Attempts to foist a constitution on Iraq look destined to fail

Tel Afar's majority Turkomans suspect Kurdish parties of plotting to include the city in any future autonomous Kurdish province, and are fiercely opposed to such a move. The Iraqi Turkoman Front (ITF) has already issued a statement criticising the constitution for neglecting the rights of Turkomans. A source close to the ITF told Al-Ahram Weekly that Iraq's Turkomans were determined to reject any constitution that compromised Iraq's territorial integrity. They were also, he said, worried that violations and voting irregularities would be used to manipulate the referendum.

The ITF has repeatedly complained of Kurdish attempts to force the local population to flee. Kurdish militias, it says, are systematically harassing the Turkoman population, and their tactics include kidnappings and murder. They believe the decision to postpone the issue of Kirkuk until the end of 2007 will be used by Kurdish forces to effect demographic changes.

"Tel Afar was attacked to prevent the Turkomans there from participating in the coming referendum and to prevent them from taking part in December's elections," says Mohamed Jarallah, a member in the Turkoman Independent Movement. "Next Rashidiya, the other Turkoman town near Mosul, will be attacked for the same reason."

Violence also erupted in southern Iraq. In Basra an incident involving Iraqi police and British forces has resulted in the city council suspending its work and the governor demanding an official apology from British Prime Minister Tony Blair. While precise details of the incident are confusing, it appears that two British undercover soldiers had been detained and accused of carrying explosives and false identity papers. They were subsequently freed by British troops, who destroyed the local police station. The incident is extremely sensitive, not least because it lends weight to the claims of those opposed to the occupation that coalition forces, in an attempt to increase sectarian strife, are behind at least some of the attacks carried out against civilians.

"What happened in Basra remains unclear," said Maan Majm, a colonel in Basra's police force. "It seems a Moqtada representative in Basra was arrested by British forces. The two undercover soldiers were caught by the people of Basra who wanted to use them to force the British to release Ahmed Al-Fartousi, the representative. The two soldiers, who may have been observing Iranians who have managed to sneak into Basra, opened fire when the people were trying to catch them."

Areas where the anti-occupation cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr is known to have strong support have also witnessed clashes, with 10 members of the Al-Mahdi army being gunned down in Sadr City.

"Their killing," says Sheikh Abdul-Hadi Al-Darraji, a senior Sadr assistant in Baghdad, "was clearly intended as a provocation."

Al-Darraji believes that the deaths are partly because Moqtada and his followers have rejected the constitution, and partly to keep the movement from contesting December's elections. They have already registered with the Electoral Commission and signalled their intention to field candidates under the Al-Sadr banner.

Cooperation and coordination between the various anti- occupation forces appear to be increasing, and with a growing number of clashes between occupation forces and the followers of Moqtada Al-Sadr the interim government and the Bush administration can no longer pretend that the opposition is restricted to Sunnis.

The Iraqi National Dialogue Assembly, which has started to collect signatures for its petition opposing the constitution, has already gained the support of leading Shia tribes in southern and central Iraq. And the more the occupation continues to push to have the draft constitution ratified, the more closely the opposition will work together.

Iraqis realise that the US administration will continue to push for the constitution, both inside and outside Iraq. They also know that Washington needs the constitution more than Iraq does, and that the Bush administration is growing daily more desperate to present some success in Iraq to an increasingly sceptical public. It looks, however, that they will have to wait.

http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2005/762/re1.htm