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Indybay Feature
The Decapitation of American Journalism
Daniel Pearl / secret services / White House / media / lies
When Daniel Pearl’s kidnappers accused him of
being an agent of the CIA or the Mossad, their
allegations were quickly dismissed as the unrealistic
ranting of paranoid barbarians. Later, when the
kidnappers decided to distribute their home movie of
Mr. Pearl’s unfortunate execution, a copy wound up in
the hands of a journalist/FBI mole in Karachi. If
only these terrorists had made their mark! An innocent
journalist might be alive today.
Oh well, innocent people die in war, and not every victim gets the honor of having their face and
gruesome details plastered across newspapers and web sites around the globe. Name one of the soldiers who died in the Phillippines last week, or one Afghan who found herself standing under a rain of US bombs in the war against terror. It is contrary to the progress of
the war to dwell on the individual humanity of every
corpse. Yet, to express its moral outrage at Pearl’s
murder, the U.S. government is offering a $5 million
reward for his killers’ heads. Meanwhile, Uncle Sam’s
other hand is busy slaughtering all of the principles
for which Mr. Pearl’s obituaries say he stood:
fairness, accuracy and truth.
In a few short months, the administration of a
president known for his stumbling tongue has slipped
an inordinate number of lies and mistruths into our
sophisticated news machine. Lies infiltrate instantly
these days, and by the time the truth is known, at
least two versions of reality have been floated out
into the market. By the time it was finally leaked
that the Pentagon had established a news network of
its own to “wag the dog,” only the ignorant masses of
America had not detected something foul (if you still
believe the polls). Our government has been working
to influence public opinion on a global scale, and
this has involved the telling of lies, some of them
obvious.
Now we’re expected to believe that the Office of Strategic Influence no longer exists. This successful spook operation has been emptied out like a Knight Ridder newsroom. Rumsfeld handed out pink slips to the Pentagon’s graphic arts team, the same guys who
littered Afghanistan with leaflets of computer-generated Osamas in business suits and short
hair. Who is left behind to assure that the weekly
military aircraft disaster gets quickly labeled as
“mechanical failure”?
I wonder about these things when I see Daniel
Pearl smiling out at me from the cover of CNN.com.
Like one of those dashing young Green Berets or CIA
agents with hearts of gold, his death in this war is
taking precedence over the deaths of the faceless
many. The Office of Strategic Influence is intact all
right, and its only motive is our positive sentiment
toward their war. If avenging Danny’s horrible death
will keep this week’s poll numbers high, by God
they’ll spin it that way. After all, war isn't hell --
it's PR.
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That would be sad indeed. It is not clear if you are at all interested in finding and punishing the murderers. How would you do it? You don’t say. Maybe you to busy gloating about his murder and the brutal manner that it was carried out.
On the other hand, maybe you have no clue as to what to do, without sounding like those you wish to discredit. Is it possible that our enemies are wrong 100% of the time in their decision-making and their actions? Or is it possible that they may sometimes choose the same path that we would choose? If they do, would you recognize it as common ground? Unfortunately, too many people like you live in Israel and Palestine and cannot see that we are more alike than different.
Finally, your elitist attitude is not well camouflaged. You are one of those that believes that the average American is too stupid to vote and you would have a small number of your peers, if you have any, to determine the next those that would represent the ignorant masses in government.
One of the ignorant masses
Does anyone know the name of the 10 soldiers who died in the helicopter crash in the Philippine, just days from the Pearl killing? Where any of the wives interviewed? Does anybody know if any were fathers, brothers, sons, uncles, or whaever?
And, I will bet, that know one can tell me their race and religion--that was too ordinary.
No big speech by politicians. Just ordinary run-of-the-mill soldiers who no one will ever hear about in our almost perfect, victimless war.
Peace
That's how much sense you make, "One of the Ignorant.
I might say the same to you, but I won't. If you're so sure I'm senseless and you're right, why don't you pick a topic and try stringing together 500 words of argument, instead of slinging petty insults. Then we'll let our fellow readers decide who is an "idiot."
