarmingly low yield and low quantity. Outside of government bonds and Treasury bills it's pretty much a wasteland at this moment, what with proxy shareholding and Enron accounting.

Here's the good news. Local progressives and myself ( we're in Oregon ) think a monopoly system of systems has been holding the people down since the early 1970's in terms of purchasing power and what they can create with wealth. If you read the above paragraph you get some sense of the problem but it runs deeper. You have to ask tough questions like, " why do kids go hungry? " and scrutinize the results, even after verifying the results. I've been independently and collaboratively studying hunger and I've come to the conclusion there are monopolistic cliques in local and state government who are gatekeepers interfering with citizens or demanders full potential. Many of these cliqued plutocracies, some aristocracies too, are shills -- they're proxying for some larger entity who wants to grab up all the resources, fix the pricing so when we go to the store to buy food we find what I call deterministic non-deterministics in pricing. The shills are truly cutting out the middle man: the broker. This is wrong because historically brokers in an open market with open pricing have netted the best deals for their commissions and more importantly their clients who are the customers and stores ( you have different sets of brokers each for demand and supply ). Today's propaganda in wholesale and retail is " cut out the middle man ". So you're getting a great deal at Wal-Mart but it's a lie that's what the corporations say to absolve themselves of any responsibility where and when accurate pricing is concerned.

Here's the kicker that will rock the socks off of political scientists and economists not to mention nearly every middle class family: these pricing realizations plus a lot of other important things I need not say in this forum will shutter jobs and minimum wage. Not work -- everybody works to some extent. I'm talking about the phasing out and elimination of the corporate jobs model. Sooner then later. I don't know when exactly but I know it's going to happen. It goes back to bonded workers, sharecropping and slavery. It really does. Why be beholden to a minority's interest when you can rule your destiny with the help of the economy?

First, legal and political steps must be taken to secure the agreements needed to affect such profound change. This will be tough. Given items like Sarbanes-Oxley[1] I think the push for maximum transparency in business dealings is already here and is going to get better.

Once the legal and political elements have solidified ( and don't think the current political crises in D.C. are being overlooked by Wall Street ) it will ease investors and brokers fears. Whatever comes next, it won't be a repeat of the rich getting richer in the 90's and 80's and the mostly stagnate '00-'05. I predict after we solve the hunger and healthcare problems it's going to be fun. Then a real energy crisis will come along and it won't be fun. Then once that's fixed and most of the world catches up it may very well be a new renaissance for the human race.

[1] http://www.aicpa.org/info/sarbanes_oxley_summary.htm