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Poll Results Suggest Public Opinion Polls Don't Reflect Public's Views
The Retro Poll organization released results of a pilot poll on the War on Terrorism which show that people who have succumbed to government-media misinformation on Iraq and Terrorism are 2:1 in favor of war on Iraq; but people who have the facts straight are 4:1 against war.
October 17, 2002….PRESS RELEASE…...for immediate release…………..
WAR ON TERRORISM:
Polling Organization Sets Sights on Government-Media Disinformation
Poll results suggest public opinion polls don’t reflect public’s views
Rolling out a unique new approach to national opinion surveys, the Retro Poll organization has released results of a pilot poll on the War on Terrorism.
Carried out between September 20 and October 6, the poll couples knowledge and opinion polling. The Retro Poll attempts to show that public opinion is molded by media misinformation and disinformation (propaganda). It addresses the question: does the public opinion reported in the usual major media polls reflect the true values and beliefs of those Americans polled, or not?
Results of the pilot poll of 150 people from 39 states support concerns that they do not. Retro Poll showed a link between misinformation on Iraq and support for a new U.S. war against that country. Question 6 on the poll asked: “Is there evidence that Saddam Hussein (of Iraq) worked with Al Qaeda?” 65 people said yes, 33 people said no, and 45 didn’t know. Later the poll asked whether 5 different elements should be part of the war on terrorism. One of these elements was: Do you support or reject war against Iraq or other countries the U.S. labels as ‘supporting terrorism’ when they are not attacking anyone?” Those (33) who said there is little or no evidence that Iraq worked with Al Qaeda (a fact that Retro Poll fully documents on its web site at Retropoll.org) rejected an unprovoked war on Iraq by a 4:1 margin, while those (60) who said there is evidence that Iraq worked with Al Qaeda favored going to war now by 2:1, a highly significant difference.
This difference (4:1 opposed to war versus the 2:1 favoring war based upon the daily pronouncements of an unsubstantiated threat by government leaders) suggests that by continually highlighting Washington’s viewpoint unchallenged, the news bureaus in the U.S. can change the facts in the minds of many Americans. The opinions formed from those unsubstantiated facts are then used by polling organizations to report back the values, ideas, and thinking of the public.
Other Retro Poll results suggest that the values of Americans remain strongly democratic and fair. This was demonstrated by Poll results on elements in the war on terrorism. 80.4% of the respondents rejected the use of outlawed techniques such as torture against detainees. 82.7% supported the idea that the U.S. should have to prove its accusations against nations before attacking them. 71 % rejected indeterminate detention of arrestees (citizens and non-citizens) without charges, proofs, or trials. 89.2% supported the position that the U.S. should support international attempts to prosecute war crimes.
Many respondents knew three of the background facts tested. Two thirds knew that Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1991. 50% knew that the U.S. does not have much world support for a military invasion of Iraq. And 44% knew that the U.S. provided money and training to Osama Bin Laden and his followers in the 1980s. But much smaller proportions knew the answers to questions asked about CIA sponsorship of the September 11, 1973 coup against the Chilean government, about Saddam Hussein’s lack of nuclear weapons, about condemnation of the U.S. by the World Court for sponsorship of Contra terrorism in the 1980s, or about the killing of 84 children by Israel’s Army as a response to the uprising (September 2000-January 2001) before Palestinian suicide bombers began to kill Israeli children.
In a series of opinion questions on Israel-Palestine 91.6% believe that suicide bombing is a terrorist act; 65.6% said that Israel’s targeting Palestinian activists or leaders for assassination equates to State Terrorism. But asked whether, as Israel’s chief sponsor, the U.S. might be held accountable for backing State Terrorism only 38.7% said yes. Finally respondents were asked whether they would support an American policy which required Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories as a condition for continuing U.S. military and economic aid. 46% said yes, 32.4% said no and 21.6% gave no opinion.
Although the margin of error on individual poll questions ranged from plus or minus 6 to 8% the relationship between advocacy of war on Iraq and misinformation on basic facts is statistically unlikely to have occurred by chance. This association reveals that what is actually being reported by most major polls is the ability of the Government and the Media to change the public perception by headlining exaggerated or erroneous government provided information (propaganda). Retro Poll calls on the Corporate Media to carry out their democratic responsibility to bring forth and highlight the truth when government pronouncements are found to lack a firm factual basis.