Read Cockburn and St. Clair's Whiteout: the CIA, Drugs and the Press and discover how the CIA gave a helping hand to the opium lords who took over Afghanistan, thus ushering the Taliban into power.
CounterPunch: Complete Coverage of 9/11 and the War on Afghanistan
New Print Edition of CounterPunch Published February 20: the Lie That Won Bush the Election; Harvey Matusow: the Death of a Snitch; an Honest Outlaw, the Legacy of Waylon Jennings; Jack Henry Abbott and the New Anti-Crime Wave; Debating Liberal Laptop Bombers. Subscribe Now!
March 1, 2002
Brendan Sexton III
What's Wrong With Black Hawk Down: an Actor Speaks Out
Terry Diggs
Why Twain's Pudd'nhead
Wilson Still Matters
David Krieger
Nuclear Terrorism
and US Nuclear Policy
February 28, 2002
James T. Phillips
Baghdad, Spring 1992
Gideon Samet
Sharon Must Go
Rep. Ron Paul
Before We Bomb Iraq
M. Shahid Alam
Samuel Huntington:
Peddling Civilizational Wars
St. Clair / Cockburn
Rumble from the Jungle:
Ecaudorian Farmers Fight
DynCorp's ChemWar
February 27, 2002
Eric Hobsbawm
The Future of War and Peace
John Troyer
About that WTC Memorial
Mokhiber / Weissman
Wired for Democracy
or Business?
Alexander Cockburn
Daniel Pearl: Should His
Editors Have Sent Him There?
February 26, 2002
Jonathan Steele
Kabul's Loss
Vasily Streltsov
The Pentagon in
the Transcaucusas
CounterPunch Wire
How Corporations Use Shadowy "527" Groups to Influence Politicians
Lt. Col. Robert Bowman
ABM Treaty: Alive or Dead?
Rep. Dennis Kucinich
A Prayer for America
February 25, 2002
John Clarke
Interrogated at US Border
Blankfort, Poirier, Zeltzer
ADL Blinks, Settles Spying Case
Alex Lynch
Naked from Sin:
The Ordeal of Nahla
and Sami Al-Arian
John Chuckman
Ashcroft Speaks in Tongues
February 24, 2002
David Vest
Skate Date
February 23, 2002
Tom Turnipseed
Axis of Evil and
Media Monopolies
Bahour/Dahan
Cracks in the Occupation
February 22, 2002
Alexander Cockburn
Axel of Evil: Sex Crimes
and the Constitution
February 21, 2002
Gary Leupp
The Philippines: Second Front in US's Global War
David Vest
Reagan Clone Project?
Mokhiber and Weissman
Chicago School and Corporate America: Rotten to the Core
February 20, 2002
Bernard Weiner
The Shallow Throat Document
Kay Lee
The Prison Guard Who Never Owned Up to His Crimes
February 19, 2002
David Orr
Waylon Jennings, the Duke,
and the Navajo
John Chuckman
The Devil and Georgie Bush
Prudence Crowther
Giblet Gravitas
Ramzi Kysia
Caught in the Iraq DMZ
February 18, 2002
Ron Jacobs
The US and Iran
George Lewandowski
Empire in Declline
Lenni Brenner
Life and Death of a Folk Hero
February 17, 2002
Robert Fisk
Lost in a Pit of Desperation
February 16, 2002
Phillip Cryan
Colombia in War Time
February 15, 2002
C.G. Estabrook
From New York to Porto Alegre
Robert O'Brien
The View from Porto Alegre
Mokhiber/Weissman
Resisting the Assassins
February 14, 2002
Levy and Easton
Ante Pavelic
Real Butcher of the Balkans
Joan Claybrook
Dear Jeb Bush,
About You and Enron
John Chuckman
Time for a Woman Prez
Alexander Cockburn
Banning the Koran
February 13, 2002
Sen. Russ Feingold
War Powers and
the War on Terror
Tom Turnipseed
Bush's Folly
George Monbiot
American Imperialism
February 12, 2002
Uri Avnery
The Great Game:
Oil, Sharon and Iran
Tommy Ates
Black Land Loss
February 11, 2002
Walt Brasch
The Synergizing of America
John Troyer
Enron's Deep Throat?
