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Diversifying The U.S. Energy Economy Under The EPA Proposed Power Plant Rule

by Tomas DiFiore
The green renewable energy job market scenario – growing, adding long term employment at good wages! The solar industry continues to be an engine of job growth, creating jobs six times faster than the overall job market. The latest U.S. figures from The Solar Foundation, an independent research organization, show a 13 percent growth in high-skilled solar jobs spanning installations, sales, marketing, manufacturing and software development, bringing total direct jobs to 119,000 in the sector. DOE anticipates this robust growth to continue. SunShot Vision Study projections estimate that by 2030 more than a quarter million highly-skilled solar workers will contribute to the U.S. economy.
Diversifying The U.S. Energy Economy Under The EPA Proposed Power Plant Rule

EPA- “Policies that encourage development of renewable energy capacity and discourage premature retirement of nuclear capacity could be useful elements of CO 2 reduction strategies and are consistent with current industry behavior.”

Avoid Premature Retirement Of Nuclear EGUs - Don't Build Them

Renewable Energy = 10% of Total US Electricity Generation Capacity In August 2014
http://cleantechnica.com/2014/11/02/us-electricity-generation-update/

Wind power is the most mature non-hydro renewable. As such, wind power accounted for 26% of renewable electricity production in August and 33% for the first 8 months of 2014, up from 31% for the same period in 2013. Of all electricity sources, wind provided 2.65% of electricity in August and 4.39% for the first 8 months of the year, up from 4.11% for the same 8 months in 2013.

In October, nearly three-quarters of new utility-scale capacity in the U.S. was solar power. California is leading in adding distributed solar and new natural gas power plants, as well. The picture for 2014 could look like last year, with its strong growth in renewables. Wind projects that began in 2013 and claimed the tax credit are likely to be completed in 2014, and state renewable portfolio standards will continue to drive utility-scale solar growth.

Natural gas was the leader in new generating capacity for electric utilities in 2013, and grid-scale solar was the runner-up, providing about 22 percent of new generating capacity. Solar in 2012, provided less than 6 percent of new generation, according to the U.S. EIA.

“From A Climate Perspective The Shale Gas Revolution Is Essentially Irrelevant” - No one sums it up like Bill McKibben, Post Carbon Institute September 10, 2014
http://evnewsreport.com/tag/sandra-steingraber/

“Even as the price of solar panels has dropped, inexpensive fracked gas reduces the incentives to convert to sun and wind. And once you’ve built the pipelines and gas-fired power plants, the sunk investment makes it that much harder to switch: suddenly you have a bunch of gas barons who will fight as hard as the coal barons Obama is now trying to subdue.”

“As it turns out, economists have studied the dynamics of this transition, and each time reached the same conclusion: because gas undercuts wind and sun just as much as it undercuts coal, there’s no net climate benefit in switching to it. For instance, the venerable International Energy Agency in 2011 concluded that a large-scale shift to gas would muscle out low-carbon fuels and still result in raising the globe’s temperatures 3.5 degrees Celsius, 75 percent above the 2-degree level that the world’s governments have identified as the disaster line. The head of the UN’s environment program, Achem Steiner, said earlier this year that the development of shale gas would be a liability in fighting global warming if it turns into a 20 to 30-year delay for low-and zero-carbon models.”

“The biggest single modeling exercise on this issue was carried out at Stanford in 2013, when teams from 14 companies, government agencies, and universities combined forces. They concluded that, in the words of analyst Joe Romm, from a climate perspective the shale gas revolution is essentially irrelevant, and arguably a massive diversion of resources and money that could have gone into carbon-free sources. And that study didn’t even look at the impact of leaking methane. It’s time to stop searching for a bridge and simply take the leap.”

Diversifying The U.S. Energy Economy August 14, 2012
Energy Report: U.S. Wind Energy Production and Manufacturing Surges, Supporting Jobs
http://energy.gov/articles/energy-report-us-wind-energy-production-and-manufacturing-surges-supporting-jobs-and

By mid-summer 2012, the Energy Department had released a report highlighting strong growth in the U.S. wind energy market in 2011, increasing the U.S. share of clean energy and supporting tens of thousands of jobs.