For more information or commentary go to retropoll.org or contact:
Marc Sapir MD, MPH
Director
Retro Poll
510-848-3826
pager: 510-466-0237
Warren Gold MD
Director
Retro Poll
415-476-2092
WAR ON TERRORISM:
Polling Organization Sets Sights on Government-Media Disinformation
Poll results suggest public opinion polls don’t reflect public’s views
Rolling out a unique new approach to national opinion surveys, the Retro Poll organization has released results of a pilot poll on the War on Terrorism.
Carried out between September 20 and October 6, the poll couples knowledge and opinion polling. The Retro Poll attempts to show that public opinion is molded by media misinformation and disinformation (propaganda). It addresses the question: does the public opinion reported in the usual major media polls reflect the true values and beliefs of those Americans polled, or not?
Results of the pilot poll of 150 people from 39 states support concerns that they do not. Retro Poll showed a link between misinformation on Iraq and support for a new U.S. war against that country. Question 6 on the poll asked: “Is there evidence that Saddam Hussein (of Iraq) worked with Al Qaeda?” 65 people said yes, 33 people said no, and 45 didn’t know. Later the poll asked whether 5 different elements should be part of the war on terrorism. One of these elements was: Do you support or reject war against Iraq or other countries the U.S. labels as ‘supporting terrorism’ when they are not attacking anyone?” Those (33) who said there is little or no evidence that Iraq worked with Al Qaeda (a fact that Retro Poll fully documents on its web site at Retropoll.org) rejected an unprovoked war on Iraq by a 4:1 margin, while those (60) who said there is evidence that Iraq worked with Al Qaeda favored going to war now by 2:1, a highly significant difference.
This difference (4:1 opposed to war versus the 2:1 favoring war based upon the daily pronouncements of an unsubstantiated threat by government leaders) suggests that by continually highlighting Washington’s viewpoint unchallenged, the news bureaus in the U.S. can change the facts in the minds of many Americans. The opinions formed from those unsubstantiated facts are then used by polling organizations to report back the values, ideas, and thinking of the public.
Other Retro Poll results suggest that the values of Americans remain strongly democratic and fair. This was demonstrated by Poll results on elements in the war on terrorism. 80.4% of the respondents rejected the use of outlawed techniques such as torture against detainees. 82.7% supported the idea that the U.S. should have to prove its accusations against nations before attacking them. 71 % rejected indeterminate detention of arrestees (citizens and non-citizens) without charges, proofs, or trials. 89.2% supported the position that the U.S. should support international attempts to prosecute war crimes.
Many respondents knew three of the background facts tested. Two thirds knew that Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1991. 50% knew that the U.S. does not have much world support for a military invasion of Iraq. And 44% knew that the U.S. provided money and training to Osama Bin Laden and his followers in the 1980s. But much smaller proportions knew the answers to questions asked about CIA sponsorship of the September 11, 1973 coup against the Chilean government, about Saddam Hussein’s lack of nuclear weapons, about condemnation of the U.S. by the World Court for sponsorship of Contra terrorism in the 1980s, or about the killing of 84 children by Israel’s Army as a response to the uprising (September 2000-January 2001) before Palestinian suicide bombers began to kill Israeli children.
In a series of opinion questions on Israel-Palestine 91.6% believe that suicide bombing is a terrorist act; 65.6% said that Israel’s targeting Palestinian activists or leaders for assassination equates to State Terrorism. But asked whether, as Israel’s chief sponsor, the U.S. might be held accountable for backing State Terrorism only 38.7% said yes. Finally respondents were asked whether they would support an American policy which required Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories as a condition for continuing U.S. military and economic aid. 46% said yes, 32.4% said no and 21.6% gave no opinion.
Although the margin of error on individual poll questions ranged from plus or minus 6 to 8% the relationship between advocacy of war on Iraq and misinformation on basic facts is statistically unlikely to have occurred by chance. This association reveals that what is actually being reported by most major polls is the ability of the Government and the Media to change the public perception by headlining exaggerated or erroneous government provided information (propaganda). Retro Poll calls on the Corporate Media to carry out their democratic responsibility to bring forth and highlight the truth when government pronouncements are found to lack a firm factual basis.
For more information or commentary go to retropoll.org or contact:
Marc Sapir MD, MPH
Director
Retro Poll
510-848-3826
pager: 510-466-0237
Warren Gold MD
Director
Retro Poll
415-476-2092
For more information:
http://www.retropoll.org
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This is great!
