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Exit polls and ‘actual’ results don’t match; Evoting states show greater discrepancy
I heard one commentator last night saying the Europeans were looking at the exit polls very closely and were concerned. This also makes sense with the obvious consolidation of exit polling into AP alone and the strange 'failure' of the only other exit polling company besides AP in 2000 (VNS), so that exit polling data cannot be examined. International observers complained they had worse access to polls than in the Middle East, and states like Florida are suddenly making strange laws that no one in line can be filmed, etc. Given that the media won't TOUCH the scam of the machines themselves, maybe the polling data discrepancies can make some headway.
11/3/2004
Exit polls and ‘actual’ results don’t match; Evoting states show greater discrepancy
An analysis of exit polling, which showed Kerry with a tighter margin and leading in myriad states, raises serious questions about the authenticity of the popular vote in several key states.
The analysis, conducted by a poster at the popular Democratic forum, Democratic Underground, suggests possible voter fraud in states that do not have electronic voting receipts.
An exit poll involves asking someone after they walk out of the election booth who they voted for. While not a guide for proving results, it can be a mechanism for ensuring voting accuracy and flagging potential fraud.
Perhaps more importantly, while exit polling is unreliable, the odds of President Bush having gaining an advantage from every exit poll in swing states is an extremely improbable coincidence.
In Florida, Bush led exit polling by CNN of more than 3 million voters by just 5355 votes. Yet he led by 326,000 in the end result. This morning, CNN changed their exit polling to favor Bush, saying that had overweighted African American voters.
In Wisconsin, where exit polls put Kerry up seven percent, Bush has a lead of one percent, an unexplained difference of eight percent.
In New Mexico, Kerry led Bush by 3.8 percent, yet Bush leads Kerry by 3 percent in actual reported voting.
In Minnesota, where a new law sharply restricts reporters’ access to polls, Kerry led 9.6 percent in exit polling. Actual voting counts found that Bush trailed by 5 percent, with a 5 percent discrepancy favoring Bush.
Exit polls put Kerry up by 8 percent in Michigan; actual results show Bush trailing by just 3 percent.
New Hampshire, which has electronic voting but provides verified receipts, exit polling is within 0.1 percent of the actual vote. Kerry led by 3 percent in exit polling, and 2.9 percent in the actual vote.
Kerry does not gain by any significant margin in actual voting in any state for which analysis has been conducted.
It is notable that the exit polling accurately predicted the results in most states with very little error. Where there were discrepancies, they were significant in the +5 percent range, and always favored Bush.
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Exit polls and ‘actual’ results don’t match; Evoting states show greater discrepancy
An analysis of exit polling, which showed Kerry with a tighter margin and leading in myriad states, raises serious questions about the authenticity of the popular vote in several key states.
The analysis, conducted by a poster at the popular Democratic forum, Democratic Underground, suggests possible voter fraud in states that do not have electronic voting receipts.
An exit poll involves asking someone after they walk out of the election booth who they voted for. While not a guide for proving results, it can be a mechanism for ensuring voting accuracy and flagging potential fraud.
Perhaps more importantly, while exit polling is unreliable, the odds of President Bush having gaining an advantage from every exit poll in swing states is an extremely improbable coincidence.
In Florida, Bush led exit polling by CNN of more than 3 million voters by just 5355 votes. Yet he led by 326,000 in the end result. This morning, CNN changed their exit polling to favor Bush, saying that had overweighted African American voters.
In Wisconsin, where exit polls put Kerry up seven percent, Bush has a lead of one percent, an unexplained difference of eight percent.
In New Mexico, Kerry led Bush by 3.8 percent, yet Bush leads Kerry by 3 percent in actual reported voting.
In Minnesota, where a new law sharply restricts reporters’ access to polls, Kerry led 9.6 percent in exit polling. Actual voting counts found that Bush trailed by 5 percent, with a 5 percent discrepancy favoring Bush.
Exit polls put Kerry up by 8 percent in Michigan; actual results show Bush trailing by just 3 percent.
New Hampshire, which has electronic voting but provides verified receipts, exit polling is within 0.1 percent of the actual vote. Kerry led by 3 percent in exit polling, and 2.9 percent in the actual vote.
Kerry does not gain by any significant margin in actual voting in any state for which analysis has been conducted.
It is notable that the exit polling accurately predicted the results in most states with very little error. Where there were discrepancies, they were significant in the +5 percent range, and always favored Bush.
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For more information:
http://www.bluelemur.com/index.php?p=388
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Wed, Nov 3, 2004 10:43AM
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