“According to the 2011 Wind Technologies Market Report, the United States remained one of the world’s largest and fastest growing wind markets in 2011, with wind power representing 32 percent of all new electric capacity additions in the United States last year and accounting for $14 billion in new investment. The percentage of wind equipment made in America also increased dramatically.”

“Nearly seventy percent of the equipment installed at U.S. wind farms in 2011, including wind turbines and components like towers, blades, gears, and generators is from domestic manufacturers, doubling from 35 percent in 2005. President Obama has made clear that clean, renewable wind energy is a critical part of an all-of-the-above energy strategy that aims to develop more secure, domestic energy sources, while strengthening American manufacturing.”
http://www.energy.gov/maps/wind-manufacturing-facilities

The growth in the industry has also led directly to more American jobs throughout a number of sectors and at factories across the country. According to industry estimates, the wind sector employs 75,000 American workers, including workers at manufacturing facilities throughout the supply chain, as well as engineers and construction workers who design, build and operate the wind farms.

2013 may see a dramatic slowing of domestic wind energy deployment due in part to the possible expiration of federal renewable energy tax incentives. The Production Tax Credit (PTC), which provides an important tax credit to wind producers in the United States and has helped drive the industry’s growth, is set to expire at the end of this year. The wind industry projects that 37,000 jobs could be lost if the PTC expires. Working in tandem with the PTC, the Advanced Energy Manufacturing Tax Credit provides a 30 percent investment credit to manufacturers who invest in capital equipment to make components for clean energy projects in the United States. President Obama called for an extension of these successful tax credits to ensure America leads the world in manufacturing the clean energy technologies of the future.

Solar Among the Fastest Growing Job Markets in America November 8, 2012
http://energy.gov/articles/solar-among-fastest-growing-job-markets-america

News that U.S. solar industry jobs continue to expand at a double-digit annual growth rate shows that efforts to grow the solar market and make solar energy more accessible to all Americans are working. The solar industry continues to be an engine of job growth, creating jobs six times faster than the overall job market.

The latest U.S. figures from The Solar Foundation, an independent research organization, show a 13 percent growth in high-skilled solar jobs spanning installations, sales, marketing, manufacturing and software development, bringing total direct jobs to 119,000 in the sector.

The Energy Department anticipates this robust growth to continue. SunShot Vision Study projections estimate that by 2030 more than a quarter million highly-skilled solar workers will contribute to the U.S. economy. To meet the need for a growing number of solar professionals, the Department is expanding its Solar Instructor Training Network program to connect returning veterans to this high growth sector of our economy.
http://energy.gov/downloads/sunshot-vision-study

Massachusetts Governor Patrick Touts Continued Clean Energy Sector Job Growth
September 29, 2014
http://wwlp.com/2014/09/29/patrick-touts-continued-clean-energy-sector-job-growth/

For the third straight year, jobs in the Massachusetts clean energy industry experienced double-digit growth, increasing by 10.5 percent between July 2013 and 2014, Gov. Deval Patrick announced in Brighton. A state government-sponsored Clean Energy Industry Report forecasts additional growth of 13.5 percent over the next year, increasing employment in the burgeoning sector to 100,000 by early 2015.

“Conventional thinking often says that clean energy is an economic drag. That’s false, and we’ve proved it. Clean tech is no niche industry in Massachusetts. It’s a $10 billion sector of our economy and it’s growing. That didn’t happen by accident.”

Patrick said when he entered office the state had the capacity to generate 3 megawatts of solar energy and 3 megawatts of wind energy, and now there is 643 megawatts of solar and 103 megawatts of wind. According to grid operator ISO New England, the state’s peak demand in 2013 was for 12,996 megawatts.

The clean energy sector is a significant player in the state’s economy, constituting 2.4 percent of all workers in the state, which is more than the insurance industry and about half the information technology sector. Since 2010, the clean energy sector added more than 28,000 jobs and there are now nearly 6,000 firms, according to the report.

