The Palestinian Authority and Hamas: Clutching at straws

The long-awaited meeting between Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, which was to take place this week, has been postponed indefinitely due to the absence of common ground on each and every issue on the agenda. The PA wanted the meeting to take place, not so much because it thought the Israeli government was displaying unexpected goodwill, but rather to appease the Bush administration which had asked that the meeting occur prior to Abbas's visit to Washington later this month.

PA officials insist that more time is needed to prepare for a successful meeting between Sharon and Abbas. It is amply clear, however, that the problem goes far beyond the scarcity of time.

Israel is not enthusiastic about the renewal of genuine negotiations with the PA, preferring instead to continue with its unilateral approach towards the Palestinians, following the Gaza example. Israeli leaders, including Sharon and Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, seem convinced that any serious talks with the PA would sooner or later force Israel to deal with the roadmap peace plan and, therefore, face the hard issues of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, such as illegal Jewish settlements.

For its part, the PA is eager to bank successes that can be presented to the Palestinian public prior to parliamentary elections scheduled for 27 January 2006. The PA hopes Israel will agree to release a significant number of an estimated 10,000 Palestinian political prisoners detained in squalid conditions, many as "administrative detainees" incarcerated for prolonged and renewable periods without trial or charge, in Israeli prisons. The PA also hopes that Israel will agree to withdraw troops from Palestinian population centres in the West Bank; a prerequisite, even precondition, of the organisation of legislative elections.

Indeed, Abbas and the entire Fatah leadership face a Palestinian public increasingly disillusioned with the incompetent performance of the PA; especially its failure to establish law and order in the Gaza Strip as well as elsewhere. This week, American envoy David Welch held talks in Ramallah and West Jerusalem focussing on one issue: strengthening Abbas's government vis-à-vis Hamas. Welch told Israeli leaders that Israel could do much to enhance Abbas's public image. He suggested that Israel should do more to improve the lives of Palestinians, removing at least some of the ubiquitous roadblocks and checkpoints that lie throughout the West Bank and which effectively throttle the Palestinian economy and kill any semblance of normalcy.

Welch also asked Israel to allow the PA to import arms, which he suggested would be used not against Israel but mainly against Hamas, Israel's number one enemy. Israel continues to press the PA to crack down on Hamas, even if that would mean civil war and even though the PA lacks the means to actually do so.

Last week, Israeli Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz voiced dismay that recent clashes between PA police and Hamas fighters in Gaza "didn't go far enough". Israel has long wished to see Palestinian society implode, and which would provide Israel with every excuse to rule by diktat as well as complete, undisturbed, settlement expansion schemes in the West Bank. Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Hamas, are well aware of Israeli dreams in this regard.

This week, Mofaz received bad news when the armed wings of the various Palestinian resistance groups agreed to put an end to all forms of misuse of "resistance weapons". The armed wings denounced recent inter-factional kidnappings and violence that sent shockwaves through the Palestinian society, bringing Palestinians a step closer to the ultimate redline: internal dissolution and civil war.

"We announce that all of the military wings are united in their positions and faith and that we consider any attack on one of us as an attack on us all," the eight factions said in a statement read during a Gaza press conference Saturday. The eight factions, including Hamas and Fatah military wings, denounced rampant chaos, including the kidnapping of four Hamas activists in the West Bank. "Any action aimed at spreading chaos or internal strife will be considered treason," the statement added.

On Friday 7 October, gunmen believed to be associated with a PA security agency abducted the dean of the Engineering Department at An- Najah National University in Nablus, along with three other Islamic political activists. The gunmen, calling themselves the regiments of Omar Ibn Al-Khattab (after the second caliph) claimed responsibility for the kidnappings, saying they were warning to Hamas not to undermine the PA.

The kidnappings have been widely condemned by Palestinian intellectuals, journalists and community leaders. One Palestinian journalist, Hamdi Farraj, scoffed at the audacity of the feat, wondering how "school dropouts" could kidnap and ill treat a university professor, including raiding his home and terrorising his family.

Hamas blamed the PA's General Intelligence (GI) for the kidnapping, describing the kidnappers as "a bunch of hoodlums, gangsters and common criminals". The GI denied any involvement, blaming the kidnappings on "intra- Hamas rivalries". Hamas described the GI denial as "disingenuous and nakedly mendacious".

Meantime, the Israeli army continues to arrest Hamas activists in the West Bank, with the apparent goal being to prevent Hamas from participating in the upcoming elections, or at least weakening it considerably prior to the polls. Palestinian sources have put the number of Islamic activists, including professionals and community leaders, arrested by Israel during the past two weeks at 650.

Israel seemingly hopes that the wave of arrests will weaken Hamas and enhance Fatah ahead of the elections. The opposite may be true, as ordinary Palestinians are likely to identify with any party or faction targeted by Israel.

Meanwhile, the participation or otherwise of Hamas in Palestinian legislative elections presents Abbas and the PA with a real dilemma. On the one hand, the exclusion of Hamas would eviscerate the elections of credibility and democratic substance. Palestinians would view the poll as a big joke. On the other hand, Hamas's participation could result in victory for Islamic candidates and drastically change the Palestinian political panorama. Abbas would be forced to adapt politically to a new reality. This would certainly include a hardening in the overall Palestinian posture vis-à-vis Israel. The PA could be forced to re-assert more determinedly erstwhile Palestinian constants, especially with regard to the inviolable status of East Jerusalem and the right of millions of Palestinian refugees to return to their former homes, towns and villages in what is now Israel.

Interestingly, such a stance enjoys overwhelming support among Palestinians and probably would serve as a unifying rather than a divisive force. A Hamas electoral victory, in this sense, if bad for Fatah could be the best thing going for the PA. Regardless, it is doubtful whether Israel is truly interested in seeing Palestinians hold democratic and transparent elections. Israel stands against anything that would empower and strengthen the Palestinian people and therefore enhance their international standing vis-à-vis Israel.

With Israel's position undeclared, coupled with increasingly vague American signals on the issue of Hamas's participation in the polls, much uncertainty remains over the elections. Ironically, any Israeli interference would only vindicate groups, such as Islamic Jihad, who have long argued it is pointless to organise elections under occupation and that force must free Palestinians first.

http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2005/764/re1.htm