Is Obamamania Putting Gay Marriage at Risk?

But others are wondering if so many California activists are focused on Obama that there is less energy and money left to defeat Prop 8. Given how many activists are spending weekends either in Nevada or calling Florida for Obama, the perception that this could result in Prop 8’s passage is understandable. But perception is not reality, and Prop 8 is unlikely to win. Voter fixation on the presidential race and economic crisis has left many to ignore state and local propositions, so that an early October poll is equivalent to September numbers in a normal year. Prop 8 still has not reached the 50% mark that initiatives need to win, and so long as activists do not get complacent, the measure will lose handily.

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