February 9, 2002
John Blair
Criticize Cheney, Go to Jail
A Photographic Journal of Life in an Afghan Refugee Camp
By Judith Mann
Resources:
100s of Links About 9/11
CounterPunch:
Complete Coverage of 9/11 and Its Aftermath
Five Days That
Shook The World:
Seattle and Beyond
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and Jeffrey St. Clair
Photos by Allan Sekula
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CIA's Assassination Plan a History of Torture in US Prisons
bin Laden and Bush Business Connections
Aisha Ikramuddin on the Hidden Hype of US Food Bombs
Peter Linebaugh on Pakistan
Christopher Hitchens' Love for Mrs. Thatcher
Jiang Zemin Tells Bush:
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Read Whiteout and Find Out How the CIA's Backing of the Mujahideen Created the World's Most Robust Heroin Market and Helped to Finance the Rise of the Taliban and Osama bin Laden
Whiteout:
CIA, Drugs & the Press
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and Jeffrey St. Clair
The New Crusade:
America's War on Terrorism
By Rahul Mahajan
The Memphis Blues Again:
Six Decades of Memphis Music Photographs
Photos by Ernest Withers
Text by Daniel Wolff
The New Intifada:
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Al Gore:
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Private Warriors
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CounterPunch's Booktalk March 1, 2002
American Journal
Sex, Sweat, Feet
and the Working Class
By Alexander Cockburn
Chalk up another milestone for sex ed. The University of California at Berkeley has put a "male sexuality " class on ice after the campus newspaper, The Daily Californian, published allegations that as part of their course students were taken to a strip club where they watched their instructor have sex and also participated in an "orgy" at an party. A female sexuality course is also under review.
It seems these courses have been available under the university's "democratic education" or "de-cal" program, which are sponsored but not funded by the university. They are organized and run by student instructors and can be taken for credit toward graduation. Other courses include Blackjack, useful for those set on careers as croupiers east of the Sierras, in Las Vegas, and (for dissidents) Copwatch, which instructs students "how to safely and effectively assert their rights when interacting with police."
Christy Kovacs, a Berkeley freshman who was enrolled in the
male sexuality course last semester for two units told the Sacramento Bee newspaper that some students in the class were involved in an orgy at a party where some partygoers also took Polaroid pictures of their genitalia, to show that their bodies were not disgusting. Kovacs said the shots were viewed at the party in a "respectful way". Another student, Jessica McMahon, disclosed to the Daily Californian
that students in the male sexuality class chose
as their final project a trip to a gay strip club. Students apparently watched instructors strip and have sex.
Kovacs says her class also had an instructive excursion to the Garden of Eden strip club. There, a member of the group who was not a student or instructor stripped on stage. "They didn't even take off all their clothes, and there was no sex," the earnest Kovacs continued to the Bee reporter. "It was a class bonding experience," not to mention "positive".
This business of introducing yourself at a party by proffering a Polaroid of your genitals has distinct possibilities, particularly for fetishists. As news of the Berkeley ban came in I happened to be leafing through the analysis of a man code-named "Beta," the foot fetishist in Sexual Aberrations, written by Freud's sometime pal, Wilhelm Stekel. "I must mention," Stekel writes with perhaps excessive enthusiasm, "Beta wasn't in the least animated by women's ankles, legs or lovely shoes." No, the dirty beast "wanted to see the shoe fit tightly" and "is promptly enlivened by the sight of corns and envies every chiropodist he sees. He likes only male feet: red, swollen, dirty, sweaty and inflamed feet".
Beta craved to view and smell only the feet of the poor, not out of class solidarity but because their economic condition meant they had badly fitting shoes in which they worked hard all day: "On warm days, he goes to the Danube where poor working men may be found in droves, bathing their sweaty, swollen feet. It is the sight of these large, red feet which then gives him a thrill. He rushes home to masturbate."
One can imagine Beta politely introducing himself with a Polaroid of those feet. Ms Kovacs, following in Beta's wake as she witnessed his activities, would presumably have commented that it was all uplifting and entirely respectful of feet which, after all, have feelings too.
