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Dell Inc., Intel, Microsoft -- all will go down with Moore's Law
by Kurt Kress
Thursday May 18th, 2006 3:18 PM
Dell, Intel, and Microsoft stocks are in freefall. (Dell is getting a dead-cat bounce today on AMD news.) Like the last Tech Wreck (in 2000), this one has to do with Moore's Law. Moore's Law is a self-fulfilling prophecy financed by Intel, his company, as long as they can afford it.
moore__sl_small.jpglsjprm.jpg
moore__sl_small.jpglsjprm...

Transistors-per-chip growth (Moore's First Law) is ending (soon, see graph), and it could be very bad for the economy. The good news is that Gordon Moore's Second Law is finally coming into effect. This "forgotten" part of his famous article was about "handy" "sale"-priced computers (see his cartoon).

The end of periodic transistor-per-chip doubling (First Law, see graph) could be as bad for Silicon Valley and companies like Intel, Microsoft, and Dell as Peak Oil is for Detroit, GM, and Ford. As for Gordon Moore's Second Law, which presaged the $150 computer you see here, I'll bet even he, the founder of Intel, doesn't want you to know about it. I know Bill Gates has criticized the idea. "They" want the super-cheap computer to be a secret, or just for the Chinese, but it is "exposed" (shown) below.

A whistleblower in the computer industry has written an article on all this. It is long, but the "sound" bites below give you the gist of it.


Sound Bites from Article
"End of Moore's Law -- $100 Computer coming, to U.S. too."
by Clayton Hallmark

"The end of Moore's Law looms as little $100-200 commodity PC appear in Asia. Soon they will be everywhere."

"Watch the news on Intel and Dell. Especially watch for postponements (all kinds) and spending cuts. Then you'll know the end of Moore's law is near."

"With commoditization, computing has outgrown Microsoft's 'patent pool' just as radio once did Hazeltine's."

"Intel has bought and paid for its founder's (Moore's) law, making it a self-fulfilling, self-serving prophecy. They can't afford it much longer."

"A Chinese can buy a $150 computer -- but you can't. (Refers to the Longmeng.)"

"The high-end niche of IBM is the safest part of US computing -- safest from Asian commodity products."

"Many in American computer manufacturing need to switch to providing services. You can't fight commoditization."

"Future US leadership in computing will be based on things like writing algorithms to create businesses (like Google) and solving big problems in the many fields where he US has grad school leadership."

"In the 'Yankee tinkerer' tradition, the US will invent new products, manufacture them until commoditization, and then control the marketing. The US can lead in computing for a long time."

"Shrinking transistors start behaving like the old thermionic tubes. Thermionic emission: physically, that's what will stop Moore's Law."

"Smaller-cheaper, or miniaturization-commoditization, has always been the Electronics Way, especially the commoditization part. People forget that."

"Commoditization -- cheap computers, almost as disposable, nondescript, and plentiful as transistor radios -- will take over first at the bottom of the computer food chain, at the home PC."

"Bill Gates will NEVER spend Microsoft's $60-billion cash hoard. He would downsize the company first."

"Commoditization of computers will spread from the home up through servers and corporate IT. For the foreseeable future, commoditization will replace technological progress of all kinds as the newsmaker in computing. Smaller-cheaper will be the visible aspect of commoditization."

"Look at the End-of-Moore's-Law chart. The M.L. slowdown before the year 2000 coincided with the Tech Wreck in the stock market. Think about what the end of M.L. will mean."

"PC history is about Intel's (Moore's) Law and Microsoft's lawlessness."

"$100-$200 computers are not just for developing countries, as Nicholas Negroponte of the MIT Media Lab thinks. 'How you gonna keep 'em down on the farm' in China once the American consumer sees them?" (Nick is the brother of US spy chief John.)

"Moore's Law's J-curve (showing doubling of transistors on a chip every year or two) will start looking like an S-curve next year (2007), starting to level out on top."

"It's so obvious. Moore predicted this also: Computers will go the way of transistor radios -- book size or less, disposable, anywhere use (ubiquitous). Their processor performance will be secondary. They will be made in Asia, not by Dell, with lots of hand labor. Commoditization."

"There are crazy people running around to conferences telling people we will have PCs with the computing power of the human brain. (Oh, no. The "electronic brain" is back. Does it meet the Turing human-impersonator test yet?) Personally, I have a hard time matching wits with the electronics on a new car, even though I once wrote a book about it."

"Cheap computers mean cheap, or free, software."

"Capital-spending cuts by Intel suggest Moore's Law is ending."

"Intel could chase the shrinking transistor to the vanishing point, of profits. But they won't."

"An under-$150 computer with DVD -- without Microsoft or Intel -- is available in 2006 in China (the Longmeng). Woe are Intel, Microsoft, and Dell."

"The transistor can't shrink many more years. What follows (spintronics, photonics, quantum devices) will not be electronic, not faster, not cheaper, and definitely not Moore's Law."

