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Election Divides a Nation
The elections due Jan. 30 appear to have brought more chaos and division amongst Iraqis than unity and hope. And they have brought greater security fears.
BAGHDAD, Jan 24 (IPS) - The elections due Jan. 30 appear to have brought more chaos and division amongst Iraqis than unity and hope. And they have brought greater security fears.
U.S.-appointed prime minister Iyad Allawi acknowledged last week that full security will be impossible. This despite the rather draconian measures his interim government will have in place.
The government has announced plans to close borders Jan. 29-31. It will cut mobile and satellite phone services, ban travel between Iraq's 18 provinces, lengthen curfew hours and restrict use of vehicles.
Security at polling stations will be heavy. The government plans to set up three security rings around each of the 9,000 polling stations.
But the government is preparing for a bloody day despite such measures. The health ministry has announced it will provide more hospital beds, medical supplies and staff for the day. The U.S. military will run extra patrols to respond faster to attacks.
With at least eight candidates killed, and many others receiving daily death threats, campaigning has mostly consisted of parties employing staff to post leaflets and set up posters. Many of the posters are torn down the same day, while others are burned.
The polling process itself is confusing many people. With 7,785 mostly unnamed candidates on the lists of 83 coalitions of political parties, voters have little idea who they will be voting for. Each list contains between 83 and 275 candidates, running on platforms championing all sorts of causes.
The 'candidates' lists have names such as 'The Security and Stability List', 'The Security and Justice List' and the 'Iraq List'. Many include fancy graphics, but few carry candidate photographs.
Allawi is a member of a list running under the slogan 'For a strong, secure, prosperous, democratic and unified Iraq'. Most candidate lists do not mention the occupation of Iraq.
One election poster reads, ”Let the polls be our answer to the car bombings and insecurity”. Another has a smiling face of a man with the promise that this list will focus on restoring electricity.
The lists are mostly sectarian. Kurdish lists are focused on winning Kirkuk for Kurds, and obtaining a top government post. Shias have their own lists, some seeking federalism, others an Iranian-style regime.
The Association of Muslim Scholars, a Sunni group, has called for a boycott in protest against the destruction of Fallujah by the U.S.. military. Local people estimate that 90 percent of Sunnis will not vote. Members representing Sunni Muslims would in that event have to be appointed..
Most voters are expected to be Shia Muslims. Their revered Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has issued a fatwa instructing his followers to vote.
”I will vote because Sistani has told us this will help the country,” said Abdel Hassan, a shoemaker in the predominantly Shia district Karrada in Baghdad. ”And I am ready to do anything to help my country.”
Other Iraqis appear to be firmly against the elections.
”How can we vote when we don't know any of the candidates,” said a Shia man who gave his name as Ghassan. ”And how can any of them help a country that is occupied by invaders?”
Just the fear of violence is certain to keep many voters at home. ”We don't know when the next bullet will come so we are staying in our homes most of the time,” said Abdulla Hamid, a 35-year-old father of five who sells vegetables in Baghdad. ”I would vote if there was security, but this election is confusing to me and seems to be causing so many problems already.”
Some believe voting will help security. ”I will be voting for Allawi because I think he can help Iraq,” says Suthir Hamiz, whose husband works in the supply department at a U.S. military camp. ”I think he can bring security.”
Hamoudi Aziz, who drives his car as a taxi while looking for a better job, says the elections themselves have brought a worsening of the security situation. ”I'm not even safe in my own home under this martial law,” he said when asked if he will vote. ”So how am I expected to vote for this crazy parliament?”
http://www.dahrjamailiraq.com/hard_news/archives/hard_news/000182.php#more
U.S.-appointed prime minister Iyad Allawi acknowledged last week that full security will be impossible. This despite the rather draconian measures his interim government will have in place.
The government has announced plans to close borders Jan. 29-31. It will cut mobile and satellite phone services, ban travel between Iraq's 18 provinces, lengthen curfew hours and restrict use of vehicles.
Security at polling stations will be heavy. The government plans to set up three security rings around each of the 9,000 polling stations.
But the government is preparing for a bloody day despite such measures. The health ministry has announced it will provide more hospital beds, medical supplies and staff for the day. The U.S. military will run extra patrols to respond faster to attacks.
With at least eight candidates killed, and many others receiving daily death threats, campaigning has mostly consisted of parties employing staff to post leaflets and set up posters. Many of the posters are torn down the same day, while others are burned.
