Democratic Hopes Dwindling

People believe that the economy will bomb, just like it did in 1991 when the United States invaded Kuwait and drove out Saddam Hussein's army. However, this is not 1992 and this war and this election will be different.

Unlike the Gulf War, when the only objective was to move the Iraqi army out of Kuwait, this war is part of a larger war against terror. In 1992 Kuwait was attacked; in 2001 New York was attacked, and that makes a world of difference.

With the recent polling and upcoming conventions it looks as if the 2004 Presidential race is a lock for incumbent President George W. Bush.

Bush 43 is not doomed to Bush 41’s fate for many reasons. For starters, there is more time for the economy to get better soon enough for voters to feel it.

Furthermore, the congressional wing of the party is likely to be more supportive of Bush 43. The Pat Buchanan challenge of 1992 will not likely materialize in 2004 and neither will a Ross Perot surface to drain votes in the general election.

Probably the biggest factor is the fact that the Democrats have no candidate with the political skills of a Bill Clinton.

Recent polls taken in California and New York have President Bush leading in the early going, leading in California against any Democrat (45 – 40). And in New York, Bush is beating every opposing candidate including Hillary Clinton.

Other scattered polls around the nation indicate that the Republicans can pick up as many as 4 Senate seats next year, increasing the GOP margin to 55-45.

For example in South Dakota, early polling indicates Senate Minority leader Tom Daschle trailing John Thune, who lost to Tim Johnson by about 500 votes. A recent Field Poll also shows that California Senator Barbara Boxer is vulnerable in the upcoming election.

And to top all of the hype that Bush is receiving in New York, the Republican convention will be headed straight for the Big Apple in early September just prior to the third anniversary of 9/11. This will give the GOP strategists an opportunity to remind voters of the leadership role that President Bush has played in the wake of attacks.