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UID:Indybay-18624655
SEQUENCE:18681868
CREATED:20091006T223800Z
DESCRIPTION:Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is an expert of game theory—the idea that people 
 compete and that they always do what they think is in their own best 
 interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human 
 behavior to predict events and his forecasts have a 90 percent accuracy 
 rate. He boldly predicts that President Obama is unlikely to quash the 
 terrorist influence in Pakistan, that Iran will not develop nuclear 
 weapons, and that global warming will prove immune to government 
 prescriptions. In his new book, The Predictioneer’s Game, Bueno de 
 Mesquita uses his mathematical model to predict outcomes in business, 
 national security, and people’s day-to-day lives based on the 
 self-interest of decision makers. He joins the Council to detail his system 
 of calculation that allows him to predict the outcomes of North Korean 
 disarmament talks, the Middle East peace process, Iran’s nuclear 
 ambitions, Iran-Iraq relations following American troop withdrawals, and 
 many other vexing national security challenges. Since the early 1980s, CIA 
 officials have hired Bueno de Mesquita to perform more than a thousand 
 predictions and a study by the CIA, now declassified, found that his 
 predictions “hit the bull’s-eye” twice as often as its own analysts 
 did.\n https://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2009/10/06/18624655.php
SUMMARY:Are Outcomes to National Security Challenges Predictable?
LOCATION:World Affairs Council Auditorium\n312 Sutter Street, 2nd Floor\nSan 
 Francisco, CA 94108
URL:https://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2009/10/06/18624655.php
DTSTART:20091027T010000Z
DTEND:20091027T020000Z
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