I actually don't have any good updated fax list, M., and have been too busy to try to compile one. But as far as media, I have a good site that just groups all the local news websites:
http://www.enewswires.com/sfbnews.html
Great work!
I actually don't have any good updated fax list, M., and have been too busy to try to compile one. But as far as media, I have a good site that just groups all the local news websites:
http://www.enewswires.com/sfbnews.html
Great work!
Check it out. Their website is a hoot!! This will surely be noted as a very scientific polling organization by the crew at indybay. Check out how slanted their questions are, even providing a link for the right answers. And don't you know their voice inflections when asking these questions are predominant. "(softly and sweetly) Do you believe that the current democratically-elected president of Iraq, Saddam Hussein, who was voted to remain in office by 100% of the freedom-loving citizens of Iraq should be removed from power (LOUDLY AND GRUFF) by those arrogant, warmongering capitalist from the United States?" And a sampling of 150 people from 39 states. Oh yeah, that's scientific. Someone needs to teach them how to conduct a poll. Good for a laugh tho.
can you imagine if the gov't even spent half the time, energy, and money, that goes into pushing this stupid war, on pushing/developing the political will to develop and use alternative fuels, and encouraging conservation of fossil fuels instead of driving gas guzzling SUVs, building public transportation systems, offering generous subsidies for people who install solar panels in their homes or rental properties etc., etc???
actually I subscribe to Gallup and over the last 10 weeks their polls have showed the American public signifigantly opposed to the War on Terrorism as well as not feeling a case has been made for war in Iraq.
hey, Even the infamous republican advisor to Clinton, Dick Morris, who runs the vote.com polling site published an article lately about how telephone polls are not capable of accurately assessing the public's position, primarily because so many people have blocked telemarketers from calling, or will hang up as soon as they hear the poller's voice. And the distribution of people who block the telemarketers disproportionately lean towards the more educated and liberal parts of the population. He said that the 2000 telephone polls significantly failed to match the actual voting patterns in the presidential election, and pollers will have to figure out different methods such as filtering their data in order to produce something matching reality.
hmmmm, i gotta wonder about that 2000 election thing .. you know there is an awful lot of suspicion about a rigged election, so what did their polls predict? A large victory for Gore? They were probably right!
>>>2000 telephone polls significantly failed to match the actual voting patterns in the presidential election
>>>so what did their polls predict? A large victory for Gore?
2000 polls showed Bush/Gore a statistical dead heat. That's what happened. It's fun to watch you attempt to rewrite history.
>>>so what did their polls predict? A large victory for Gore?
2000 polls showed Bush/Gore a statistical dead heat. That's what happened. It's fun to watch you attempt to rewrite history.
a dead heat? No. Gore actually won a majority of the vote, but was defeated due to the redrawing of electoral districts and a drooling Republican mob banging on the windows of the recount office in Tallahasee.
"Statistical" dead heat. Learn to read.
>>Gore actually won a majority of the vote
You asleep while electorial college was discussed in civics class? Seems you're still asleep. Stay that way. You're more fun.
>>defeated due to the redrawing of electoral districts
The electoral votes go to the candidate who receives the majority of votes in the State. What the fuck does electorial districts have to do with it? The districts don't vote.
>>drooling Republican mob banging on the windows of the recount office in Tallahasee.
Actually the "mob" was in Miami. Oh yeah, everyone trembled in fear at a bunch of people in coats and ties protesting illegal standards to vote counting.
Gore lost. So did your buddy Hitler. Get over it.
>>Gore actually won a majority of the vote
You asleep while electorial college was discussed in civics class? Seems you're still asleep. Stay that way. You're more fun.
>>defeated due to the redrawing of electoral districts
The electoral votes go to the candidate who receives the majority of votes in the State. What the fuck does electorial districts have to do with it? The districts don't vote.
>>drooling Republican mob banging on the windows of the recount office in Tallahasee.
Actually the "mob" was in Miami. Oh yeah, everyone trembled in fear at a bunch of people in coats and ties protesting illegal standards to vote counting.
Gore lost. So did your buddy Hitler. Get over it.
They were a drooling mob. Many had baseball bats, coat and ties were less evident than drunken rednecks in shattered semen stained jeans and numerous polling officials were threatened or attacked as the mob physically assaulted the premises, smashing windows and banging on doors.
--"respondents were asked whether they would support an American policy which required Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories as a condition for continuing U.S. military and economic aid. 46% said yes, 32.4% said no and 21.6% gave no opinion."
