Inside 1701: What the UN Security Council's Ceasefire Resolution Actually Says

What is really portended by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which set the terms for the present ceasefire in Lebanon? The very fact that it was signed at all might be encouraging, but no one is sure what its actual impact will be and most are sceptical. For Israel, will it secure the outcome its leaders are (rather desperately) claiming they have gained by this dreadful war - i.e., ultimate disarmament of Hizbullah? For Lebanon and Hizbullah, will it secure Israel's withdrawal? Either way, will it last?

More important than its precise provisions are facts on the ground. On one side, Hizbullah is "victorious" in defeating Israel's military ambitions, but much of Lebanon itself is in ruins; peace for a traumatized population is a matter of urgency. On the other side, the Israeli military is chastened and Jewish Israel is shocked; more fruitless loss of soldiers' lives has become political anathema. These factors may cause the guns to stay silent where the resolution itself could not.

But a close look at Resolution 1701 is still important because it says a great deal about the politics of the moment. In practice, any Security Council (SC) resolution is only as effective in attaining its goals as the collective political will and capacity of its veto-wielding members allow it to be. Some resolutions reflect more consensus than others. Many confront limitations of the SC to enforce them. Brooding divisions and chicanery within the SC can instill loopholes or debilitating contradictions.

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