"Miniaturization has driven progress in electronics since radios were scaled down (and called 'midgets') for strapped consumers in the Great Depression of the 1930s."

"In electronics, the emphasis on smaller-cheaper will reappear for computers."

"With notebooks now where the action is, there's less reason for continuing with Moore's Law and pushing more performance."

"Some don't want to admit this (no need for much more speed), and no one wants to admit to being an 'average' computer user."

"What I need is a small-cheap computer to carry on my infinite-gas-mileage bicycle. Then I can just throw it away if I break it."

"In the future, computer performance will be sacrificed for portability and power savings."

"I would like to see a portable doesn't need recharging, that uses flashlight batteries or solar cells."

"In a world of shrinking resources and growing demand, products get made smaller and cheaper."

"Increased air-freight costs (jet fuel, you know) will hurt JIT (just in time) makers and sellers of "special," "latest thing" computers and thus will stimulate commoditization (generic, slowly improving PCs)."

"Commodity computers have time to 'take a slow boat from China' and avoid air-freight costs."

"Computer makers should preload free software for 99 percent of uses."

"A $100 computer will be a long time coming as long as a $70 operating system is involved."

"Microsoft is a publishing company that patents what should be copyrighted."

"In Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, etc., ignoring monopoly patents is not piracy. They must protect their 'infant industries' as we once did."

"Is piracy even possible against a monopoly?"

"Hardware trumps software -- economically, legally. Remember the VCR wars between Hollywood (publishers) and VCR makers (hardware)? Hardware won."

"It is hard to tell people how to use things (VCRs, computers) in the privacy of their own homes. 'Anticircumvention' laws are bound to fail."

"Software prices have declined hardly at all since computers became transistorized. Smaller-cheaper (commoditization) will change that."

"Diehr (the court ruling allowing software patents) makes computers 'dear.' India's Parliament prevents such rulings there."

"Microsoft's monopoly is enforced by 7000 minor patents. Can you name one? A company called Hazeltine once did the same thing with radios. Who remembers THEM now?"

"Microsoft is a 'patent troll.' "

"Harness the promise of technology without becoming slaves to technology." (President George W. Bush) "End slavery to Microsoft and Intel." (Me)

---------------------------------------------

HERE'S MORE, GETTING INTO SOME OF THE DETAILS


"Moore's Law is just an example of the S-curve of natural growth that comes from biology (rabbit population growth)."

"Moore's Law of transistor doubling follows an S-curve, not a J-curve ever-upward as most think. There are only so many rabbits (new materials, new fab processes) Intel can pull out of its hat to overcome obstacles to Moore's Law."

"The hardest thing to forecast about technology is how people will use it. However, Moore's paper (see cartoon) did also predict palm-sized, handy, super-cheap computers as a result of integrated circuits. Most people don't remember that part."

"It's products (computers, etc.) that need to be miniaturized further, not transistors."

"We need cheaper, not better."

"Future computer progress will come not from the likes of Intel but from computer makers, in Asia."

"Hedonic pricing (performance-adjusted pricing) is a 'cheapening trick.' "

"Moore's Law is not just about max transistors on a chip -- but MINIMUM COST PER TRANSISTOR FOR THE OEM (at the motherboard level). It's economics as well as science."

"Shrinking transistors start behaving like the old thermionic tubes. Thermionic emission: physically, that's what will stop Moore's Law."

"Future logic devices won't be faster or cheaper than CMOS (transistors) and might not even be general-purpose."

"The baton for PC progress is passing from the component makers like Intel to equipment makers (OEMs) -- in Asia."

"The first microcessor was made by Americans, for Japanese, to make smaller-cheaper calculators. Then Japanese manufacturers took over calculators."

"All we are waiting for is a manufacturer in Asia to make a $100 computer. (We're close.)"

"Computers have gotten cheaper as their guts have followed Moore's Law and their manufacture has followed other gadgets to Asia."

"First the parts business goes (to Asia), then the completed product (radio, television, computer)."

"Microsoft merely replaced Kildall's DOS with Windows copied from Xerox and Apple."

"'To promote the progress of science and useful arts....' (U.S. Constitution, on intellectual property.) Have Microsoft patents done that?"

"Could gunboat diplomacy assert Microsoft's rights against Asian 'pirates'?"

"Who are the real pirates in computing?"

WHAT IS THE POINT OF ALL THIS?

Electronics industry trends emulate natural laws like the conservation of energy and matter, also natural growth. Computers, like radios before them, get smaller and cheaper, using less material in their manufacture and less energy in operation. The density of transistors follows an S-curve of natural growth, and the Moore's Law phase of that is ending.

As computers become commodities, and as brands and higher performance become less important, computer manufacturing moves to ever-cheaper labor markets in Asia.

The miniaturization of transistors (per Moore's Law) for improved performance becomes less important than miniaturization of the computers themselves for lower cost. Hedonic pricing (lower price for a given level of performance) is replaced by lower absolute prices.