Since some of the pro-Israelis on here claim that calling for an end to US aid to Israel is "anti-Semitic," I guess then by their standards, something like 46% of the US population are "anti-Semites."
No wonder they have to keep up all the hard work of constant propagandizing...
Since some of the pro-Israelis on here claim that calling for an end to US aid to Israel is "anti-Semitic," I guess then by their standards, something like 46% of the US population are "anti-Semites."
No wonder they have to keep up all the hard work of constant propagandizing...
some of you are difficult to have a noncynical discussion with. Here is the Dick Morris article I was referring to:
http://www.hillnews.com/issues/092502/morris.shtm
SEPTEMBER 25, 2002
<http://www.hillnews.com/global/morris.jpg> Dick Morris
The Political Life
The perils of polling
Polling is in trouble. Big trouble. The data is no longer reliable and won?t be for several more years. Why were all the national polls (except Zogby) wrong in predicting that George Bush would get more votes than Al Gore in 2000? Why were all the polls wrong again in predicting a close Senate race between Rep. Rick Lazio (R) and Hillary Clinton in New York that same year? The telephone poll is no longer a credible method of measuring public opinion. In 28 states, the state legislatures have passed laws giving telephone users the right to opt out of receiving telemarketing phone calls, including public opinion surveys. More and more voters are availing themselves of this right and the pickings for telephone polling firms are getting more and more scarce.
In Connecticut, for example, 29 percent of the state?s households have chosen to use the opt-out and these 500,000 people cannot be contacted by America?s polling organizations. Five percent of Connecticut households join the ranks of those refusing to take telemarketing calls each year.
Even beyond the formal opt-out which makes it illegal to call certain voters when taking public opinion polls, the ?hang up? factor is looming larger and larger in telephone polling. The anger which leads almost one in three of Connecticut?s voters to refuse to take marketing or polling calls exists throughout the land and further reduces the ability of phone surveys to amass a statistically valid sample.
So telephone polling is back where it was in the days of the Literary Digest poll of 1936, which famously predicted an Alf Landon victory over Franklin Roosevelt because of the skewed demographics of a telephone poll.
Especially in off-year elections, the voters who refuse to answer telephone polls are just the ones who will most likely come out and vote on Election Day. Upscale, aware of their rights, and determined to act to protect their privacy, these are the same people who vote when the percentage of voting age population that casts its ballots drops to 35 percent during off-year contests.
The problem is that there is no substitute that is any better. In-person polling has not been feasible for many years. Whatever tales the polling firms tell, their interviewers are not the sort who will willingly risk their lives by canvassing ghetto apartment buildings in the evening. Besides, the cost and time required for personal interviews makes it prohibitive for a political contest.
Internet polling is growing more reliable every day, except for its blind spot ? the 40 percent of Americans who do not go online.
According to the Census Bureau at the start of 2002, 60 percent of whites used the Internet, 40 percent of blacks and 34 percent of Hispanics. Interestingly, 25 percent of the poorest fifth of the nation used the Internet.
As the opt outs from telephone polling increase and Internet use continues to grow by about 8 percent each year, Internet surveys will become more accurate than telephone interviewing. But, now, the number of opt outs and the proportion of the voters who do not go online are about the same in many states. Of course, the voters who refuse phone polls are more likely to vote than those who won?t use the Internet, but each medium has its own blind spot at the moment.
The other problem with Internet polling is that it is difficult to get a statewide list of e-names. An essential premise of polling is that each voter must have an equal opportunity to participate. But with opt-outs on the one hand and the limited availability of e-names on the other, this requirement is a practical impossibility in current American life.
Many will find the difficulty in polling something about which they do not get too upset. But we need to take all polls conducted in this atmosphere with a healthy dose of skepticism. The pinpoint accuracy that was possible in earlier days is no longer achievable. Politicians and pollsters must admit the new shortcomings of their once highly reliable polls.
