Shocker: Global Warming Bad For Skiing

from Cascadia Scoreboard:

Shocker: Global Warming Bad For Skiing
A new study from researchers at Oregon State University, showing
that warming trends are likely to have significant effects on
snowpack. (Good articles in the Seattle Times and the Oregonian.
posted below) The Northwest's coastal mountains are especially
sensitive to climate change because temperatures frequently hover
near freezing--so even slight warming can drastically reduce the
amount of snow that accumulates. (For localized details, click on
the image at right, from the Seattle Times.)

By 2040, if warming trends continue as predicted:

About 3,600 square miles of low-elevation terrain usually covered by
snow during the winter would be dominated by rainfall.
Nearly 22 percent of the snow-covered areas of the Oregon Cascades
and 12.5 percent of the snow areas of the Washington Cascades would
shift to a rain-dominated winter climate.
More than 60 percent of the Olympic Range's snow-covered area would
have rain-dominated winters.
The OSU findings aren't exactly revolutionary, but they are more
evidence that the Northwest has particular reason to be concerned
about the impacts of climate change. And the snowpack affects a lot
more important aspects of life in the region than just skiing:
salmon run, irrigated farms, residential water supplies, and so on.

graph:
http://cascadiascorecard.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/snow_5.gif
<http://cascadiascorecard.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/snow_5.gif>


found at
http://cascadiascorecard.typepad.com/blog/2006/03/shocker_global_.htm
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Global warming may melt away fun, study says
By Susan Gilmore

Seattle Times staff reporter


Global warming over the next 40 years could severely reduce snowpack
at Northwest ski resorts and eat into summertime water supplies, a
new study released Tuesday says.

The study, conducted by scientists at Oregon State University,
looked at the impact on Northwest snowpack if temperatures warm
about 3.5 degrees in the next four decades, as some global-climate
models suggest.

"This is a sensitivity study, not a prediction," said Anne Nolin, a
professor in the Department of Geosciences at Oregon State
University and an author of the study. "We looked at the potential
vulnerability to change in winter precipitation."

The study found, for example, that currently 3 percent of winters at
Stevens Pass are considered warm — meaning that precipitation that
typically falls predominantly as snow instead falls predominantly as
rain.

But over the next four decades, the chances of a warm winter at
Stevens Pass could rise more than 10 fold, to 37 percent.

Today, 27 percent of Snoqualmie Pass winters are warm; that could
more than double, to 57 percent.

Hurricane Ridge in the Olympic Mountains has a 33 percent likelihood
of warm winters, but that could jump to 77 percent if global-warming
models prove true.

Nolin said she is not saying such a temperature increase will occur.

The study, which will be published in an upcoming issue of the
Journal of Hydrometeorology, shows that less than 2 percent of the
snow cover in Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Western Montana is at
risk from global warming.

But more than half of the at-risk snow is in the Oregon Cascades;
about 22 percent of the area in the Oregon Cascades that now gets
mostly snow could get mostly rain. The study also found 61 percent
of the snow cover in the Olympics, primarily in Olympic National
Park, may disappear.




"This region has already experienced the largest declines in
snowpack in the Western United States," Nolin said. "What we're able
to do now is identify much more precisely where the snow may
disappear, based on the warming we expect."

The study showed that about 3,600 square miles of land now covered
in winter by low-elevation snow could shift to a climate dominated
by rain. Previous studies show that snowmelt in this region already
comes nine to 11 days earlier than it did 50 years ago.

Nolin said the shift also could affect community water supplies.

When it rains, water tends to run off immediately, she said. But
snow is banked, melting in the spring and early summer and feeding
ground-water supplies that store water and keep rivers and streams
flowing.

"Snowpack is one of the things that's critically important for
recharging groundwater, since it melts slowly and infiltrates,
rather than running off as rainfall does," Nolin said.

Susan Gilmore: 206-464-2054 or sgilmore [at] seattletimes.com

2006 The Seattle Times Company


found at
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2002851014_warming08m.html
<http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2002851014_warming08m.html>

Warmer winters may melt ski spots
Global warming - Even a small temperature gain could spell doom for
many Northwest ski resorts
Wednesday, March 08, 2006
RICHARD L. HILL
CORVALLIS This winter's deep snow in the Cascades is a snowboarder's
dream, but a new study suggests that ski areas may have fewer such
bonanza seasons if Northwest temperatures continue to rise as they
have for decades.

Projecting warmer weather from a climate model keyed to the Pacific
Northwest, researchers at Oregon State University identify 19 ski
areas in the Cascade and Olympic mountain areas as being "at risk"
of substantially fewer cold, and snowy, winters by midcentury.

They calculate that Mt. Hood Meadows Ski Resort, for example, now
faces warm winters about 7 percent of the time but by 2040 would
have warm winters nearly half the time. If the projections prove
accurate, lower elevation ski areas, such as Cooper Spur and Mt.
Hood Skibowl, would be especially hard-hit, going to warm winters
nearly 75 percent of the time, up from between 30 percent and 40
percent now.

Advertisement





Past climate studies by others have projected rising temperatures
and thinner Northwest snowpacks. But this study, by OSU geographers
Anne W. Nolin and Christopher Daly and slated for publication in the
Journal of Hydrometeorology, is the first to employ a climate
mapping system that identifies relatively small areas in the
Cascades where snow might disappear.

The potential dramatic impact of the findings owes to the transition
climate of the Cascades in which a single degree or two Fahrenheit
often is the difference between snow and rain. The same is not true,
for example, in the far colder Wallowas of northeast Oregon.

This makes some portions of the Northwest -- in this case, the lower-
elevation Cascades -- more prone than others to showing the symptoms
of global warming.

Partly funded by the U.S. Geological Survey and NASA, the study
identifies areas of Oregon, Washington, Idaho and western Montana
that could have less snow during the core winter months of December,
January and February.

Only about 2.5 percent of the Northwest's total winter snow cover
would be affected, the researchers say. But half of the at-risk snow
area is "disproportionately concentrated" in the Oregon Cascades,
the findings show, because snow in many areas falls and accumulates
at temperatures hovering right at the freezing point.


Changes in store


Nolin and Daly conclude that by the year 2040:

(continued at the Oregonian website)


found at
http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1141790140180310.xml&coll=7
<http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1141790140180310.xml&coll=7>