In sum, the end of Moore's law looms as little commodity PCs ($100-$200) start to arrive from Asia. Soon they will appear everywhere.
§Cartoon from Moore\'s Famous Article about His Law
by Kurt Kress Thursday May 18th, 2006 3:18 PM
moore__s_second_law_cartoon.jpgqt5duq.jpg
moore__s_second_law_carto...

Moore's article in which he stated his law really was about Commoditization of Computers. Super-cheap computers, $100 or so, can kill his company, Intel, Microsoft, and, especially, Dell Inc.
by Clayton Hallmark
Monday Aug 7th, 2006 12:19 AM
home.earthlink.net/~moores-law/
by R. Prechter
Wednesday Aug 9th, 2006 12:21 AM
The complete site for The End of Moore's Law has more illustrations and is better written than this. Check it out.
by Tom Ryun
Tuesday Sep 19th, 2006 12:28 PM
end_of_moores_law_growth_curves.jpg
end_of_moores_law_growth_...

The graphs compare the exponential that Moore's Law describes versus the real trend of transistor doubling -- the S-curve on the right.
by repost from KGO-TV
Tuesday Sep 19th, 2006 12:56 PM
Intel's Hybrid Silicon Laser Chip
KGO By David Louie

Sep. 18 - KGO - Some big news from Silicon Valley of a breakthrough in technology. A major hurdle has been removed that will significantly speed up chips to download digital content, such as movies. ABC7's David Louie has been in the Intel lab where the drive to discover faster computing speed has been underway.
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Intel engineers have been working on this project in this lab for five years. They've been trying to put laser beams inside a computer chip to speed up how much data it can process. They've been focusing on laser beams because they don't create noise or interference the way copper wires do.

Victor Krutul, M.S., M.B.A, Intel Silicon Photonics Strategy Director: "With optical, you don't have this problem. Photons, light beams, don't interact with each other. Therefore, not only can we send the data much further, we can send it at much faster, much higher bandwidth."

This tiny die or strip contains 36 lasers. The challenge was bonding that set of lasers onto a chip to allow the silicon to process data. The laser beams act as the data highway.

Mario Paniccia, Silicon Photonics Research Director: "Here we've taken these two materials separately, and through a unique process that was developed at the University of California Santa Barbara, with a low-temperature, plasma-enhanced, oxidation process, we've been able to bond these two materials, and the sum of that bond created this hybrid silicon laser."

There is a push for faster speed because of the advent of digital entertainment. We're already downloading music and video to our home computers.

Apple last week announced consumers can download movies. But the download process can take two hours or longer, even with a DSL or cable high-speed connection.

Digital media today also is compressed to make the data files smaller. That can compromise quality.

Victor Krutul: "In the future, you won't need to do compression and decompression because you'll have all the bandwidth you really need to transmit large amounts of data, real-time movies, maybe even download a couple of movies to watch over the weekend, and do this in a couple of seconds."

Think of that. A full-length movie in a couple of seconds.

The process of making this new kind of chip is not going to be complicated. It can be done using the same fabrication plans turning out today's chips.

Intel says the hybrid silicon laser chip can process one trillion bytes per second. Dozens, even hundreds of lasers, can be put on a single chip, further increasing its speed.

The initial users of the hybrid chip will be servers -- the gateways that put digital content onto the Internet. Engineers say personal computers won't be far behind, opening up a whole new way for consumers to get media faster than we can imagine.

Copyright 2006, ABC7/KGO-TV/DT.
by Clayton Hallmark
( hallmark_cl at earthlink.net ) Wednesday Sep 20th, 2006 2:29 PM
end_of_moores_law_growth_curves.jpg
end_of_moores_law_growth_...

http://home.earthlink.net/~moores-law/

For more details, go to the complete article on End of Moore's Law

Also, the illustrations I am am adding with this comment explain some of the things above.

Clayton Hallmark
September 20, 2006
by K. Kress
Saturday Sep 30th, 2006 1:01 PM
end_of_moores_law_oldradio.jpg
end_of_moores_law_oldradi...

Radios once were expensive and complex to use (see photos). They became simple to use, then with transistors, cheap. Now you can buy a disposable one for a buck.

PCs are heading for $200 -- AVERAGE price (more details at ttp://home.earthlink.net/~moores-law/ ):

$743 - July 2004

$644 - July 2005

$550 - June 2006

For the future of computing and Moore's Law, you might want to visit the above link also.

Note: This is a WTO/world-trade issue. Multinational corporation-states will do all they can to oppose this unstoppable trend.

Kurt

by K. Kress
Saturday Sep 30th, 2006 1:06 PM
end_of_moores_law_tr-1set.jpg
end_of_moores_law_tr-1set...

See how electronics changed in 30 years? This was before Moore's Law.

Real laws (not Moore's non-law) were working then, and they still are -- for PCs.

If you remember one word of this, remember: "commoditization."

The artilce on commoditization of computers and natural growth versus Moore's Law is at the URL above.