Did the Lebanese army shoot the eight dead? It appears that soldiers may have shot one of them by accident. But since one of the victims was the Amal militia's liaison officer with the national army, it seems unlikely that soldiers would have opened fire on him. Were there Christian snipers east of Mar Mikael? Soldiers certainly shot at snipers in the darkness around the Maronite church as bullets crackled around them.

Hizbollah – at least five of the dead appeared to be its supporters – made statements which half-blamed the national army for "firing indiscriminately on the demonstrators", even calling on the army to "disclose the criminal element which killed innocent civilians". But since the largest community represented in the Lebanese army are Shia, the idea that they would fire on their own co-religionists seems a little far-fetched. In the ugly sectarian riots a year ago, even when gunmen appeared on the streets, the army killed not a single Lebanese.

So what are we to learn of this new and frightening violence in Beirut? The first, grim lesson is that there were hundreds of "civilians" on the streets around Mar Mikael – Christians and Muslims alike – carrying weapons. Everyone knows that Beirutis kept their civil war weapons.

Indeed, I was trying to recall a few days ago if I knew anyone (apart from me) who doesn't keep a gun in their home; I could think of only four people. But to see them on the streets, carrying firearms, showed just how close we are to the edge of the volcano. The second and perhaps more disturbing lesson is that the incidents of violence in Beirut are growing closer together. A bomb every two months – a street battle every six months – may be sustainable.

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