Eric Hobsbawm
The 20th century was the most murderous in recorded history. The total number of deaths caused by or associated with its wars has been estimated at 187m, the equivalent of more than 10% of the world's population in 1913. Taken as having begun in 1914, it was a century of almost unbroken war, with few and brief periods without organised armed conflict somewhere. It was dominated by world wars: that is to say, by wars between territorial states or alliances of states.
The period from 1914 to 1945 can be regarded as a single "30 years' war" interrupted only by a pause in the 1920s - between the final withdrawal of the Japanese from the Soviet Far East in 1922 and the attack on Manchuria in 1931. This was followed, almost immediately, by some 40 years of cold war, which conformed to Hobbes's definition of war as consisting "not in battle only or the act of fighting, but in a tract of time wherein the will to contend by battle is sufficiently known". It is a matter for debate how far the actions in which US armed forces have been involved since the end of the cold war in various parts of the globe constitute a continuation of the era of world war. There can be no doubt, however, that the 1990s were filled with formal and informal military conflict in Europe, Africa and western and central Asia. The world as a whole has not been at peace since 1914, and is not at peace now.
Nevertheless, the century cannot be treated as a single block, either chronologically or geographically. Chronologically, it falls into three periods: the era of world war centred on Germany (1914 to 1945), the era of confrontation between the two superpowers (1945 to 1989), and the era since the end of the classic international power system. I shall call these periods I, II and III. Geographically, the impact of military operations has been highly unequal. With one exception (the Chaco war of 1932-35), there were no significant inter-state wars (as distinct from civil wars) in the western hemisphere (the Americas) in the 20th century. Enemy military operations have barely touched these territories: hence the shock of the bombing of the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon on September 11.
Since 1945 inter-state wars have also disappeared from Europe, which had until then been the main battlefield region. Although in period III, war returned to south-east Europe, it seems very unlikely to recur in the rest of the continent. On the other hand, during period II inter-state wars, not necessarily unconnected with the global confrontation, remained endemic in the Middle East and south Asia, and major wars directly springing from the global confrontation took place in east and south-east Asia (Korea, Indochina). At the same time, areas such as sub-Saharan Africa, which had been comparatively unaffected by war in period I (apart from Ethiopia, belatedly subject to colonial conquest by Italy in 1935-36), came to be theatres of armed conflict during period II, and witnessed major scenes of carnage and suffering in period III.
Two other characteristics of war in the 20th century stand out, the first less obviously than the second. At the start of the 21st century we find ourselves in a world where armed operations are no longer essentially in the hands of governments or their authorised agents, and where the contending parties have no common characteristics, status or objectives, except the willingness to use violence.
Inter-state wars dominated the image of war so much in periods I and II that civil wars or other armed conflicts within the territories of existing states or empires were somewhat obscured. Even the civil wars in the territories of the Russian empire after the October revolution, and those which took place after the collapse of the Chinese empire, could be fitted into the framework of international conflicts, insofar as they were inseparable from them. On the other hand, Latin America may not have seen armies crossing state frontiers in the 20th century, but it has been the scene of major civil conflicts: in Mexico after 1911, for instance, in Colombia since 1948, and in various central American countries during period II. It is not generally recognised that the number of international wars has declined fairly continuously since the mid-1960s, when internal conflicts became more common than those fought between states. The number of conflicts within state frontiers continued to rise steeply until it levelled off in the 1990s.
More familiar is the erosion of the distinction between combatants and non-combatants. The two world wars of the first half of the century involved the entire populations of belligerent countries; both combatants and non-combatants suffered. In the course of the century, however, the burden of war shifted increasingly from armed forces to civilians, who were not only its victims, but increasingly the object of military or military-political operations. The contrast between the first world war and the second is dramatic: only 5% of those who died in the first were civilians; in the second, the figure increased to 66%. It is generally supposed that 80 to 90% of those affected by war today are civilians. The proportion has increased since the end of the cold war because most military operations since then have been conducted not by conscript armies, but by small bodies of regular or irregular troops, in many cases operating high-technology weapons and protected against the risk of incurring casualties. There is no reason to doubt that the main victims of war will continue to be civilians.