“Following the net loss of 54,323 oil and natural gas production jobs during the 2008-09 recession and relatively little national job growth, jobs in oil and natural gas production increased from 2009 to 2013, from 422,033 to 586,884. Most of the job growth has occurred in Texas, along with significant contributions from Oklahoma, New Mexico, and North Dakota.” Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Drilling Productivity Report:
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

Preliminary national data for the first quarter of 2014 show only 1,355 net job additions in oil and natural gas production from the end of 2013 through March 2014.

New Solar Energy Deployment Job Stats

January 28, 2014 New Solar Job Statistics Released, And Other Renewables Growing
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/01/new-solar-job-statistics-released-but-other-renewables-are-growing-too

Washngton, D.C. non-profit The Solar Foundation just released its National Solar Jobs Census 2013, which is the fourth annual update of current employment and projected growth in the United States solar industry. January 28, 2014

The Foundation’s conclusion: “Our research shows that solar industry employment has grown by an astonishing 53 percent, or nearly 50,000 new solar jobs, since we first started tracking them in 2010. Leading this growth are businesses in the installation sector, in which solar employment has grown by nearly 60 percent over the four-year period covered by the Census series, representing more than 25,000 jobs created in the sector since 2010.”

“As of November 2013, the solar industry has grown to 142,698 solar workers, which is nearly 20 percent greater than the 2012 solar jobs figures and over ten times the growth that the overall U.S. economy experienced during that same time.”

“Solar employment is expected to grow by 15.6 percent over the next year, representing the addition of approximately 22,240 new solar workers. Forty-five percent of all solar establishments expect to have added solar employees by November 2014.”

“Two-thirds of new solar hires are living-wage installation jobs. Installers added the most solar workers over the past year, growing by 22 percent, an increase of 12,500 workers. Installer jobs, which cannot be outsourced and earn an average of $23.63 per hour, are expected to increase nearly 15,000 next year. This represents a 21 percent year-over-year growth rate. And the report notes that, ”Nineteen percent of all solar workers are women, representing 26,738 solar workers, and one in six solar workers is Latino or Hispanic. With 13,192 U.S. veterans working at solar establishments across the United States, the solar industry is also exceeding the percentage of veterans employed in the broader U.S. workforce.”

“According to the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), robust investment in energy efficiency could save $1.2 trillion by 2020, and the United States could create 1.3 to 1.9 million jobs by 2050 through the deployment of energy efficient technologies. Similarly, the Alliance to Save Energy (ASE) projects 1.3 million jobs by 2030, according to the report: Energy Efficiency Services Sector: Workforce Size and Expectations for Growth.
http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/emp/reports/lbnl-3987e.pdf

But the EPA Proposed Power Plant Rule, only incorporates 'renewable green power' as a program under a States individual carbon emissions programs, a.k.a. California Cap and Trade. As such, only the reduction in CO2 emissions achieved by credit offsets at the State level is recognized, and monetized. And not the actual economic value of the renewable green power generation capacity in terms of Jobs, or ZERO emissions (wind, solar).

The Contradiction Of Zero Carbon Emissions And Nuclear Electrical Generating Units (EGUs)

“Low-and zero-carbon generating capacity provides electricity that can be substituted for generation from more carbon-intensive EGUs. More than half the states already have established some form of state-level renewable energy requirements, with targets calling on average for almost 20 percent of 2020 generation to be supplied from renewable sources. The EPA is unaware of analogous state policies to support development of new nuclear units, but 30 states already have nuclear EGUs (with five units under construction) and the generation from these units is currently helping to avoid CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel-fired EGUs.”

“Policies that encourage development of renewable energy capacity and discourage premature retirement of nuclear capacity could be useful elements of CO 2 reduction strategies and are consistent with current industry behavior.”

Promoting Clean, Renewable Energy: Investments in Wind and Solar
http://www.whitehouse.gov/recovery/innovations/clean-renewable-energy

The White House, did an in depth study and published results concluding that the cost of solar power could become cheaper than electricity from the grid. “Together, these deployment and research and development programs are working towards the goal of bringing down the cost of solar by half over the next five years, from roughly $0.20/kWh to $0.10/kWh for solar electricity generated at residences. If breakthroughs in technology can bring costs down to $0.06/kWh by 2030, solar power will be cheaper than retail electricity from the grid, even without government incentives. At that cost, an average household with rooftop solar panels could save more than $400 each year in electricity bills.”

