The Somalia scenario casts a long shadow over Lebanon

Given that Lebanon's era of anarchy during the 1975-1990 Civil War was ending just as Somalia was descending into its own, there was certainly much to recommend the plausibility of the boss' prediction. It has taken another 12 months, though, to see just how durable and numerous the similarities between the two situations were. It still remains to be seen how long Lebanon's crisis will continue, but there is no doubting that if matters remain as they are, this country will, in fact, become Somalia - i.e. a failed state.

In some ways, it already is. Even many supporters of the government who insist on its legitimacy disdain its credibility, and the state's writ carries little or no value for a significant percentage of the general population. Elected officials live in hiding because some of their colleagues have been assassinated with immaculate impunity, and even the physical seat of the government is judged - however fancifully - to be in peril. Senior leadership positions are empty, paralyzed, or occupied by individuals with near-irreconcilable differences. Basic public services like providing reliable electricity and water supplies are beyond the authorities' capabilities and perhaps even their ambitions. Poor areas and those associated with pro-opposition sentiment (often one and the same) are even more under-served than the rest of the nation. Worst of all, political foes speak of one another in the language of blood enemies, each disagreement making the next more likely and more divisive.

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