The polling process itself is confusing many people. With 7,785 mostly unnamed candidates on the lists of 83 coalitions of political parties, voters have little idea who they will be voting for. Each list contains between 83 and 275 candidates, running on platforms championing all sorts of causes.
The 'candidates' lists have names such as 'The Security and Stability List', 'The Security and Justice List' and the 'Iraq List'. Many include fancy graphics, but few carry candidate photographs.
Allawi is a member of a list running under the slogan 'For a strong, secure, prosperous, democratic and unified Iraq'. Most candidate lists do not mention the occupation of Iraq.
One election poster reads, ”Let the polls be our answer to the car bombings and insecurity”. Another has a smiling face of a man with the promise that this list will focus on restoring electricity.
The lists are mostly sectarian. Kurdish lists are focused on winning Kirkuk for Kurds, and obtaining a top government post. Shias have their own lists, some seeking federalism, others an Iranian-style regime.
The Association of Muslim Scholars, a Sunni group, has called for a boycott in protest against the destruction of Fallujah by the U.S.. military. Local people estimate that 90 percent of Sunnis will not vote. Members representing Sunni Muslims would in that event have to be appointed..
Most voters are expected to be Shia Muslims. Their revered Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has issued a fatwa instructing his followers to vote.
”I will vote because Sistani has told us this will help the country,” said Abdel Hassan, a shoemaker in the predominantly Shia district Karrada in Baghdad. ”And I am ready to do anything to help my country.”
Other Iraqis appear to be firmly against the elections.
”How can we vote when we don't know any of the candidates,” said a Shia man who gave his name as Ghassan. ”And how can any of them help a country that is occupied by invaders?”
Just the fear of violence is certain to keep many voters at home. ”We don't know when the next bullet will come so we are staying in our homes most of the time,” said Abdulla Hamid, a 35-year-old father of five who sells vegetables in Baghdad. ”I would vote if there was security, but this election is confusing to me and seems to be causing so many problems already.”
Some believe voting will help security. ”I will be voting for Allawi because I think he can help Iraq,” says Suthir Hamiz, whose husband works in the supply department at a U.S. military camp. ”I think he can bring security.”
Hamoudi Aziz, who drives his car as a taxi while looking for a better job, says the elections themselves have brought a worsening of the security situation. ”I'm not even safe in my own home under this martial law,” he said when asked if he will vote. ”So how am I expected to vote for this crazy parliament?”
http://www.dahrjamailiraq.com/hard_news/archives/hard_news/000182.php#more
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Simon Jeffery details some of the concerns surrounding the forthcoming poll and what could happen afterwards
Monday January 24, 2005
What are Iraqis voting for?
Supporters claim it as Iraq's first free and fair election since the 1950s; its detractors argue such a thing is impossible while the US military is such a looming presence. What is unarguable is that Sunday's election will be Iraq's most complicated, a long way removed from the yes/no ballots under Saddam Hussein that gave close to 100% of the popular support to the former dictator.
The election is the first of two set out by a UN resolution to provide for democratic self-government. Up for grabs are 275 seats on a national assembly with two roles: first it has to appoint a transitional government; second it has to write a permanent constitution. Its latter task is the most important: deciding on matters such as the political structures of a future Iraq, the role of Islam and how much control the Kurds and other minority groups will have over their own affairs. The plan is then for a second vote under the new constitution (to be held before December 31 2005) that will wind up the assembly and directly elect a new government. The constitution will be put to a referendum in October.
Who is standing?
For the purposes of this vote, Iraq is treated as a single constituency. Political parties and coalitions certified by the Iraqi electoral commission as "political entities" put forward lists of between 12 and 275 candidates and are awarded assembly places proportionate to their share of the vote. If one "political entity" gets 20% of the vote it gets 55 seats.
There are over 100 registered parties and coalitions (fielding 7,500 candidates) but the favourites are the Shia United Iraqi List led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq and endorsed by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, prime minister Ayad Allawi's secular Iraqi List and the Kurdistan Alliance List led by Jalal Talabani and Massoud Barzani, two of the most prominent Iraqi Kurds. Mr Sistani's endorsement is expected to put the United Iraqi List (which also includes the party of Ahmed Chalabi, the Pentagon's former darling) ahead of its rivals. Not all of Iraq's Shia population will wish to vote for a religious party, but the use of religious symbols and the respected cleric's image is a powerful call for those that do.
Who will form the next government?
