Israel: Moderates at an impasse

The success of Israel's ultra right brings worse tidings than the collapse of the peace process. Israel's intransigence, compounded by two wars in Lebanon and Gaza, has divided the region and undermined the position of its moderates.

It would be an over- simplification to see the outcome of Israel's recent elections as a victory for the ultra right. The boundaries between the Israeli right and left have been eroding steadily since 2000. Yet the rise of Israel's far right has dealt another blow to the achievement of a peaceful settlement. Any hopes that may have been revived by the advent of a moderate US administration are now meaningless. The region is now teetering on the verge of disaster for a war involving Israel and Iran would undermine whatever stability the region has left.

The rise of Israel's right seems to complete the circle Sharon started a few years back. What Sharon did was remarkable by any standards. He managed to toss aside any chances of peace while at the same time radicalising the Palestinians. Since then the Arab scene has changed steadily, with radicals gaining on moderates every step of the way. The regional equilibrium between the Arabs and Israel has shifted, and Israel no longer seems interested in peace. Rather than have peace with the Arabs, why not have a war with Iran?

Arabs and the Palestinians have every right to claim they don't have an Israeli partner in peace. But when was the last time they had one? With the Palestinians divided and isolated the peace option seems to be increasingly a thing of the past. We are back to square one, more specifically to May 1996 when Benyamin Netanyahu first came to power, edging ahead of Labour by a margin of 0.5 per cent.

The Americans had hoped Peres would win, if only to salvage the Oslo process from a sad fate. But the real loser in those elections was former president Bill Clinton who had been hoping for an end of the Arab-Israeli conflict before leaving the White House. In a recent book Martin Indyk, former US ambassador to Israel, says that Netanyahu's victory was Clinton's worst dream come true.

Ironically, whenever a moderate US government comes to power Israel's ultra right manages to make it look inept while radicalising the Palestinians with extraordinary deftness. Obama will not be able to move ahead with peace. The new administration is likely to spend less time as peace broker than keeping Iran from being drawn into war. Should Iran's right wing win the June 2009 elections things will get even murkier. The US would then have to forget about the Palestinians and focus on Iran.

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