The cost of solar is forecast to reach grid parity over the next five years in many parts of the country. “This means homeowners (who pay an average retail cost of about 10 cents/kWh for electricity from the grid) and utility companies (which have average wholesale power costs closer to 5 cents/kWh) can use solar power without paying a premium over fossil-based electricity.”

The wind energy industry has struggled to receive consistent policy support particularly within Congress, which most recently refused to revive the Wind Production Tax Credit (PTC). The PTC was a $13 billion yearly tax break to the wind industry that has helped them compete with fossil fuels tax breaks and incentives. The PTC for wind was a subsidy that’s been built into the tax code for years to encourage growth in the wind industry, but expired on January 1, 2014 due to Congressional gridlock.

“Actual investment in small wind turbines produced in the United States declined substantially, from $101 million in 2012 to just $36 million in 2013, the report said, exports are what helped keep many manufacturers afloat.”

Because both the PTC and the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for wind were renewed for one more year at the end of 2012, federal tax incentives were available for projects that started construction by the end of 2013. Significant new capacity is being built now, which are anticipated to be completed in 2014 and 2015.

According to the American Wind Energy Association, “more than 12,000 megawatts of wind capacity were under construction at the end of 2013. These tax provisions helped restart the domestic wind market and are expected to increase capacity additions in 2014 and 2015, the 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report, also released today, read. With the PTC now expired and its renewal uncertain, however, wind deployment beyond 2015 is also uncertain.”
http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/08/f18/2013%20Wind%20Technologies%20Market%20Report_1.pdf

The Federal Production Tax Credit (PTC)

Federal incentives had a significant impact on wind power deployment as well. Extended in January 2013, the federal production tax credit (PTC) allowed developers of wind projects that begin construction before the end of 2013 to take a 30 percent tax credit and is expected to help boost installations through the end of the year and into 2014. But without long-term policies that can help drive continued wind energy investment, the future for the wind industry is uncertain.

Yet, renewable energy provided 13% of U.S. electricity generation in 2013, up from 12% in 2012 and just 8% in 2007, according to a new report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). The report, produced for The Business Council for Sustainable Energy, covers renewables, energy efficiency and natural gas. According to BNEF, new wind power installations decreased dramatically last year due to the late extension of the wind production tax credit. Conversely, BNEF notes federal solar tax credits did not require renewal for 2013, which helped propel a dramatic 50% increase in cumulative solar installations.

EPA Propose Power Plant Rule Cost Benefits

“The proposal will also cut pollution that leads to soot and smog by over 25 percent in 2030.
Americans will see billions of dollars in public health and climate benefits, now and for future generations.”

“The Clean Power Plan will lead to climate and health benefits worth an estimated $55 billion to $93 billion in 2030, including avoiding 2,700 to 6,600 premature deaths and 140,000 to 150,000 asthma attacks in children.”

The six key greenhouse gases are: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).

What's the easiest way to reduce utilities emissions? Of course, reducing emissions from affected EGUs by reducing the amount of generation required! That's the fourth building block of the EPA Proposed Power Plant Rule.

Jobs In Demand Side Energy Efficiency Projections – EPA

Under the economic analysis of the EPA Proposed Power Plant Rule, the largest job market growth will occur in Demand Side Energy Efficiency.

This is the fourth building block (proposed) to achieve emissions reductions according the EPA Proposed Power Plant Rule and is the largest job creator. “Reducing emissions from affected EGUs in the amount that results from the use of demand-side energy efficiency reduces the amount of generation required.”

“In addition to the cost and benefits of the rule, the EPA projects the employment impacts of the guidelines. We project job gains and losses relative to a base case for the electric generation, coal and natural gas production, and demand side energy efficiency sectors. In 2020, we project job growth of 25,900 to 28,000 job-years in the power production and fuel extraction sectors, and we project an increase of 78,800 jobs in the demand-side energy efficiency sector.”

