Silverman: Iraqi Electoral Law Passes but Dangers Loom

Silverman: Iraqi Electoral Law Passes but Dangers Loom

Adam L. Silverman writes in a guest op-ed for Informed Comment:

Politics and Politicking: Iraqi Elections, the Failure of Reconciliation, and the Consolidation of Power

Adam L. Silverman, PhD[1]

The politics surrounding Iraqs national election law is eerily reminiscent of the Faulkner quote that the past is never dead, it's not even past. While the Iraqi Parliament has finally passed an election law for the 2010 parliamentary (national) elections[2], the extended impasse over the measure[3] is a replay of the events that preceded the provincial elections in the late Summer and Fall of 2008. At that time Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, in conjunction with Vice President Adel Abdul Mahdi, vetoed the provincial election law.[4] The veto was issued concerning the status of Kirkuk, the city that was one of the major grievances between Iraqi Kurds and Arabs, as well as the proposed format for the elections. Tensions were so high that the Kurdistan Alliance actually walked out of parliament to prevent a vote, an action that failed and led to the veto.

The entire episode highlighted the unreconciled fault lines and cleavages between the various ethno-linguistic and ethno-religious factions in Iraq. The wrangling clearly demonstrated that Dawa, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and its Badr Corps paramilitary, and the Kurdistan Alliance were trying to consolidate and enhance control to pursue their own agendas.

The most recent holdup, the veto issued by Iraqi Vice President Tariq al Hashimi also centered around the fault lines of Kurdish versus Arab and Sunni versus Shia. Vice President al Hashimis veto appears to have been an attempt to preserve as much political representation, and consequent power, for the Sunni minority as possible. The opposition he and the Sunnis face, the Kurds and the Shia Arabs, seek to reallocate the representation to more fully reflect their own higher proportion of the Iraqi population.

The overall problem here, however, is that the Kurds and the Shia Arabs, as represented by the Kurdistan Alliance, Dawa, and ISCI, have demonstrated that their views of Iraq are clearly sometimes sectional rather than nationalist: they seek to either a partial or complete de facto secession (the Kurds and Kurdistan, ISCI and Southern Iraq) or--in the case of ISCI and to some extent Dawa-- they represent the interests of their Iranian benefactors. Moreover, by consolidating their power through the politics of the election law these parties and the movements they represent are deepening the divide between those that have power and those who are perpetually locked out of power.

Vice President al Hashemis November 8th veto and his subsequent threats to issue another veto if his demands for greater Sunni representation were not met created an impasse. The resolution of the stalemate allowed the Sunni minority to achieve slightly greater representation while also providing the Shia majority and the Kurds significant enough concessions that everyone could save face and the election could be scheduled.[5] The new election law does, however, push two important grievances farther down the road: talks to resolve the dispute between Arabs and Kurds over Kirkuk and oil and conducting a long overdue census both of which will supposedly happen next year. The real question that those interested in Iraq need to be focused on at this point is what will the effects of the election, as well as these two other problem sets, have on the fault lines between the various communities in Iraq?

As Nir Rosen has documented the Shia have won the dispute with the Sunnis.[6] The Shi'a have won the war for control of political power and resources. Although that dispute has been termed a Sunni/Shia Civil War, and has often been incorrectly seen as a purely religious and theological dispute, in fact the two parties sought to stake control of money, water, electrical power, oil, and political power.[7]

The issue, however, is how the Sunnis will respond to ever their ever diminishing influence over Iraq at a national, provincial, and local level. If PM Maliki and his Dawa Party continue to consolidate power in an attempt to further entrench themselves and secure their positions, the Sunnis are likely to respond in very negative ways, despite being heavily outnumbered. Moreover, many rural and more traditional Shia are not thrilled with the behavior of Dawa or the second most powerful Shia party ISCI. It is important to remember that Iraqis, both Sunni and Shia, know who escaped and lived in exile (the leaders of Dawa, ISCI, and the Badr Corps) and who did not. Moreover, they are incredibly sensitive to the idea that Iran is meddling in Iraqi affairs or unduly influencing Iraqi politics.

Many Sunnis, and even the more rural Shia, fear that Iranians will move in and dominate Iraq, or remake the demographic balance. Arab Iraqis are anxious that the Kurds will grab more land and then break away. These tensions will be played out in the elections. If the turnout is high even in Sunni-dominated areas, but Sunnis do not perceive that they have done well, their grievances over representation, resource allocation, and distribution will be inflamed. Similar outcomes will occur if the census is not handled correctly in both its conduct and in selling the idea to Iraqis who are rightfully distrustful of governmental activities, as well as the negotiations regarding Kirkuk and oil.

In order to give all three of these important initiatives a chance to bind up Iraqs wounds rather than make them worse, three things have to be done and all of the steps taken in this regard have to be very, very transparent.

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