Can queerbashing win Presidency again in 2008?

Bush's handlers effectively used the same-sex marriage issue to win the presidency on 2 November 2004, by attracting fundis and bigots to the polls. Probably this tactic worked best in eleven states where an anti-queer hate amendment was on the November ballot.


Similar state constitutional amendments may appear on ballots
in 2005, 2006, and 2007.
For Republican candidates, these amendments may be helpful --
but only once or twice.


If a hate amendment is approved by voters, and if it's NOT voided by a state supreme court, then the issue goes moot in that state, at least for ten or twenty years. Republicans can't pass the exact same amendment twice, though they might like to.


But if such an amendment is approved by voters, and then later voided by a state supreme court, Republicans may be able to propose a new version of the amendment, to benefit their candidates one more time. State courts are most likely to void an amendment if it covers two separate topics -- such as marriage AND civil unions.


Whether Republicans get one shot or two, in any given state, eventually their ammunition will run out. I hope they'll rashly use up all their bullets BEFORE November 2008.


By the summer of 2008, I expect that same-sex marriage will be banned by the state constitutions of 45 states or more. (And I think some of those states will also offer Vermont-style civil unions to their same-sex couples.)


Probably Massachusetts will still be performing same-sex weddings. Most U.S. same-sex couples, if they want to be legally married,
will travel to Mass.


For most states, the real marriage question will be whether to recognize same-sex marriages created elsewhere -- in Massachusetts, Canada, Europe, or perhaps New Zealand.

I think New York State will recognize Massachusetts same-sex marriages, but won't perform such weddings itself.


As for California, I think we can expect an anti-marriage amendment on the November 2006 ballot,
designed to help Republican candidates for state and Congressional offices. Probably it will pass, tho that's not certain.


As for a federal anti-marriage amendment, that will never get 67 votes in the U.S. Senate, IMQO.
Such an amendment may be voted upon every two years, but it's just a charade -- like the flag-burning amendment, biennially exhumed to discomfort Democrats.

In my queer opinion,
TBL
in San Franhattan
http://seniornude.blogspot.com/
Thursday, 4 November 2004
..................................................................