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Looking for a role model

by Al-Ahram Weekly (reposted)
Should the Arab world follow China, or follow India, asks Ayman El-Amir*
In a world where globalisation presents both a threat and a promise, many developing countries, including Arab ones, are grasping for the secret formula that made China and India global economic giants in the span of 25 years. With its staggering economic growth for more than a decade, China has leapfrogged from market economy to miracle economy. It achieved a 10.5 per cent increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) last year alone. India, which is considered the world's fourth largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity, is poised to be the world's third economic power after the US and China in less than two decades. While dependent on imported oil and raw material, both countries have developed manufacturing capacity that is inundating world markets.

What is puzzling is that both Asian economic powers owe their achievements to incompatible political ideologies. China is governed by an avowed communist elite, while India is proudly the world's most populous democracy where people freely vote governments in and out of office. So, for struggling developing countries, which is the shortest cut to riches?

For the Arab states of the Middle East the challenge is even greater. They are mostly countries in transition that are meandering towards consistent political and economic systems. This motley group of countries ranges from feudal monarchies to republican autocracies, with few exceptions in between. Their difficult road to development is strewn with civil conflict, sectarian chaos, military occupation, foreign political and military hegemony, internal repression and the destabilising effect of the threat of terrorism. On the other hand, China and India are beating the staunchest world economic powers, the US included, at their own game, competing in all industries, from chip making to movie making. Arab countries can boast of little more than oil and gas exports, modest tourism and no regional integration to speak of.

The dilemma for developing Arab countries is whether a sound democratic environment based on strong political institutions, free elections, power sharing and rotation, respect for human rights and a genuine separation of powers is a pre-requisite for robust economic growth and integration in the global economy. For some, the need does not arise as long as millions of barrels of oil continue to flow out and billions of US dollars flow back. They have China and India's voracious appetite for raw material to thank for the bonanza of oil prices of last year. For some other Arab countries, an ironclad hold on power through a single party system, festooned with democratic slogans, is the guaranteed way to ensure stability and make economic progress. They can confidently point to China and to South Korea a decade ago, to show that liberal democracy was no pre- condition for economic and social prosperity. After all, in the last century, the former Soviet Union developed its awesome industrial might under conditions close to slavery during the Stalinist era and despite involvement in two scarring world wars. The paradox is that the Marxist-Leninist ideology that guided Soviet policies was unsustainable. The empire came crashing down when it tried to modernise by adopting Western-style market economy and political liberalism. Mikhail Gorbachev's perestroika and glasnost undid it.

More
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2007/833/op2.htm
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