Bolivia After the Election of Evo Morales: What Way Next?

On Dec. 18, 2005, Evo Morales, the indigenous peasant leader of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS), won the Bolivian presidential elections by an unexpectedly large margin, receiving 54% of the votes. The runner up, right-winger “Tuto” Quiroga, received less than 29% of the votes.

This stunning victory for Morales -- in the 2002 elections he received only 20.9% of the votes -- is an expression of the massive revolutionary movement that has rocked the Bolivian nation during the last three years in its struggle for the nationalization of the oil and gas resources.

Hopes are high in Bolivia and around the world that Morales -- the country’s first president of indigenous descent, who has self-proclaimed himself “America’s worst nightmare” -- will break Bolivia, South America’ poorest country, out of its dire situation of near-starvation and subordination.

Morales’ victory has created tremendous expectations in the new government. For many workers, peasants, and students, the new government is seen as “our government.” Their vote for Morales was a vote against the corrupt bourgeois parties and the subordination of Bolivia to foreign interests. It was a vote for the nationalization of the oil and gas, a vote for fundamental change.

Caught Between Two Fires

But the new Morales government will be caught between two fires from the moment it takes office on Jan. 22, 2006. On the one hand, it faces immense pressure from U.S. imperialism to protect the considerable foreign economic interests in Bolivia -- particularly the “inalienable right” of the multinational oil corporations to dominate and pillage the country.

The U.S. government is using the threat of a possible military intervention in Bolivia to ensure that Morales doesn’t break with the status-quo. As the newspaper El Diario reported on Dec. 17, 2005: “At the beginning of 2006, when the new government of president-elect Evo Morales takes power, special U.S. troops will march to the border between Paraguay and Bolivia to begin a series of counter-insurgency exercises.”

But a military intervention is only “Plan B” for the U.S. government. From its perspective, the ideal situation would be for Morales to act as a “Bolivian Lula” who uses his left-wing prestige -- as Brazilian President Luis Inacio “Lula” da Silva has done -- to contain and demobilize the mass movement and implement all the reactionary austerity measures that the traditional bourgeois parties could not push through.

On the other hand, Morales will face a powerful and radicalized popular movement which has overthrown two presidents in less than three years -- a movement, moreover, which Morales does not control and which has not at all given the new government a blank check.
The burning question is thus: Will Morales respond to the demands of the U.S. government or those of the Bolivian people?

Nationalization or Renegotiation of the Contracts?

The principal demand of the mass insurrections of October 2003 was “Nationalization, without Compensation, of the Oil and Gas!” This is a demand for Bolivia’s sovereignty over its abundant natural resources. Bolivia has more than 53 trillion cubic feet in natural gas reserves -- resources that were sold off through privatizations in the 1990s.

The demand for nationalization is so incredibly popular that all the presidential candidates, from the left to the right, in this electoral campaign were obliged to say they were in favor of “nationalization” -- though each of them gave a different content to this word.
Morales has made it clear that his “nationalization” plans will not infringe on the assets of the corporations.

The day after his election, Evo Morales announced: “We will respect property rights; our government will be dedicated to respecting the law” (El Diario, Dec. 20). One week later, Morales declared: “I don’t want to harm anybody. I don’t want to expropriate or confiscate anything.” (Econotocias.com, Dec. 28)

Evo Morales was elected primarily on his promises to nationalize the oil and gas resources. Now the new government has reduced this pledge to a call to renegotiate the economic contracts with the energy corporations.

Response from Workers’ Movement

The workers’ movement, not surprisingly, has responded differently to Morales’ statements on the hydrocarbons. The National Summit of Workers and Peoples, a representative gathering of labor and social movement activists, gave the new president 90 days to nationalize the hydrocarbons without indemnities. The Summit met on Dec. 8-10, 2005 in the city of El Alto at the initiative of the country’s main labor organizations: the Bolivian Workers Federation (COB), the Miners’ Federation (FSTMB) and the Regional Workers Federation of El Alto (COR-El Alto).

The Summit’s Final Declaration stated that if the government failed to take action on nationalizations in the allotted time, mass mobilizations would begin again in April 2006.
Jaime Solares, the current general secretary of the Bolivian Workers Federation (COB), declared in the immediate aftermath of the elections: “Nationalization, without compensation, is a political act that does not require consultation with Brazil or the United States of America. … We don’t want them [Evo Morales and the MAS - Ed. Note] to tell us they need two or three years to implement this demand. During this time, the multinationals are going to continue making millions of dollars while the majority of our people continue to starve. We are not going to allow this.” (El Diario, Dec. 20)

“Autonomies” or Unity of the Nation?