Dick Morris is a former political consultant to President Clinton, Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and other political figures. His new book, Power Plays: Win or Lose, is published by Harper Collins.
http://www.hillnews.com/issues/092502/morris.shtm
SEPTEMBER 25, 2002
<http://www.hillnews.com/global/morris.jpg> Dick Morris
The Political Life
The perils of polling
Polling is in trouble. Big trouble. The data is no longer reliable and won?t be for several more years. Why were all the national polls (except Zogby) wrong in predicting that George Bush would get more votes than Al Gore in 2000? Why were all the polls wrong again in predicting a close Senate race between Rep. Rick Lazio (R) and Hillary Clinton in New York that same year? The telephone poll is no longer a credible method of measuring public opinion. In 28 states, the state legislatures have passed laws giving telephone users the right to opt out of receiving telemarketing phone calls, including public opinion surveys. More and more voters are availing themselves of this right and the pickings for telephone polling firms are getting more and more scarce.
In Connecticut, for example, 29 percent of the state?s households have chosen to use the opt-out and these 500,000 people cannot be contacted by America?s polling organizations. Five percent of Connecticut households join the ranks of those refusing to take telemarketing calls each year.
Even beyond the formal opt-out which makes it illegal to call certain voters when taking public opinion polls, the ?hang up? factor is looming larger and larger in telephone polling. The anger which leads almost one in three of Connecticut?s voters to refuse to take marketing or polling calls exists throughout the land and further reduces the ability of phone surveys to amass a statistically valid sample.
So telephone polling is back where it was in the days of the Literary Digest poll of 1936, which famously predicted an Alf Landon victory over Franklin Roosevelt because of the skewed demographics of a telephone poll.
Especially in off-year elections, the voters who refuse to answer telephone polls are just the ones who will most likely come out and vote on Election Day. Upscale, aware of their rights, and determined to act to protect their privacy, these are the same people who vote when the percentage of voting age population that casts its ballots drops to 35 percent during off-year contests.
The problem is that there is no substitute that is any better. In-person polling has not been feasible for many years. Whatever tales the polling firms tell, their interviewers are not the sort who will willingly risk their lives by canvassing ghetto apartment buildings in the evening. Besides, the cost and time required for personal interviews makes it prohibitive for a political contest.
Internet polling is growing more reliable every day, except for its blind spot ? the 40 percent of Americans who do not go online.
According to the Census Bureau at the start of 2002, 60 percent of whites used the Internet, 40 percent of blacks and 34 percent of Hispanics. Interestingly, 25 percent of the poorest fifth of the nation used the Internet.
As the opt outs from telephone polling increase and Internet use continues to grow by about 8 percent each year, Internet surveys will become more accurate than telephone interviewing. But, now, the number of opt outs and the proportion of the voters who do not go online are about the same in many states. Of course, the voters who refuse phone polls are more likely to vote than those who won?t use the Internet, but each medium has its own blind spot at the moment.
The other problem with Internet polling is that it is difficult to get a statewide list of e-names. An essential premise of polling is that each voter must have an equal opportunity to participate. But with opt-outs on the one hand and the limited availability of e-names on the other, this requirement is a practical impossibility in current American life.
Many will find the difficulty in polling something about which they do not get too upset. But we need to take all polls conducted in this atmosphere with a healthy dose of skepticism. The pinpoint accuracy that was possible in earlier days is no longer achievable. Politicians and pollsters must admit the new shortcomings of their once highly reliable polls.
Dick Morris is a former political consultant to President Clinton, Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and other political figures. His new book, Power Plays: Win or Lose, is published by Harper Collins.
"Many had baseball bats, ...drunken rednecks in shattered semen stained jeans and numerous polling officials were threatened or attacked as the mob physically assaulted the premises, smashing windows and banging on doors."
ROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL ANOTHER ONE
JUST LIKE THE OTHER ONE
YOU'VE BEEN HOLDING ON TO IT
AND I SURE... WOULD.... LIKE... A... HIT
DON'T...BO...GART...THAT...JOINT, MY FRIEND
PASS IT OVER TO ME
DON'T...BO...GART...THAT...JOINT, MY FRIEND
PASS IT OVER..TO...ME.
ROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL ANOTHER ONE
JUST LIKE THE OTHER ONE
YOU'VE BEEN HOLDING ON TO IT
AND I SURE... WOULD.... LIKE... A... HIT
DON'T...BO...GART...THAT...JOINT, MY FRIEND
PASS IT OVER TO ME
DON'T...BO...GART...THAT...JOINT, MY FRIEND
PASS IT OVER..TO...ME.
yes we are aware Geoge Bush and other conservatives are consumers of vast quantities of illegal drugs, which is probably why they have no representation in the academic world. Ol' Georgy loved his coke, I'm sure you feel left behind now that he had to give it up for politics.
Just not enough money in it.
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