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Election Predictions, November 2006
Despite political polls, correctly predicting election results is not easy. On the eve of the Republican’s 1994 national sweep, few predicted that Democrats would lose the House, and most foresaw only slight Republican gains. Nor could anyone predicting Democrats’ electoral disaster nationally and in California (where Republicans won control of the Assembly) foresee that San Francisco’s 1994 election would be the most progressive in history. Tom Ammiano was first elected to the Board of Supervisors, ballot measures brought small owner-occupied buildings under rent control and created a new city agency to handle housing code enforcement, and the only Republican Supervisor (a mayoral appointee) was defeated. Based on a combination of polls, reading, conversations with those involved in campaigns and my own crystal ball, here are my predictions for national, state and local outcomes on November 7.
Nationally
If you examine the consensus poll numbers for the 2004 national elections, they were pretty close to the final outcomes. For 2006, virtually every sampling of the mood of the electorate shows that Democrats will easily win the House and likely win the Senate.
The crucial factor separating a big win from an electoral landslide is voter turnout. The reason polls missed the 1994 Republican tidal wave is that they failed to anticipate lower than expected Democratic turnout. Democrats also failed to turn out as expected in 2002, but then voted in record numbers in 2004.
In New York, Democrats will win the Governor and Senate races by at least thirty points, and these non-competitive races will likely reduce Republican turnout in the upstate races where Democrats are hoping to take congressional seats. In Connecticut, Ned Lamont’s field campaign will boost turnout among infrequent Democratic voters, and likely cost the Republicans two if not three congressional seats.
Pennsylvania also has uncompetitive Senate and Governor’s races (Incumbent Republican Senator Rick Santorum is double digits behind Democrat Bob Casey despite spending over $12 million), along with two badly damaged Republican congressional incumbents (one paid his mistress $500,000 to keep quiet until after Nov. 7, the other is under FBI investigation for steering government contracts to his daughter). This is another state where Democratic voter motivation is higher, and will bring the Party at least two new House seats.
More
http://beyondchron.org/news/index.php?itemid=3872#more
If you examine the consensus poll numbers for the 2004 national elections, they were pretty close to the final outcomes. For 2006, virtually every sampling of the mood of the electorate shows that Democrats will easily win the House and likely win the Senate.
The crucial factor separating a big win from an electoral landslide is voter turnout. The reason polls missed the 1994 Republican tidal wave is that they failed to anticipate lower than expected Democratic turnout. Democrats also failed to turn out as expected in 2002, but then voted in record numbers in 2004.
In New York, Democrats will win the Governor and Senate races by at least thirty points, and these non-competitive races will likely reduce Republican turnout in the upstate races where Democrats are hoping to take congressional seats. In Connecticut, Ned Lamont’s field campaign will boost turnout among infrequent Democratic voters, and likely cost the Republicans two if not three congressional seats.
Pennsylvania also has uncompetitive Senate and Governor’s races (Incumbent Republican Senator Rick Santorum is double digits behind Democrat Bob Casey despite spending over $12 million), along with two badly damaged Republican congressional incumbents (one paid his mistress $500,000 to keep quiet until after Nov. 7, the other is under FBI investigation for steering government contracts to his daughter). This is another state where Democratic voter motivation is higher, and will bring the Party at least two new House seats.
More
http://beyondchron.org/news/index.php?itemid=3872#more
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