With the ascent of the mass movement for the nationalization of the hydrocarbons, the semi-fascist oligarchy of Santa Cruz -- a resource-rich region in eastern Bolivia that sits on most of the newly discovered natural gas reserves -- has raised, with full U.S. support and funds, the demand for its political, social, and economic “autonomy” from the rest of Bolivia.
But what is the position of Morales? In his meeting with the business and political leaders of Santa Cruz on Dec. 27, he was unequivocal: “We are going to guarantee your autonomy,” he said. “It is necessary to recognize that Santa Cruz has been the vanguard spreading consciousness about this theme. … “ (Bolpress, Dec. 28)

This autonomy/secession demand stems from U.S. imperialism’s strategy to divide and dismantle nations throughout the world (e.g., Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, and Iraq) in its drive to ensure super-profits. Thus, the National Summit of Workers and Peoples, in its Final Declaration, called for “the intransigent defense of the unity of the nation and the struggle against the divisive maneuvers of the oligarchy of Santa Cruz and Tarija, under the pretext of autonomy.”

Morales and the Workers’ Movement

For the workers, the unemployed, the youth, and the peasants -- all of whom catapulted Evo Morales into office -- the presidential results are perceived as a great victory. But now the workers’ and popular movements are faced with new and formidable challenges.
The workers and their organizations will face immense pressures to give up their class independence. The pressure will be most intense upon the COB, the Miners’ Federation, and the COR -- all organizations that have been in the forefront of the mass mobilizations over the past three years.

Evo Morales’ vice presidential running mate, Alvaro García Linera, argues that “Andean capitalism” is the solution for Bolivia. He and Morales are shining stars of the “alter-globalization” movement and the World Social Forums in their capacity as spokespersons for the “indigenista” cause.

The Bolivian Miners Federation has explained that such “indigenista” rhetoric does not serve the interests of the Quechua and Aymara majority of the Bolivian population. They write:
Evo Morales and García Linera already have begun an ideological offensive against the concept of class struggle and, thus, the necessity for the existence of independent workers’ organizations.

In a post-election interview with the BBC, García Linera was asked, “Are you scared that you won’t be able to fulfil the expectations of the most radical left in Bolivia?” He answered with a controversial provocation against the Bolivian workers’ organizations, stating:
“There is a dying pseudo-Marxist left from the 1950s and 1970s which is already a ghost. They have never participated, or been decisive sectors, in the recent mobilizations. There is a new indigenous left -- which is something new -- that doesn’t share the principles, political recipe-books, or conservative pseudo-radicalism of the 1950s, ‘60s, and ‘70s. … Thus, I would speak of confrontation between the last vestiges of an old pseudo-Marxist left and an emerging and vigorous indigenous left.” (El Diario, Dec. 22)

What Way Forward?

In addition to this ideological offensive meant to divide the movement and discredit the workers’ organizations, Evo Morales is seeking to co-opt the workers’ and popular organizations into the new government by offering them cabinet posts.
Offers to participate in the new administration already have been made to the peasant federations, the COB, the Miners’ Federation, the COR-El Alto, and the Federation of Neighborhood Councils (FEJUVE) of El Alto. So far only the Miners’ Federation has categorically rejected the offer.

The proposal to form an independent workers’ party was raised by the COB and has been championed by various sectors, particularly the mineworkers. The need for such a workers’ party also was highlighted in the Final Declaration adopted by the National Workers and Popular Summit in El Alto.

If the revolutionary mobilizations of the Bolivian masses are not to be taken back into safe channels for imperialism, it is imperative that the working class organizations that spearheaded the mass uprisings of October 2003 and May-June 2005 not relent in the struggle to win the central demands around which the workers and people have mobilized these past three years.

To this end, sectors of the Bolivian labor movement, including La Chispa -- the sympathizing group of the Fourth International in Bolivia -- are calling on the main workers’ organizations -- the COB, the Miners’ Federation (FSTMB) and the COR -- to launch an Open Letter to Evo Morales that would state their demands for progress towards nationalization and bolivian unity.

Last December, just prior to the national election, the National Workers and Popular Summit, issued a call to organize Local and Regional Popular...