Estimates Of Jobs vs Job-Years
http://www.epi.org/publication/methodology-estimating-jobs-impact/

Confusion arises in debates over the job-creation impacts of different policies as to how job creation is specified. Job-creation impacts are most commonly expressed as changes in the level of employment at a point in time relative to a counterfactual; wherein the policy was not enacted, or by how many “job-years” would be created relative to the no-policy counterfactual.

The first, jobs, as the change in the level of employment, just expresses the effect of the policy as its impact on the relative number of jobs in the economy at a given point in time.

Job-years, on the other hand, combines data on the impact of a policy on the employment level at different points in time to get a measure of how many job-years are created. So, for example, if a policy change led employment levels to be higher by 70,000 at the end of 2016 than they would have been without the policy (i.e., the “no-policy counterfactual”) and also by 70,000 higher at the end of 2013 relative to a no-policy counterfactual, one can say that the policy resulted in 140,000 job-years.

A question arises as to the policy and deployment time line and longevity, or duration of the relative job sector's economic benefits. To build the nuclear EGUs, and to retrofit coal fired EGUs, and to install re-capture technology on natural gas plants, proceeding in a very specific time frame, to meet Clean Energy goals, precludes an assumed end date, and a subsequent reduction in job numbers.

Avoid Premature Retirement Of Nuclear EGUs - Don't Build Them

Comments on the Clean Power Plan Proposed Rule must be received by December 1, 2014. Be sure to reference Docket ID: EPA-HQ-OAR-2013-0602

Copy and paste this link into your browser's address bar, and use the COMMENT button provided.
http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=EPA-HQ-OAR-2013-0602-0001

Email A-and-R-Docket [at] epa.gov

Fax: Fax your comments to: 202-566-9744.

Gina McCarthy, Administrator
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Email: A-and-R-Docket [at] epa.gov
Fax: 202-566-9744.
Comments on the Clean Power Plan Proposed Rule
Include Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2013-0602 in the subject line of the message

When writing your own comments use an opening such as;
“I am submitting these comments in response to the administration's proposed rule for carbon emissions at existing power plants Docket ID: EPA-HQ-OAR-2013-0602”

“Dear President Obama, EPA Administrator McCarthy
RE: Clean Power Plan for existing power plants Docket ID EPA-HQ-OAR-2013-0602”

Please make comments to the EPA.

It may be easier to sign a form letter and petition. These are well constructed, by knowledgeable, reputable organizations.

Individuals, can sign-on to one of these actions:

Center for Biological Diversity
http://org.salsalabs.com/o/2167/p/dia/action3/common/public/?action_KEY=16490

Environmental Action
http://bit.ly/Un-FrackIt

Food & Water Watch
https://secure3.convio.net/fww/site/Advocacy

Friends of the Earth
http://action.foe.org/p/dia/action3/common/public/

MoveOn
http://petitions.moveon.org/sign/climate-change-solutions/

Public Citizen
http://action.citizen.org/p/dia/action3/common/public/


For organizations, please sign-on to this letter:
http://bit.ly/OrganizationalSignon

“Between now and December 1, there is a comment period for proposed rules limiting emissions from power plants. Unfortunately, the rules currently favor natural gas over green renewables, and thereby encourage more fracking. In fact, if these rules go through as written, they could encourage dozens of its power plants to switch to gas, shackling Americans to this toxic practice for decades to come.”

Industry will continue to make every attempt to change the intent of the rule to benefit only their investment and shareholders return. The corporate PR blitz is on. Attacks on the EPA and green renewable power generation are continuous in mainstream media segments on the EPA Proposed Power Plant Rule.

And my personal thanks go out to American's Against Fracking for the Town Hall Events this last month on the EPA Proposed Power Plant Rule.
https://www.facebook.com/AmericansAgainstFracking

Visit Americans Against Fracking Coalition website
http://www.americansagainstfracking.org/


Tomas DiFiore



Demand Side Energy Efficiency, Electrical Generating Units, EPA Proposed Power Plant Rule, Reducing emission, renewable energy capacity, renewable green power, green renewable power generation,
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Daniel Ferra
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