It would be easier to write about war and peace in the 20th century if the difference between the two remained as clear-cut as it was supposed to be at the beginning of the century, in the days when the Hague conventions of 1899 and 1907 codified the rules of war. Conflicts were supposed to take place primarily between sovereign states or, if they occurred within the territory of one particular state, between parties sufficiently organised to be accorded belligerent status by other sovereign states. War was supposed to be sharply distinguished from peace, by a declaration of war at one end and a treaty of peace at the other. Military operations were supposed to distinguish clearly between combatants - marked as such by the uniforms they wore, or by other signs of belonging to an organised armed force - and non-combatant civilians. War was supposed to be between combatants. Non-combatants should, as far as possible, be protected in wartime.
It was always understood that these conventions did not cover all civil and international armed conflicts, and notably not those arising out of the imperial expansion of western states in regions not under the jurisdiction of internationally recognised sovereign states, even though some (but by no means all) of these conflicts were known as "wars". Nor did they cover large rebellions against established states, such as the so-called Indian mutiny; nor the recurrent armed activity in regions beyond the effective control of the states or imperial authorities nominally ruling them, such as the raiding and blood-feuding in the mountains of Afghanistan or Morocco. Nevertheless, the Hague conventions still served as guidelines in the first world war. In the course of the 20th century, this relative clarity was replaced by confusion.
First, the line between inter-state conflicts and conflicts within states - that is, between international and civil wars - became hazy, because the 20th century was characteristically a century not only of wars, but also of revolutions and the break-up of empires. Revolutions or liberation struggles within a state had implications for the international situation, particularly during the cold war. Conversely, after the Russian revolution, intervention by states in the internal affairs of other states of which they disapproved became common, at least where it seemed comparatively risk-free. This remains the case.
Second, the clear distinction between war and peace became obscure. Except here and there, the second world war neither began with declarations of war nor ended with treaties of peace. It was followed by a period so hard to classify as either war or peace in the old sense that the neologism "cold war" had to be invented to describe it. The sheer obscurity of the position since the cold war is illustrated by the current state of affairs in the Middle East. Neither "peace" nor "war" exactly describes the situation in Iraq since the formal end of the Gulf war - the country is still bombed almost daily by foreign powers - or the relations between Palestinians and Israelis, or those between Israel and its neighbours, Lebanon and Syria. All this is an unfortunate legacy of the 20th-century world wars, but also of war's increasingly powerful machinery of mass propaganda, and of a period of confrontation between incompatible and passion-laden ideologies which brought into wars a crusading element comparable to that seen in religious conflicts of the past.
These conflicts, unlike the traditional wars of the international power system, were increasingly waged for non-negotiable ends such as "unconditional surrender". Since both wars and victories were seen as total, any limitation on a belligerent's capacity to win that might be imposed by the accepted conventions of 18th- and 19th- century warfare - even formal declarations of war - was rejected. So was any limitation on the victors' power to assert their will. Experience had shown that agreements reached in peace treaties could easily be broken.
In recent years the situation has been further complicated by the tendency in public rhetoric for the term "war" to be used to refer to the deployment of organised force against various national or international activities regarded as anti-social - "the war against the Mafia", for example, or "the war against drug cartels". In these conflicts the actions of two types of armed force are confused. One - let's call them "soldiers" - is directed against other armed forces with the object of defeating them. The other - let's call them "police" - sets out to maintain or re-establish the required degree of law and public order within an existing political entity, typically a state. Victory, which has no necessary moral connotation, is the object of one force; the bringing to justice of offenders against the law, which does have a moral connotation, is the object of the other. Such a distinction is easier to draw in theory than in practice, however. Homicide by a soldier in battle is not, in itself, a breach of the law. But what if a member of the IRA regards himself as a belligerent, even though official UK law regards him as a murderer?
Were the operations in Northern Ireland a war, as the IRA held, or an attempt in the face of law-breakers to maintain orderly government in one province of the UK? Since not only a formidable local police force but a national army was mobilised against the IRA for 30 years or so, we may conclude that it was a war, but one systematically run like a police operation, in a way that minimised casualties and the disruption of life in the province. Such are the complexities and confusions of the relations between peace and war at the start of the new century. They are well illustrated by the military and other operations in which the US and its allies are at present engaged.