The assembly will be asked to select a president and two vice-presidents who will then choose a prime minister and nominate a cabinet. Despite the ambitious Mr Chalabi allying his party to Mr Sistani, Mr Allawi is expected to be a strong consensus candidate to remain as prime minister. There may also be pressure for a broader government than one drawn from the Shia religious parties likely to dominate the assembly.
Will the vote be free and fair?
Leaving aside questions over whether "free and fair" elections can be held when the former occupying powers maintain a significant military presence, there are serious concerns over the vote. Violence in Baghdad and the Sunni areas to its north and west is likely to suppress the vote in those areas and Sunni leaders, fearing their minority community's under-representation in the national assembly, have asked for the vote to be postponed until the insurgency is under control. Such moves are opposed by Mr Sistani, spiritual leader of the 60% Shia population, who have never been able to use their greater numbers to achieve political power, and George Bush and Tony Blair, who do not want to see a timetable that would eventually allow them to withdraw at the mercy of militants.
The violence also means that, unlike recent elections in Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories, there will be no independent international observers present to report evidence of intimidation and fraud.
What is the Sunni response?
The Iraqi Islamic party, the largest Sunni party, named candidates but pulled out of the elections because it feared persistent killing would deter Iraqis in the Sunni north and west from casting their votes. This leaves secular parties such as President Ghazi al-Yawah's Iraqis, Adnan Pachachi's Independent Democratic Movement and Mr Allawi's coalition as the principal outlets for those who do not wish to vote for a Kurdish or Shia religious party. A 90% turnout is expected in the relatively safe Shia areas in the south of Iraq, but, in some Sunni cities, the US estimates it could be as low as 30%. Mr Yawah, a Sunni tribal leader, this month asked a how constitution could be drafted unless "all ethnicities, sects, religions and political ideologies are included".
What is Zarqawi's role?
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the US's most wanted man in Iraq, claims much of the violence and the killing for his al-Qaida in Iraq group. Almost daily suicide bombings have struck at Iraqi security forces and are intended to stifle the democratic process. Threats mean most of the 7,500 candidates shy away from rallies and only leading politicians dare appear on television. In Mosul, Iraq's third city, the entire election staff resigned amid intimidation. Seven officials nationwide have been killed, some dragged from their car in Baghdad in broad daylight and shot.
A tape recording attributed to Zarqawi, a Sunni militant who considers Shias heretics, said the election was a US plot to engineer a Shia government that will attempt to spread its "evil faith" further. "And after fighting the Ba'athists and the Sunnis, they will spread their insidious beliefs, and Baghdad and all the Sunni areas will become Shia," he said. "Even now, the signs of infidelity and polytheism are on the rise."
The speaker said democracy was an "evil principle" based on what he said were un-Islamic beliefs such as freedom of religion, rule of the people and freedom of expression. He said those who took part it in were "infidels". A large terrorist attack coordinated by Zarqawi is feared on the day of the vote.
Will the election end the insurgency?
Since it began in summer 2003, nothing has succeeded in ending the insurgency. There was some hope that by moving direct US rule further into the past, an elected assembly would have enough legitimacy to calm the violence but there are now fears that it could entrench divisions. Even without a vote-suppressing insurgency, Sunnis make up just 20% of the population and, if Iraqis vote on communal lines, it is inevitable that the group would see its previously dominant position reversed. If Sunnis do not vote in great numbers - as is likely - it could tip Iraq towards civil war if what is viewed as an illegitimate Shia dominated assembly attempts to exercise majority rule.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1397553,00.html
Monday January 24, 2005
What are Iraqis voting for?
Supporters claim it as Iraq's first free and fair election since the 1950s; its detractors argue such a thing is impossible while the US military is such a looming presence. What is unarguable is that Sunday's election will be Iraq's most complicated, a long way removed from the yes/no ballots under Saddam Hussein that gave close to 100% of the popular support to the former dictator.
The election is the first of two set out by a UN resolution to provide for democratic self-government. Up for grabs are 275 seats on a national assembly with two roles: first it has to appoint a transitional government; second it has to write a permanent constitution. Its latter task is the most important: deciding on matters such as the political structures of a future Iraq, the role of Islam and how much control the Kurds and other minority groups will have over their own affairs. The plan is then for a second vote under the new constitution (to be held before December 31 2005) that will wind up the assembly and directly elect a new government. The constitution will be put to a referendum in October.
Who is standing?
