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U.S. | Government & ElectionsElection Predictions: A Landslide For the “Change We Need”
Monday, November 3, 2008 : On November 20, 2006 I wrote an article, “Barack Obama’s Moment is 2008,” that urged Obama to enter the presidential race, since his candidacy “would galvanize young people and many others toward getting involved in the political process.” I felt that Obama would defeat Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination, and never doubted he would win a sweeping victory over John McCain. Today, even longtime skeptics acknowledge that Barack Obama is headed for the White House. For the first time since 1944 (FDR’s last victory), the progressive movement will elect one of its own to the presidency, and Election Night 2008 will be an evening that activists will never forget. Here are my predictions for the swing states in the presidential race, the key U.S. Senate contests, and California state initiatives.Read More
Monday, November 3, 2008 : Tomorrow is Election Day, and the only suspense in the presidential election is whether Barack Obama only gets about 300 electoral votes—or surpasses 350. But unlike 1996, when Bill Clinton’s presumed victory over Bob Dole suppressed Democratic turnout and hurt progressive causes, the base is excited to vote for Obama—which will pay dividends down the ballot.
At this point, the three unsettled questions that hinge on voter turnout are: (a) will California stand up for marriage equality by defeating Proposition 8?, (b) will Democrats win U.S. Senate seats in Georgia and Minnesota to avenge heartbreaking losses from six years ago?, and (c) will San Francisco progressives keep the Board of Supervisors—providing a check on Mayor Newsom’s power? If you care passionately about these issues, your work today and tomorrow may have a decisive impact. While it’s true that “every vote counts,” remember that your single vote will not swing an election—but your time talking to hundreds of people and reminding them to vote will. Read More |
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