CAL marriage war?

In California, on or around 6 December 2004,
Assembly Speaker Fabian Nuñez and outqueer Assemblyman Mark Leno will re-introduce Leno's
"Marriage License Non-Discrimination Act",
granting same-sex couples access to civil marriage.

And then what? Here's one probable scenario:

This bill probably will be passed by Democratic majorities
in both houses of the California state legislature;
probably during summer or fall 2005.


Then Governator Arnold Schwarzenegger will either sign it,
or veto it,
or let it become law without his signature.
The third option would indicate his neutrality on this issue.


Next, homophobes will circulate petitions for a "referendum" on this bill -- that is, for voters either to approve it (by voting Yes)
or to abolish it (by voting No).
[In California, the referendum process is less common than
the initiative process, but not unknown. Referendum was used in November 2004, to destroy a health care bill. ]


If the homophobes care about the Republican Party,
they'll try to time their petition carefully,
so that same-sex marriage
will be on the state ballot in November 2006,
helping Republican candidates.

How will the people vote?
If Californians had voted on this issue in November 2004,
same-sex marriage would have failed.
Will they be more liberal in 2006?

Who knows?
.................................