Unexpected gifts: Iran's regional influence has never been stronger

Iran is a well-endowed developing country that was once the centre of an empire and which has never lost its aspiration of becoming one again. Iran's power is based on its natural resources -- mostly oil -- its military strength and the high quality of its diplomacy which, compared to the rest of the region, can draw on a highly educated population. Such power is reflected in Persia's determination to remain a regional superpower.

But Iranian foreign policy has always been circumscribed by a very particular triangle. Iran, though it is a Muslim country, is Shia, i.e. it represents a minority, not a majority, of Muslims. It is also a non-Arab state in a predominantly Arab region. Thirdly, Iran is an eastern country, however much it dreams of joining the Western club. The three sides of the triangle, comprised of the factors just noted, constitute what I call the Persia trap.

Iranian foreign policy, understandably, is calculated to serve Iran's national interests. Throughout its modern history -- certainly from the end of World War I -- Iran's leaders have reacted to political events in a more or less consistent manner. When communist Russia was established in 1917, Iran sought to build alliances with opposing powers. After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, Great Britain emerged as its great ally, and the stage was set for Iran to modernise in a Western fashion. When British power was superseded by that of the US, the latter became Iran's closest ally. And when the Soviet Union collapsed, removing one of the principle threats to Iran's national security, Iran was presented with a golden opportunity to extend its sphere of influence well beyond its northern borders.

Westernised Iran maintained good relations with Israel and conservative powers in the Middle East. Its foreign policy was shaped by two factors after World War II; the threat of the Soviet influence and the threat of radical political movements, Nasserism in particular. The Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO), sponsored by the US and Britain, brought Iran together with Turkey and Pakistan in an attempt to guard against these perceived threats. To be effective, though, the treaty needed an Arab component. Iraq, under Nouri Al-Said, joined CENTO, though this was the spark that led to Abdul-Karim Qasim's military coup and the overthrow of the Hashemite king.

Iran withdrew from the treaty after the revolution in 1979. In order to turn its foreign policy away from Israel and to champion the cause of the liberation of Palestine Iran severed relations with Israel and turned the headquarters of the Israeli mission in Tehran into the PLO's representative office.

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http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2006/788/op32.htm