There is now, as there was throughout the 20th century, a complete absence of any effective global authority capable of controlling or settling armed disputes. Globalisation has advanced in almost every respect - economically, technologically, culturally, even linguistically - except one: politically and militarily, territorial states remain the only effective authorities. There are officially about 200 states, but in practice only a handful count, of which the US is overwhelmingly the most powerful. However, no state or empire has ever been large, rich or powerful enough to maintain hegemony over the political world, let alone to establish political and military supremacy over the globe. A single superpower cannot compensate for the absence of global authorities, especially given the lack of conventions - relating to international disarmament, for instance, or weapons control - strong enough to be voluntarily accepted as binding by major states. Some such authorities exist, notably the UN, various technical and financial bodies such as the IMF, the World Bank and the WTO, and some international tribunals. But none has any effective power other than that granted to them by agreements between states, or thanks to the backing of powerful states, or voluntarily accepted by states. Regrettable as this may be, it isn't likely to change in the foreseeable future.
Since only states wield real power, the risk is that international institutions will be ineffective or lack universal legitimacy when they try to deal with offences such as "war crimes". Even when world courts are established by general agreement (for example, the International Criminal court set up by the UN Rome statute of July 17 1998), their judgments will not necessarily be accepted as legitimate and binding, so long as powerful states are in a position to disregard them. A consortium of powerful states may be strong enough to ensure that some offenders from weaker states are brought before these tribunals, perhaps curbing the cruelty of armed conflict in certain areas. This is an example, however, of the traditional exercise of power and influence within an international state system, not of the exercise of international law.
There is, however, a major difference between the 21st and the 20th century: the idea that war takes place in a world divided into territorial areas under the authority of effective governments which possess a monopoly of the means of public power and coercion has ceased to apply. It was never applicable to countries experiencing revolution, or to the fragments of disintegrated empires, but until recently most new revolutionary or post-colonial regimes - China between 1911 and 1949 is the main exception - emerged fairly quickly as more or less organised and functioning successor regimes and states. Over the past 30 years or so, however, the territorial state has, for various reasons, lost its traditional monopoly of armed force, much of its former stability and power, and, increasingly, the fundamental sense of legitimacy, or at least of accepted permanence, which allows governments to impose burdens such as taxes and conscription on willing citizens. The material equipment for warfare is now widely available to private bodies, as are the means of financing non-state warfare. In this way, the balance between state and non-state organisations has changed.
Armed conflicts within states have become more serious and can continue for decades without any serious prospect of victory or settlement: Kashmir, Angola, Sri Lanka, Chechnya, Colombia. In extreme cases, as in parts of Africa, the state may have virtually ceased to exist; or may, as in Colombia, no longer exercise power over part of its territory. Even in strong and stable states, it has been difficult to eliminate small, unofficial armed groups, such as the IRA in Britain and Eta in Spain. The novelty of this situation is indicated by the fact that the most powerful state on the planet, having suffered a terrorist attack, feels obliged to launch a formal operation against a small, international, non-governmental organisation or network lacking both a territory and a recognisable army.
How do these changes affect the balance of war and peace in the coming century? I would rather not make predictions about the wars that are likely to take place or their possible outcomes. However, both the structure of armed conflict and the methods of settlement have been changed profoundly by the transformation of the world system of sovereign states.
The dissolution of the Soviet Union means that the Great Power system which governed international relations for almost two centuries and, with obvious exceptions, exercised some control over conflicts between states, no longer exists. Its disappearance has removed a major restraint on inter-state warfare and the armed intervention of states in the affairs of other states - foreign territorial borders were largely uncrossed by armed forces during the cold war. The international system was potentially unstable even then, however, as a result of the multiplication of small, sometimes quite weak states, which were nevertheless officially "sovereign" members of the UN.