For the purposes of this vote, Iraq is treated as a single constituency. Political parties and coalitions certified by the Iraqi electoral commission as "political entities" put forward lists of between 12 and 275 candidates and are awarded assembly places proportionate to their share of the vote. If one "political entity" gets 20% of the vote it gets 55 seats.
There are over 100 registered parties and coalitions (fielding 7,500 candidates) but the favourites are the Shia United Iraqi List led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq and endorsed by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, prime minister Ayad Allawi's secular Iraqi List and the Kurdistan Alliance List led by Jalal Talabani and Massoud Barzani, two of the most prominent Iraqi Kurds. Mr Sistani's endorsement is expected to put the United Iraqi List (which also includes the party of Ahmed Chalabi, the Pentagon's former darling) ahead of its rivals. Not all of Iraq's Shia population will wish to vote for a religious party, but the use of religious symbols and the respected cleric's image is a powerful call for those that do.
Who will form the next government?
The assembly will be asked to select a president and two vice-presidents who will then choose a prime minister and nominate a cabinet. Despite the ambitious Mr Chalabi allying his party to Mr Sistani, Mr Allawi is expected to be a strong consensus candidate to remain as prime minister. There may also be pressure for a broader government than one drawn from the Shia religious parties likely to dominate the assembly.
Will the vote be free and fair?
Leaving aside questions over whether "free and fair" elections can be held when the former occupying powers maintain a significant military presence, there are serious concerns over the vote. Violence in Baghdad and the Sunni areas to its north and west is likely to suppress the vote in those areas and Sunni leaders, fearing their minority community's under-representation in the national assembly, have asked for the vote to be postponed until the insurgency is under control. Such moves are opposed by Mr Sistani, spiritual leader of the 60% Shia population, who have never been able to use their greater numbers to achieve political power, and George Bush and Tony Blair, who do not want to see a timetable that would eventually allow them to withdraw at the mercy of militants.
The violence also means that, unlike recent elections in Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories, there will be no independent international observers present to report evidence of intimidation and fraud.
What is the Sunni response?
The Iraqi Islamic party, the largest Sunni party, named candidates but pulled out of the elections because it feared persistent killing would deter Iraqis in the Sunni north and west from casting their votes. This leaves secular parties such as President Ghazi al-Yawah's Iraqis, Adnan Pachachi's Independent Democratic Movement and Mr Allawi's coalition as the principal outlets for those who do not wish to vote for a Kurdish or Shia religious party. A 90% turnout is expected in the relatively safe Shia areas in the south of Iraq, but, in some Sunni cities, the US estimates it could be as low as 30%. Mr Yawah, a Sunni tribal leader, this month asked a how constitution could be drafted unless "all ethnicities, sects, religions and political ideologies are included".
What is Zarqawi's role?
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the US's most wanted man in Iraq, claims much of the violence and the killing for his al-Qaida in Iraq group. Almost daily suicide bombings have struck at Iraqi security forces and are intended to stifle the democratic process. Threats mean most of the 7,500 candidates shy away from rallies and only leading politicians dare appear on television. In Mosul, Iraq's third city, the entire election staff resigned amid intimidation. Seven officials nationwide have been killed, some dragged from their car in Baghdad in broad daylight and shot.
A tape recording attributed to Zarqawi, a Sunni militant who considers Shias heretics, said the election was a US plot to engineer a Shia government that will attempt to spread its "evil faith" further. "And after fighting the Ba'athists and the Sunnis, they will spread their insidious beliefs, and Baghdad and all the Sunni areas will become Shia," he said. "Even now, the signs of infidelity and polytheism are on the rise."
The speaker said democracy was an "evil principle" based on what he said were un-Islamic beliefs such as freedom of religion, rule of the people and freedom of expression. He said those who took part it in were "infidels". A large terrorist attack coordinated by Zarqawi is feared on the day of the vote.
Will the election end the insurgency?
Since it began in summer 2003, nothing has succeeded in ending the insurgency. There was some hope that by moving direct US rule further into the past, an elected assembly would have enough legitimacy to calm the violence but there are now fears that it could entrench divisions. Even without a vote-suppressing insurgency, Sunnis make up just 20% of the population and, if Iraqis vote on communal lines, it is inevitable that the group would see its previously dominant position reversed. If Sunnis do not vote in great numbers - as is likely - it could tip Iraq towards civil war if what is viewed as an illegitimate Shia dominated assembly attempts to exercise majority rule.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1397553,00.html
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