5am, Caracas.
Under a heavy rain, Chavez is on his balcony giving a rousing victory speech
to packed streets. "You have given me a rain of love." After a long, long
night when voting went past midnight and rumors ran (straight from within
the Carter Center) of a defeat, the numbers are in, and as Chavez says: "we
have begun another stage in the Bolivarian Revolution." No violence, no
tampering, just a clean strong victory for Chavez and el pueblo: 58% to 42%.
"the voice of the people has spoken, and the voice of the people is the
voice of god."

Much more later from the victory parties, and from the esqualido
(weak/squalid) neighborhoods of the defeated elite. Chavez is calling for a
united country and healing with the opposition, but frankly he's being too
nice. His re-election in Nov. 2006 looks definite, giving us Chavez until
at least 2013...

"A big ball just fell in the middle of the White House. A gift for Bush! We
hope that we taught the US a lesson in democracy and that from now on they
respect the government and the people of Venezuela."

But now, like some surreal rerun of a bad movie, the private channels are
switching to the opposition press conference claiming that the National
Electoral Council, which announced the results with the full support of the
Carter Center and the very conservative OAS, has commited fraud and stolen
the election. I rode around with conservative members of the Carter Center
until late at night, counting votes and checking machines, and they called
it a completey free and clean election. Enough. It's time for the
international community and press to call the opposition what they are: a
corrupt minority trying to institute another coup. The fireworks are
beginning to rain down from the hills, and the cavalry music can be heard
all the way in the esqualidos.

quedo, quedo, quedo, quedo......queedo, el comandante quedo.
he's staying.
**********************************************************************
a hurried update from here. feel free to forward to friends if you want... but no names...

I was going to forward some of the many articles flowing out of caracas this
week from the US press, but I’m finally fed up with them. Even more so now
that I know them personally. Most of these correspondents are trying to be
fair, and they’re really nice people. But while their articles will give
you some who’s, when’s, and what’s, they will only distract you from the
why’s. Please, if you read any more about Latin America in the Nytimes and
elsewhere just picture them writing from the roof of the Marriot, trying to
see the barrios with a pair of binoculars, receiving calls from the US
embassy with one phone and ordering room service with the other.

I also wanted to give a long review of what I’ve seen this week—from the
barrios to the opposition march to Chavez grabbing me on the shoulder--but
there isn’t time. We’re at the moment of truth here, so I will go straight
to the “nut graph” as these correspondents like to say, and leave the
flowery narrative about the last few days till later. You will have to take
me at my word regarding the state of things and allow me to give the
evidence and background at a later date.

Caracas is surprisingly calm, but the bars are closed and the suspense is
very real: no one knows what’s going to happen starting tomorrow. Orderly
election; stable government; civil war; military coup; run-off election;
another counter-coup from the barrios??
(Chavez needs to win more than 50% to stay. If he loses there will be new
Presidential elections in a month and he will probably be allowed to run.)

Chavistas believe it’s decided—that there is no way they lose unless the
referendum is stolen, and the polls seem to back them up (even Juan Forero
of the NYTimes said “it’s over”). In the elite neighborhoods of Caracas,
the opposition is just as convinced they will win, and on Thursday backed it
up with a massive, spirited march the likes of which I have never seen.
Neither side believes it can lose a fair election. There could be fraud or
it could be, as Jimmy Carter said: “fairer than Florida.” There could be
serious violence as the press warns, or there could be complete calm as
Chavez promises. But one thing is clear to me: Chavez isn’t going anywhere.
No independent person believes the opposition could win a new presidential
election in September. And, in the end, the Chavistas--at least half of this
country, overwhelming poor people of color--aren’t going to let him go
anywhere. There’s a conviction in their voices and eyes which is
unmistakeable. If April, 2002 didn’t convince you, they will do it again, or
there will be war. The intensity of their commitment to the “Bolivarian
Revolution” and the level of organization in the barrios is scary.

But, as (xxxxxx xxxxxxxx) keeps reminding me, it’s been in the bag before and
some big guys have stepped in. In 1990 Nicaragua, polls predicted a big
victory for the Sandanistas. After groups like the Carter Center, OAS
(Organization of American States), and NED (National Endowment for
Democracy) oversaw the process and poured in $12 per Nicaraguan voter in
their campaigns, the Sandanistas were done. Guess who’s overseeing this
election?

As far as I am concerned the referendum on Chavez is a showdown between the
social movements of the poor in Latin America (and the political leaders
that have sprung from them), vs. the US political establishment, from the
Miami Gusanos and Otto Reich all the way “left” to Howard Dean. It is a
struggle that may define the near future of Latin American nations in
transition. Should the US method of buying recall elections and funding its
favored parties prove successful in overturning an elected government before
its term ends, it will have found an effective tool to impose its will
wherever its interests are threatened: a much cleaner alternative to the
Contras or Pinochet’s henchmen.
As millions of dollars flow from quasi-government agencies in the US to prop
up defeated political parties and oligarchies in Bolivia and elsewhere, the
traditionally voiceless movements of the poor have to fight that much harder
to achieve their democratic will. As we well know, money can change the
outcomes of elections, and this is particularly so in less-developed nations
which lack the institutional checks that maintain a semblance of fair
elections. So far, neither violent coups, nor well-funded propaganda
campaigns have been capable of toppling Chavez, Lula, or Evo’s MAS party.
Should the US win in Venezuela they will up their efforts further south. And
social movements which have chosen peaceful means by investing in electoral
politics will be forced to reconsider that path.

On the other hand, should Venezuelans overcome the US’ campaign finance
system and re-elect their President, you will see a re-energized movement in
Venezuela move even faster on its social reforms, and re-energized movements
across Latin America that will feel empowered to take on entrenched elites
and their “yankee” backers. And you will see more and more elites flee to
Miami. (What I don’t want to consider is how US strategies will evolve if
their tampering fails.) For these reasons, all eyes from Miami to La Paz
will be on Venezuela tomorrow.