The disintegration of the Soviet Union and the European communist regimes plainly increased this instability. Separatist tendencies of varying strength in hitherto stable nation-states such as Britain, Spain, Belgium and Italy might well increase it further. At the same time, the number of private actors on the world scene has multiplied. What mechanisms are there for controlling and settling such conflicts? The record is not promising. None of the armed conflicts of the 1990s ended with a stable settlement. The survival of cold war institutions, assumptions and rhetoric has kept old suspicions alive, exacerbating the post-communist disintegration of south-east Europe and making the settlement of the region once known as Yugoslavia more difficult.
These cold war assumptions, both ideological and power-political, will have to be dispensed with if we are to develop some means of controlling armed conflict. It is also evident that the US has failed, and will inevitably fail, to impose a new world order (of any kind) by unilateral force, however much power relations are skewed in its favour at present, and even if it is backed by an (inevitably shortlived) alliance. The international system will remain multilateral and its regulation will depend on the ability of several major units to agree with one another, even though one of these states enjoys military predominance.
How far international military action taken by the US is dependent on the negotiated agreement of other states is already clear. It is also clear that the political settlement of wars, even those in which the US is involved, will be by negotiation and not by unilateral imposition. The era of wars ending in unconditional surrender will not return in the foreseeable future.
The role of existing international bodies, notably the UN, must also be rethought. Always present, and usually called upon, it has no defined role in the settlement of disputes. Its strategy and operation are always at the mercy of shifting power politics. The absence of an international intermediary genuinely considered neutral, and capable of taking action without prior authorisation by the Security Council, has been the most obvious gap in the system of dispute management.
Since the end of the cold war the management of peace and war has been improvised. At best, as in the Balkans, armed conflicts have been stopped by outside armed intervention, and the status quo at the end of hostilities maintained by the armies of third parties. Whether a general model for the future control of armed conflict can emerge from such interventions remains unclear.
The balance of war and peace in the 21st century will depend not on devising more effective mechanisms for negotiation and settlement but on internal stability and the avoidance of military conflict. With a few exceptions, the rivalries and frictions between existing states that led to armed conflict in the past are less likely to do so today. There are, for instance, comparatively few burning disputes between governments about international borders. On the other hand, internal conflicts can easily become violent: the main danger of war lies in the involvement of outside states or military actors in these conflicts.
States with thriving, stable economies and a relatively equitable distribution of goods among their inhabitants are likely to be less shaky - socially and politically - than poor, highly inegalitarian and economically unstable ones. The avoidance or control of internal armed violence depends even more immediately, however, on the powers and effective performance of national governments and their legitimacy in the eyes of the majority of their inhabitants. No government today can take for granted the existence of an unarmed civilian population or the degree of public order long familiar in large parts of Europe. No government today is in a position to overlook or eliminate internal armed minorities.
Yet the world is increasingly divided into states capable of administering their territories and citizens effectively and into a growing number of territories bounded by officially recognised international frontiers, with national governments ranging from the weak and corrupt to the non-existent. These zones produce bloody internal struggles and international conflicts, such as those we have seen in central Africa. There is, however, no immediate prospect for lasting improvement in such regions, and a further weakening of central government in unstable countries, or a further Balkanisation of the world map, would undoubtedly increase the dangers of armed conflict.
A tentative forecast: war in the 21st century is not likely to be as murderous as it was in the 20th. But armed violence, creating disproportionate suffering and loss, will remain omnipresent and endemic - occasionally epidemic - in a large part of the world. The prospect of a century of peace is remote.
Eric Hobsbawn is the author of Age of Extremes: a History of the World, 1914-1991. A longer version of this article appears in the London Review of Books.
While the historical points he makes regarding ever increasing percentage of civilian casualties in wars is a fact-- the reasons given for this and his projection that the 21st century will not be as murderous as the 20th have no basis in fact.
Civilians casualties greatly increased in WW II because of the arrival of big bombers with a big supply of big bombs. This trends will continue and it will get worse. The bombs are ever more deathly and some countries like the U.S. have a unlimited supply of them. Bombers flying at night, at high altitudes do not distinguish between civilians or military very well. Nor, do they really care to.
That' "The prospect of a century of peace is remote." is an absurd commentary. There is no prospect of any kind for peace. There is already a bunch of wars.