Election Night Lessons 2004

Incumbents usually win and labor is very weak is the lesson of the 2004 election, as it has been for decades. Prop 66, to end the prison madness, failed statewide, but the honor roll for it is instructive. Prop 72, the healthcare prop, is barely loosing and that could change. The same old lesson prevails: Always vote your conscience.

This so-called "heavy voter turnout" is pathetic. As of this writing, with 100% of the precincts reporting in San Francisco but no provisional ballots counted, 271,058 people voted in San Francisco, out of 600,000 adults. That figure may go up to 300,000, which would be the usual for a presidential election. In California, with 85% of the precincts reporting, 9,382,628 people voted out of 27 million adults. That figure may go up to 11 million, the usual for a presidential election. Once again, most of the workingclass, those of us who sell our labor for less than $70,000 per year, did not vote.

In California, absolutely no surprises occurred in major races. Democrat Kerry won 54% of the vote, prevailing in the coastal counties from Mendocino to Monterey in the North, plus the Sacramento area and Lake Tahoe area, with Southern California contributing Los Angeles and Imperial Counties to Kerry’s victory in California. Considering two-thirds of California’s population of 35 million is south of Monterey, it took the heavily populated Los Angeles County to guarantee that simple majority victory for the warmongering Democrat Kerry. San Francisco led the state with 83% of the vote going to Kerry, the usual percentage for the leading Democrat in a general election in San Francisco.

At the national level, as of this writing, we are waiting for the former industrial heartland state, Ohio, to decide the presidential election. The Republican Party won both houses of Congress. Both of these results mean that there is not a dime’s worth of difference between the warmongering, pro-death penalty, pro-fascist Patriot Act capitalist Democrats and Republicans. The fact that Ohio, of all states, is undecided, is ridiculous. If the Democrats had a serious workingclass program, they would easily win all of the states North of the Mason-Dixon line (north of Virginia, east of the Mississippi), plus the West Coast. Kerry won this usual Democratic bastion, except Ohio and Iowa, which are undecided. Considering how terrible Bush is, this race should not have been close. It means the Democrats have nothing to offer and if you want change, you must vote your conscience, and beyond voting, we must do labor organizing.

The Democratic US Senator Barbara Boxer, won 58% of the vote, with 83% going for her in San Francisco. Peace & Freedom’s excellent candidate, Marsha Feinland, won 2% of the vote statewide (177,185 votes with 85% of the precincts reporting), enabling Peace & Freedom Party to stay on the ballot.

For US Congress, Democrats Nancy Pelosi won her usual 82% of the vote and Tom Lantos won with 69% of the vote. The Lantos incumbency was thought to be seriously contested as this old reactionary warmonger deserves to be retired, but in a primarily homeowner district that includes the western section of San Francisco plus San Mateo County, an incumbent easily wins, especially if they are reactionary.

The truth about San Francisco’s voters may be found with the weak result for Proposition N, calling for withdrawal of all US troops from Iraq, won 63% of the vote, with 147,000 voting yes and 85,000 voting no, in a County that votes over 80% for the leading Democrat and gives 2% of its vote to Peace & Freedom’s US Senate candidate Feinland and 3% to Peace & Freedom’s candidate against Pelosi, Leilani Dowell and 2% of its vote to the write-in Green candidate, Terry Baum.

The supervisor races were clearly all about incumbency and money.

District 1, the Richmond District, incumbent and pro-rent control Democrat Jake McGoldrick easily won with 42% of the vote, defeating anti-rent control former judge Democrat Lillian Sing who came in second with 29% of the vote.

District 5, the Haight-Ashbury and the Fillmore, where the incumbent, Green Party’s Matt Gonzalez, declined to run again although he would have been easily re-elected, Green Party’s top fundraiser of the 3 Green candidates (the others being Feldstein who got 9% and King who got 2% of the vote), Ross Mirkarimi, was elected supervisor with 28% of the vote, beating the top Democratic candidate, Robert Haaland, who received 14% of the vote. All of the named candidates here are pro-rent control, the litmus test issue in San Francisco.

District 9, the Mission and Bernal Heights, pro-rent control incumbent Democrat Tom Ammiano, easily won with 50% of the vote, with Green Party’s Renee Saucedo coming in second with 21% of the vote and the anti-rent control Democrat, Miguel Bustos, receiving 17% of the vote. Socialist Lucrecia Bermudez won 4% of the vote and socialist Peace & Freedom Party member Steve Zeltzer won 2% of the vote. District 9 is the most radical voting district in San Francisco, yet it re-elected an incumbent who proudly supports the US military base known as Israel and who supported both stadium swindles, the illegal cross on Mt. Davidson, and the entire reactionary Democratic Party ticket, all of whom by definition are pro-Israel, and whose party is just as pro-war and pro-death penalty as the Republican Party.

District 11, pro-rent control Democrat Gerardo Sandoval was easily re-elected with 32% of the vote. This was thought to be contested.

In all other supervisorial races, the incumbents won.

With the ranked-choice voting we have in these supervisors races, we will save $1 million in not having a runoff. That is why we should keep ranked choice voting. It clearly had no effect on the usual pattern of incumbents or, as in the case of District 5, the heavy spending candidate of the same party as the retiring incumbent, prevailing.

As to the propositions, given the fact that every single labor dispute for the past 10-20 years has been over healthcare, we have 45 million uninsured, and almost half of all personal bankruptcies are due to inability to pay medical bills despite having insurance, the fact that Proposition 72 only has 49.2% of the vote with 85% of precincts reporting, is shameful. It may yet pass at the statewide level. In San Francisco, it won with 69% of the vote. San Francisco did pass its own healthcare initiative, Prop G, with 69% of the vote. Prop G authorizes the City’s Health Service Board to establish health plans for City residents.

Proposition 66, the initiative that would finally change the reactionary Three Strikes law passed 10 years ago so that the third offense must be a violent crime, and not just a felony theft, to send a person to prison for life, was defeated with 52% voting No. This is a direct result of the workingclass not voting and the vicious, racist fear-mongering ads of reactionary Republican Governor Schwarzenegger against it. About the best that can be said is that in spite of who voted, Prop 66 won 47% of the vote, meaning prison reform is clearly on the agenda.

The honor roll for Yes on 66 is:

(The map of the 58 counties of California may be found at:
http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/ca_map_counties.html)

San Francisco 69%
Santa Cruz 66%
Humboldt 63%
Alpine 63%
Mendocino 60%
Alameda 59%
Marin 59%
Monterey 59%
Santa Barbara 57%
Sonoma 55%
San Mateo 54%
Siskiyou 54%
Monterey 53%
San Luis Obispo 53%
Butte 52%
Yolo 51%
Del Norte 51%
Trinity 51%
Santa Clara 50%