Sadr's best prospect is mainstream politics

Sadr enjoys a massive following among the poorer elements of Iraq's Shiite community - a recent nationwide poll ranked him second in popularity out of a list of 17 top people in Iraq. He stands to gain considerable leverage if he chooses to operate within Iraq's political order, analysts say. Lately, he has stood down some of his militiamen and signaled an intention to establish a political party which would submit candidates to the nationwide elections scheduled for January.

Sadr's overtures and the Iraqi government's warm response suggest that both sides are primed for a compromise that could see murder charges against the Shiite cleric dropped and his movement's emergence into the political mainstream, albeit as a vocal opposition.

"His Shiite followers are all poor, young and nationalists, unlike many other political groups which have the patronage of Iran and other countries. That is a powerful combination," said Abdel-Jaber al-Qubaisi, editor of the Baghdad-based Nida al-Watan newspaper.

The cleric's alternatives to joining mainstream politics appear bleak. The radical preacher's Mehdi Army militia has been classified as "illegal" and Sadr faces trial, accused of ordering the killing of Ayatollah Abdel-Majid Khoei, a moderate Shiite cleric, in April last year.

Earlier in the week, Ghazi al-Yawar, Iraq's interim president, offered Sadr an olive branch, which, if accepted, could turn the 30-year-old junior cleric into a powerful political presence in post-occupation Iraq.

Welcoming Sadr's decision to start a political party, Yawar said "I think this is a very smart move of him."

"I kept saying consistently that if I were in his shoes I would try to go to the political arena instead of raising arms. He has supporters, he has constituents, he should go through the political process and I commend this smart move on his side," Yawar said.

Last Sunday, a Sadr aide revealed that plans were under way to establish a political party which would participate in elections in January. Sadr has signaled that he will not seek political office, but will be represented by candidates he nominates.

"Those surrounding him are pushing him to become a member of a future government. But Sadr thinks he's bigger than a government post," Qubaisi said.

A recent poll conducted by the Iraqi Center for Research and Strategic Studies gave Sadr an average 33.6 approval rating, placing him second only to Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the pre-eminent Shiite cleric in Iraq. The poll found that Sadr was "strongly supported" by 31.8 percent of those asked and "somewhat supported" by 35.4 percent.

By comparison, Ghazi Yawar, the new president, was ranked 10th out of 17 with an average approval rating of 16.5. Ayad Allawi, the new prime minister, was 15th with an approval rating of 11.5 percent.

The announcement came two days after Sadr reversed his initial rejection of the interim government, saying he would recognize it as long as it gave a clear timetable for the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Iraq.

The new government recently announced plans to disband nine militias and integrate some of the fighters into the fledgling Iraqi security forces. Militiamen that do not participate in the scheme are banned from political office for three years. Sadr's Mehdi Army militia was excluded from the deal, suggesting that the cleric is barred from a political role.

But Iraqi officials have indicated that Sadr can join the political process if he dismantles the Mehdi Army and clears his name of Khoei's murder.

Even US President George W. Bush has said the US will not bar a political role for Sadr after June 30, saying it is up to Baghdad to decide what to do with him.

Battling an ever-worsening insurgency with minimal resources, the interim government is in no position to force a confrontation with Sadr. But the young cleric also can ill afford to continue using violence to challenge the authorities in Baghdad. On Wednesday, Sadr gave his strongest signal yet that he intends to cooperate with the Iraqi authorities by ordering home members of the Mehdi Army from Najaf and Kufa, unless they live in the two Shiite shrine cities.

If Sadr strikes a compromise with the Iraqi government, it would help curtail one element of instability in the troubled country. He began an insurrection in early April after the coalition closed his newspaper, arrested a key aide and vowed to "capture or kill" the cleric.

Intense street battles were fought in Sadr's strongholds in the southern cities of Najaf, Karbala and Kufa as well as the slum quarter of Sadr City in Baghdad.

After June 30, the coalition forces - renamed as the Multi-National Force-Iraq - are supposed to coordinate national security measures with the government, which could see the military pressure on Sadr eased.

Putting a cap on Shiite unrest would allow the Iraqi government to concentrate on quelling the worsening Sunni-driven insurgency.

So far this month, there has been more than one car bomb attack a day, claiming over 100 lives, as well as bombings of infrastructure and assassinations of government officials.

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