Lebanon's rough ride toward 'normal' politics

Patriarch warns of 'hidden powers'
By Maroun Khoury
Daily Star correspondent
Thursday, January 31, 2008

BKIRKI: Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir on Wednesday urged the Lebanese to unite, saying that "hidden powers are working on stirring chaos in Lebanon." "There are hands working to fragmentize the country and all its institutions, including the presidency, the government and Parliament," Sfeir told a delegation from the Federation of Iqlim al-Kharroub Municipalities that visited him in Bkirki.

"There are those who are also working to divide the Lebanese Army as well as religious institutions," the patriarch added. Sfeir also received a visit from a delegation from the Doctors for Peace Association on Wednesday.

Sfeir urged the Lebanese to unite as only the people could "rescue" the nation. He said Lebanon's 18 sects should "consort" and "cooperate" so that the country could live in peace.

His comments came after nine people were killed in protests in the Shiyyah district of Beirut's southern suburbs on Sunday. The demonstration against power cuts quickly degenerated into street violence despite the army's attempts to contain the riots.

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Wednesday, January 30, 2008 : The Union for Lebanon said on Wednesday that the power vacuum and social instability in Lebanon "are the main reasons behind the shaky security situation and violence in Lebanon." The union also condemned attacks on the Lebanese Army "as well as attacks on civilians who are witnessing extremely harsh living conditions."

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Wednesday, January 30, 2008 : The tragic and senseless killing of demonstrators in Shiyyah last Sunday was, perhaps rightfully, seen as the opening shot in a new phase of the Lebanese crisis that may turn much more violent. Who was responsible for the crimes still remains unclear. But a cooler analysis of what took place shows an equally disturbing reality:

Sunday was a political disaster for the Shiite opposition parties, Hizbullah and Amal, whose inability to achieve their political ends, but also to retreat from the brink, makes the likelihood of further hostilities much greater.

After the end of the summer 2006 war and the growing confrontation between the parliamentary majority and the opposition, Hizbullah was always careful to place non-Shiites in the forefront of the opposition's actions. While Sunni representatives were anemic, Michel Aoun was, for a time, someone who added credibility to the claim that the opposition was multiconfessional. That argument took a severe beating in the street protests of January 23, 2007, when the Aounists were unable to block roads for very long in Christian areas without assistance from the army. By nightfall, even that endeavor had collapsed as roads inside the Christian heartland and between Beirut and Tripoli were opened.

However, Aoun struck back in the Metn by-election last summer, when he managed to get an unknown, Camille Khoury, elected to Parliament. It was a pyrrhic victory to be sure. The vote tally confirmed that the general had lost a sizable share of the Maronite vote; it showed that he relied heavily on a unified Armenian electorate not particularly committed to the general personally, that might vote very differently in the future; but it also showed that Aoun was not out of the game, as some had predicted.

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