Turkey strikes blow against Bush’s war

Turkey strikes blow against Bush’s war

Displaying more initiative and political courage than its Arab neighbors, Turkey has taken the lead in rallying a group of moderate Muslim countries in opposition to American war plans in Iraq. This is the meaning of the recent tour of the region by Prime Minister Abdullah Gul. He began with Syria, a country with which Turkey’s relations have greatly improved after years of antagonism. This is also the meaning of the meeting Turkey’s foreign minister, Yasar Yakis, hosted this week for the foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria and Jordan.
For greater effect, the Turks would have preferred the meeting to take place at the level of heads of state, but Arab fears, hesitancies and rivalries prevented this happening. Just as France is hoping to rally the European Union in opposition to American war plans, so Turkey wants to make Washington understand that the Middle East region is against war.
But there should be no misunderstanding: there are limits to how far Turkey can go. It cannot afford to offend the United States or break its ties with Israel, however much it seeks friendship with the Arabs and feels sympathy for the Palestinian cause. Turkey’s crisis-ridden economy is heavily dependent on aid from the International Monetary Fund. As a loyal NATO member, it has intimate and long-standing strategic relations with the United States. Since the mid-1990s, it has also developed close military and economic ties with Israel, earning it the valuable political support of the US Jewish Lobby. Its opposition to American (and Israeli) war plans and its opening to the Arab world are, therefore, all the more remarkable ­ and praiseworthy.
How far has Turkey gone in voicing its opposition?
It has refused to sanction the opening of a “northern front” against Iraq from its territory. Some six weeks ago, a leading US hawk, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, visited Ankara to request the stationing of 80,000 US troops in Turkey. The Turks said no. They will not allow more than 10,000 to 20,000 US troops ­ not enough to pose a serious threat to Iraq, but perhaps enough to keep the situation in Iraqi Kurdistan under control if the Iraqi state disintegrates. This is a serious blow to American war plans because, freed from a threat in the north, Saddam Hussein may concentrate the bulk of his forces in the south opposite Kuwait, posing a tougher problem for an American invasion force.
The Turks have, however, agreed to allow 150 US experts to inspect their ports and air bases to determine what upgrading may be required in the event of war. But they have not so far authorized the upgrading to proceed, in spite of the visit to Ankara this week of General Richard Myers, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff.
Taking a cue from the French, the Turks have said that, before they make any move, they must await a decision by the UN Security Council. They cannot and will not act in advance of a Security Council Resolution. If the Council authorizes the use of force, Turkey will then submit the matter to its Parliament. In effect, this sets up a further obstacle to Turkish participation in a war. Dominated by the Justice and Development Party following its victory at the Nov. 3 elections, the Turkish Parliament reflects grass-roots opinion ­ and Turkish opinion is overwhelmingly against the war. A negative vote in the Turkish Parliament could, therefore, prove highly embarrassing for the United States.
In negotiations with Washington, the Turks have stressed that they have lost between $50 billion and $100 billion in trade revenues over the last dozen years because of economic sanctions against Iraq. Hardest hit were the provinces bordering Iraq, prompting disgruntled, unemployed young Kurds to turn to politics and take up arms against the state. The $2 billion which the US is said to have offered in compensation is considered wholly inadequate. The Turkish argument is that a war will inflict further damage to trade with Iraq and would require large-scale compensation.
Turkey wants to trade with Iraq, not make war on it. In a highly significant gesture at a time of great regional tension, a delegation of 350 Turkish businessmen, led by a minister, visited Baghdad earlier this month. Turkey is involved in several infrastructure projects in Iraq ­ including the rehabilitation of the Baghdad electricity system ­ and does not want these valuable commercial ties to be disrupted.
Another striking development is that the key players in Turkey, who have traditionally been at odds ­ the military chiefs, the powerful National Security Council, the civilian politicians, the Foreign Ministry bureaucracy ­ have moved to a common position, which was thrashed out at a recent “summit” meeting at the Turkish presidency. All the players recognized that, caught between Washington’s eagerness for war and a public wholly opposed to it, Turkey was caught in a dilemma. Hence the need for unity, and great caution by the military. Last week, General Hilmi Oskok, chief of the general staff, declared that a war “would be against Turkey’s interests.”
Turkey’s overriding fear is that an American invasion will lead to the break-up of Iraq, inciting the Kurds in the north to declare an independent state of their own. Any such development could re-ignite separatist fires among Turkey’s own Kurds, and threaten Turkey’s territorial integrity. No one in Turkey has forgotten the bitter 15-year war against the PKK which ended in 1998.
Last week, a clash in eastern Turkey between security forces and separatist guerrillas led to the death of 12 guerrillas, believed to be PKK members. It was a reminder that the movement was far from dead and an ominous sign of what could happen if the situation in northern Iraq were to spin out of control.
Turkish sources are unanimous in saying there is no confidence, among either the military or the politicians, that the United States could control the situation in the north if the Iraqi state were to fall apart. The Afghan precedent, where warlords in far-flung provinces continue to challenge the authority of Kabul, is not encouraging. Turkey, which at present heads the international force in Afghanistan, is looking forward to ending its commitment there and pulling out.
What the Turks will seek from the US, in the event of war, is a green light to cross into northern Iraq whenever they judge that Kurdish separatism needs knocking on the head.
In brief, the Turks fear the aftermath of a war against Iraq, rather than the war itself, which they have little doubt the United States could win with ease, with or without its allies. However, they predict a long period of chaos and instability which, by encouraging Kurdish ambitions, could infect and disturb all Iraq’s neighbors.
By taking the lead in opposing the war, and by reaching out to the Arabs and Iran, the new regime in Turkey has aroused the anger of the neo-conservatives and Zionist extremists who have captured American foreign policy. Last week, William Safire, a prominent New York Times columnist close to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, wrote a stinging rebuke of Turkey. And, as a senior American official put it privately the other day, “Unless Turkey hops on the American bandwagon pretty soon, it risks hearing a busy signal when it next tries to ring Washington.”
Turkey’s new regime has endured and survived a baptism of fire in its first weeks in office. Its campaign for EU membership failed to secure a clear “Yes,” causing Turkish elites to fear that Europe might say “No” at the end of the day. The Cyprus issue is on the boil, with Ankara facing a confrontation with the Turkish Cypriot leadership. On the economic front, the government is wrestling with the worst recession since the World War II. And, if this were not enough, the United States threatens the whole region with a conflict of unpredictable consequences, and is pressuring Turkey to participate.
PM Gul and party leader Tayib Recep Erdogan have so far conducted themselves with admirable coolness, caution and good sense. They need, and deserve, all the support they can get from Europe and the Arab world.

Patrick Seale, a veteran Middle East analyst, wrote this commentary for The Daily Star

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/opinion/24_01_03_d.htm